Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

did Hunt think all those warnings were wrong/misguided? Or didn't think the consequences mattered / mattered to the right people?

I've been thinking a lot about how otherwise decent and reasonably intelligent people don't see and act on "obvious" things. (FWIW I'd just about put Hunt in this category, and certainly some other ex senior ministers like Hammond).

I think it's really important to understand the importance of group think and unwillingness to break rank for fear of being wrong. Add in politics on top and you've got a recipe for bad decisions being taking by ministers who are not necessarily terrible individuals. (Let me make it clear that I do think Johnson, Gove and Raab are ghastly people. I'm not talking about them).

Obviously this has a coronavirus analogy ... at work, I'm part of a team of forecasters. We've sat watching China go through lockdown in the last two months and yet only two of us have been shouting about coronavirus. Until last week I'm sure that my U.K. colleagues thought the two of us had a corona bee in our bonnets. Of course now that's changed, but it's really, really hard to shift people's convictions and worldview until something dramatic happens.

It's no coincidence btw that the two of us who were early corona pessimists are also the two biggest climate alarmists in our division.

did Hunt think all those warnings were wrong/misguided? Or didn't think the consequences mattered / mattered to the right people?

I'm still troubled by Hunt seeming the best of a bad job now, after all he presided over before.

I'm thinking before it was ruthless survival of the fittest- classic right wing we don't want to continue to commit to funding this type of health service. It needs to be starved and slashed to bring about change. Is it possible that the more plausible view he seems to be taking now with some criticism of the party, is in fact guilt talking?

They are definitely planning on ramping up testing (to above the levels seen in Germany, if I’ve been informed correctly), it just takes time to get everything in place and they really are starting at square one from the perspective of a national initiative. For example, everything in the NHS is done by separate trusts, so there was no overall picture of how many instruments capable of performing these tests there are or where they are. So they had to ask the manufacturers who they had been sold to...

They are working on it, though! I hope they prioritise the testing of NHS staff, it’s nonsensical for people who are desperately needed having to self-isolate for 14 days because they live with someone who may well only have a cold.

If the BBC are going to roll out lots of classic repeats, should we lobby for Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister o be shown on a loop?

If the BBC are going to roll out lots of classic repeats

How would anyone know ?

Nicola Sturgeon has said that Scottish school are going to close at the end of this week - and that it is unlikely that they will re-open before the summer holidays start (end June in Scotland). They're still trying out to work out the detail for those due to sit SQA exams - and schools may will still open for certain categories of kids.

(SQA exams are due to start at the end of April)

If you had a £100k monthly wage bill eg and no demand why would you take a loan to keep people doing nothing.

I can’t see how those redundancies won’t happen. Unless essential like getting ventilator parts etc

misti I 100 per cent agree re groupthink.
Our office has been told in the clearest possible terms to w f h unless absolutely essential.
Yesterday the vast majority went in. I was horrified.
Today the same. They are risking everyone's health in a futile bid to look like good team players.
Last week they all still expected to go on their Easter hols abroad.
Unbelievably there is still a level of denial out there.

I can’t see how those redundancies won’t happen.

Especially if the government uses the panic to remove the need to pay any redundancy pay as an "emergency" measure.

Yes DG it does feel rather like the plug being pulled.

And the rent issue. Otherwise dire straits.

Interesting different angle. Time for a human race rethink?

Reductions in air pollution due to COVID-19 in China have probably saved 20x the number of lives than have so far been lost to the virus.

mobile.twitter.com/MarshallBBurke/status/1236908728227512322

Why are Labour not gearing up to challenge the power grab of the COVID bill .....
FFS Magic Grandpa needs to bugger off and take his henchmen with him and let some of his decent front bench to hold the Tories to account

Why are Labour not gearing up to challenge the power grab of the COVID bill ..... FFS Magic Grandpa needs to bugger off and take his henchmen with him and let some of his decent front bench to hold the Tories to account

I've just been told on another thread that I musn't ask questions (apparently it's panic spreading) and that an informal coalition does mean follow-the-leader and that I have a closed mind for suggesting otherwise.

So the appetite for scrutiny isn't universal. Or cogent.

Reductions in air pollution due to COVID-19 in China have probably saved 20x the number of lives than have so far been lost to the virus.

Not sure which thread I posted it on, but there were stories yesterday of Venices canals not only getting much cleaner, but fish (and swans) are returning. Meanwhile in the Mediterranean, dolphins have swum into silent ports for the first time in decades.

"Going back" should be a tough sell.

QUeenofthorns I had been assuming / hoping much of the delay was because the govt wasn't keen on testing, so Hancock ordered them kept as a low priority / low number,
or that the reagents etc were in short supply in the UK

Otherwise, if the NHS really is this slow to get into gear and organise its own resources for testing,
then once this crisis is over, it needs to be changed drastically, to respond quickly to national emergencies
In today's world, reacting with dinosaur slowness costs too many lives

Christmas TV is going to be crap.

The whole autumn schedule is fucked because so many productions have closed down.

I guess that will give people an excuse to go out and get drunk once after the summer.

If they have any money left.

My friend who works on a magazine show is wondering how on earth they can make 24675 puff pieces on life during coronavirus since there is going to be no other news or sport for months. It's going to be a daily drivel on how you too can survive and keep busy during isolation.

The One Show's Alex Jones's face is going to be pinned to a thousand dart boards by the end of summer as no one can bare her overly cheery smiley face anymore as everyone goes slightly round the bend.

On the plus side, I have it on good authority they are still filming Hollyoaks...

What bits of the emergency bill do you want Labour / LDems to oppose ?

Asking people nicely not to go to softplay / the cinema / pub / pool / gym etc obciously doesn't work
e.g. read the threads of excuses & justifications on MN

What the Opposition should hold out for are checks & limits on power,
e.g. monthly votes in Parliament to renew the bill
and that all the extra powers must be automatically revoked as soon as the Parliament agrees that the crisis is over.

Been talking to my Dutch friend this afternoon who is near the centre of the outbreak there.

She works in a hospital in an area of care which isn't high priority nor essential in terms of preserving life. She works in close proximity to clients but because there is a shortage she doesn't get a mask. She had a cold a couple of weeks ago but tested negative. She said they aren't testing all staff now, and only sending people home if the have a cough AND a fever. So lots of people around the hospital coughing.

She's very worried about being exposed because she has a large family and her mother is housebound due to a severe underlying condition.

She can't get half the food she needs and hadn't got loo rolls. She can't get all the food she needs for her mum either. I said Brexit had had its benefits...

From what I can tell from her and the press the Dutch are nearly as bad as us in how they have handled things so far. They are better in some aspects but not many by the sound of it.

Everyone us going to completely lose their minds when they are allowed to go out to play again.

BigChoc
Less oppose than be forced to justify
A proper opposition would have been briefing journalists and asking questions about Government policies rather than the total radio silence

My gym is still open and I am still going
it keeps me sane
swimming pools appear to be pretty safe places to exercise

The National Trust is making the grounds and gardens of most of its properties free to access

I have to work every day - out on site - for the next three months
and I'll see lots of other people who have to do so to keep the system running

Social distancing and infection control can be achieved without staying in the house the whole time

Everyone us going to completely lose their minds when they are allowed to go out to play again.

Maybe her madge will go undercover in the crowds outside Buck House ?

I'm thinking before it was ruthless survival of the fittest- classic right wing we don't want to continue to commit to funding this type of health service. It needs to be starved and slashed to bring about change. Is it possible that the more plausible view he seems to be taking now with some criticism of the party, is in fact guilt talking?

I get the impression that people like Hunt, who are very likely not customers of the NHS, have had the luxury up to now of seeing the NHS in purely philosophical terms, as an element in British 'political oeconomy', or as items in a budget. All very theoretical, all very PPE but heavy on the P&P and light on the E.

The reality of a service delivering healthcare to millions and millions of people doesn't really compute until it becomes glaringly obvious that a health service is needed. I suspect even now that the very understandable shortcomings of the NHS will be used as part of the pyre on which it will be burned once the coronavirus post mortem is held.

I was talking to my NDNs just now and we were discussing the performance of the some govts around Europe

The consensus was - from our neutral Polish janitor, of course - that Poland had the right idea of a strict lockdown v early, before cases got into the thousands.

Everyone agreed that BJ was by far the worst leader in Europe - only behind Trump in the world-
and should face charges of mass murder if his strategy indeed results in thousands of unnecessary deaths, as they fear.

They were also saying that noone from the UK should be allowed to enter the EU

• they seem to be expecting the UK to remain a kind of plague spot even after other countries eventually get cases down to "acceptably" low level numbers

And I think Hunt believes he is still in the running to become leader of the Tories one day, so he is critical of Johnson's handling of the emergency (i.e. 'what emergency?') to now. Unless a miracle of some sort happens, Johnson is going to bear the blame if/when disaster rolls out in the UK.