Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

Cuts or investment in the NHS were mostly about different ideology, Tory vs Labour, in normal conditions

This crisis is the most serious emergency since WW2;
the issues are / should be of the nation getting through this crisis with as few deaths as possible while also trying to ease the massive recession / depression it causes

Ideology should be booted out on its arse, to let in united emergency strategies
Hunt, ruthless though he was / is, realises this.
So do others

Unfortunately, many in the govt don't seem to have noticed - I bet Gove has, as he is the only one there with much competence & top level experience

I'm relieved that Chrish Graling is "only" overseeing the intelligence services

Doesn't bear thinking if he were Health Sec
(reminder that there are worse than Hancock out there)

Chris Grayling - too much vodka in my porridge

Ideology should be booted out on its arse, to let in united emergency strategies
Hunt, ruthless though he was / is, realises this.

Yes. We have to get behind sensible voices in government where they exist - especially from people who will be listened to.

BCF I haven't heard yet of new corona hospitals being quickly built in the UK.
Surely this must have started, or are the army building tent hospitals ?
Must surely be some activities there

No. No. Why on earth would you think that?!! (said sarcastically)

Hopefully the plans to do this have already been made and they simply haven't shared them yet. Let's hope.

They are still talking about the possibility of using student medics but no sign of any steps taken to make that happen.

The intelligence services should be able to outwit Grayling, I think. It’s probably the safest place to park him.
Hunt must have learned a lot while Health Sec. Wasn’t he the longest serving HS ever? Experience and length of service really makes a difference in terms of detailed understanding and the ability to make judgement calls based on conflicting evidence.

From my earlier post … They are still talking about the possibility of using student medics but no sign of any steps taken to make that happen. ....

Actually the Coronavirus Bill does mention the legal changes needed to expand the pool of health workers - but I have yet to hear of any practical steps or training happening. Anyone?

I really, really feel for anyone in a position of authority who is now faced with making these very difficult decisions on handling Covid-19. But the government seems to be constantly scrambling to catch up even with things which seem blindingly obvious.

There seems to be more messaging than actual action announced at each press conference. Yet even the messaging is incomplete.

For example - it was clear that hospitality businesses would be punished by telling people to avoid pubs and restaurants. Why wasn't there an announcement on that day to reassure everyone that steps to help were being considered and the industry would be consulted asap.

It's fine that the government cannot give detail in such a fast moving situation - but they can always tell us that such and such a concern is recognised and being thought about. It would help build confidence and calm. They look very much behind the curve at the moment and that is not helping anyone.

Neil Ferguson @neil_ferguson

Sigh. Developed a slight dry but persistent cough yesterday and self isolated even though I felt fine. Then developed high fever at 4am today. There is a lot of COVID-19 in Westminster.

From the Imperial College prof in charge of the modelling for the Government.

BCF yes I also think that Germany has capacity for testing that other states don't.

But you have to have enough capacity for all of the steps and materials including swabs, reagents etc - and these are quite specialised materials.

I think capacity across Europe will be ramped up but no idea how long it will take.

Testing and tracing is the key to this.

I'm still reeling from the shock of John Redwood making sense!!

As for Hunt, this is what he's been waiting for, I'm sure, and that's why he's putting himself out there: he still has his eye on the PM job, and has done for years.
In Surrey, there are still those who refer to him as "our next PM".

Personally, I prefer their new Chancellor. I understand he's a decent man and he does seem to have risen to the challenge so far.

Hancock is an idiot.
Hunt is not an idiot, he knew exactly what he was doing. He already has many deaths on his conscience and is going to have far, far more by the end of this. If he has a conscience.
The British public will probably vote for him, they appear to love dying for Tory profit.

Thanks for thoughts guys. Still calm before storm at work. Lots of massive changes, preparation, cancellations etc. (orthopaedic doctors can be found reading medical textbooks looking pale in corners of the hospital)

"Hunt is not an idiot, he knew exactly what he was doing. He already has many deaths on his conscience and is going to have far, far more by the end of this. If he has a conscience."

He doesn't. He's ruthless.

I'm so sorry you're on the receiving end of all this

Sunak is very inexperienced though.

And smaller and medium sized businesses are saying that the economic measures are not being targeted properly. You need measures that allow temporary or partiel redundancy, and money to keep people in work/keep them spending. Not big bailouts for shareholders.

Boris Johnson has set up a five-strong war Cabinet to fight coronavirus. Meets daily, chaired by him, made up by Rishi Sunak, Matt Hancock, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab, plus officials. To be known as ‘C-19’.

I'll wait for the greatest hits, if it's all the same to you.

I can see the meme-merchants having a field day with that one.

"Take that have let themselves go"
"The Rolling Stones have let themselves go"
"Deep Purple have let themselves go"
"The Nolan sisters have let themselves go"
"The Massed Band of the Coldstream Guards have let themselves go"
"Human decency has let itself go"

Hunt said this on Newsnight “In retrospect I can see the cuts to social care were in a way the most silent but also the most devastating.”

Ah, hindsight.

Curious as to how Sainsburys will know who is "disabled" for their priority online slots ... are we going to hear about a massive secret data sharing exercise from the DWP, or will it just be people who "identify as disabled" ?

And smaller and medium sized businesses are saying that the economic measures are not being targeted properly. You need measures that allow temporary or partiel redundancy, and money to keep people in work/keep them spending. Not big bailouts for shareholders.

Just remember it's those shareholders that paid for this government. Masters call and all that.

It can only be categorised as hindsight if people hadn't warned of the consequences at (and before) the time the cuts were being made

I can't be the only person thinking all the things the tories are being lavishly praised for doing right now in a rather slow and pained manner are what the left have been saying needed to happen for ages? If there's the money now why have people been dying on the streets for years? Wrong kind of people?

Surely universal basic income is the only way through this ? And then what about when it's over...

Is there really going to be a no-deal brexit in the middle of a likely covid19 winter resurge with an even more decimated NHS which hasn't done any elective /outpatient work in months?

The COVID19 challenges are huge, but watch also for the knock-on effect on all areas of health. I actually think the NHS is quite good at rallying for emergencies, it will depend on the scale of this one of course, but EVERYTHING else in the health service is going to be fucked*

*sorry, can't think of more suitable word

I can't be the only person thinking all the things the tories are being lavishly praised for doing right now in a rather slow and pained manner are what the left have been saying needed to happen for ages?

I don't know about that, but surely I can't be the only person thinking how quickly it'll all be forgotten (apart from making the poor and vulnerable continue to pay for it for generations) and it'll be True Blue Toryism in no time.

I'd bet my stash of loo roll that 80% of the "effort" being expended to deal with the crisis is "how can we ensure we don't upset our mates in big businesses".

Thing is prettybird - did Hunt think all those warnings were wrong/misguided? Or didn't think the consequences mattered / mattered to the right people?

I would genuinely love to know the answer to that question.

Thing is prettybird - did Hunt think all those warnings were wrong/misguided?

Smart motorways ? Warned of at the time, now it comes as a "shock" they're lethal.

If you show me anything that is flagged as failing or bad from government I can show you reams of newspaper articles warning of such five years previously.

The clusterfuck that is Universal Credit probably being the poster child. Not only the concept (which is deeply flawed) but the underlying IT projects. Have we all forgotten the scheme is so far off track they had to reset it. Twice ? If only someone had said something.

There are a fair number of qualified junior doctors who are studying for PhDs and doing a small number of on call shifts while they study. They have all been told to return to clinical work. We have two non-icu specialists in our wider research group, they're both going to be filling in gaps in A&E and on wards starting next week, we're trying to get their projects to a point where they can be paused now and resumed later. This is in Scotland, assume similar in other nations.

Doesn't address my question - DGR.

What is very curious is despite the loyalty pledge over Brexit and despite the number of MPs Johnson has, there are definitely various factions emerging in the Conservative party again.

We saw the rebellion over Huawei - 36 of largely the most right wing pro American Tories

Blackman, Brady, Bridgen, Bruce, Chope, Collins, J Davis, D Davies, Drax, Duncan-Smith, Fox, Francois, Gray, Green, Hollobone, D Jones, Lopresti, Loughton, Mangnall, McPartland, McVey, A-M Morris, D Morris, Murray, Neill, Offord, Patterson, Percy, Redwood, Rosindell, H Smith, Syms, Tugendhat, Warburton, Wiggin, Wragg

But I do think there is also another more sensible group led by Hunt on the other side.

It's more fragile than appearances suggest because you have all these red wall Tories who have very different interests and priorities to the Atlantic lot.

The NHS is now the main fracture point.

It's curious but worth watching.

There is some opposition that's coming from within.