Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

There is another silver lining to all this; Its knocked Harry & Megan off all the News feeds.

I dread to think what's being done in the dark.

They have done it too late to prevent a crisis but once transmission is under control they won’t get it under control but they can try to stop the x8 bed thing.

How do we know that? Wuhan and South Korea are evidence for what works after an epidemic has taken hold.

We will soon have some hard evidence coming out of Italy; first indications are that R0 fell from around 3 in Feb to around 1.7 in early March (before full lockdown). I think it's highly likely that R0 is now close to 1 in Italy, but we won't know for another 2-3 weeks.

Now we have to work out how to keep it that way.

Well some governments think it’s the case. We’ll see in time.

Now we have to work out how to keep it that way.

Keeping Brits out is one tactic.

Just in case anyone needs to show friends, family whoever, just how fucked we are ...

Personally I'd give anything for a good bit of froth about Harry and Megan, rather than waiting for the virus tsunami to hit. Or even a jolly good old argument about Brexit.

Still, stiff upper lip etc, we plucky Brits must carry on and show the world how to Do Things Properly.

That 'Last Gasp' comment is absolutely disgusting. But I guess we didnt expect anything less.

That 'Last Gasp' comment is absolutely disgusting.

it's actually quite funny. But there's a time and a place. Frankie Boyle on a Friday night, probably.

And I'd rather our PM was competent before comedic.

I'm not sure why boris is relying on the British public using common sense.

I mean, has he not seen the supermarkets?!

agreed DGR this is neither the time nor the place.

clash I should imagine the only time BJ has ever been in a supermarket in his life is to pick up an extra bottle of fizz on a night out...

I just don't know how I'll keep foodbank going...all my volunterrs are 65+

^^ This is going to be a major problem for a lot of the volunteer projects which are so desperately needed at the moment.

I think I read that French food banks ha e closed. I hope their govt have a plan for feeding people.

Just leave this here - some will know why ...

thegrayzone.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-brazil-cuban-doctors-bolsonaro/

Brazil’s far-right government requested the return of thousands of Cuban doctors to help fight the coronavirus in rural areas. Not long ago, President Jair Bolsonaro smeared the doctors as “terrorists” and expelled them.

contd

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Email just in from Nicola Sturgeon....

You can make a difference

As efforts to delay the spread of COVID-19 virus are stepped up, everyone needs to do everything they can to avoid contact with others.

Obviously for our movement, that means suspending all campaigning - cancelling any planned social events and meetings must only be held if using remote technologies.

But as First Minister, I need your help too.

I am asking each of you to now focus on looking out for your family, friends and neighbours - paying particular attention to the elderly or those who have underlying health problems.

We are the largest political campaigning network in Scotland, with volunteers living in every neighbourhood. We have a big part to play.

Together we can make sure we are looking out for those around us. Together we can care for those who are elderly and vulnerable.

If you are well, here's some of the ways that you can help:
• Stay in touch with vulnerable individuals over the phone, by post or online.
• See if people need any shopping, medication or help by running some errands.
• Encourage people to stay active around the house and keep moving.
• Create WhatsApp or Facebook groups to coordinate the effort across your neighbourhood.
Get latest advicee*

I'll be in touch with further updates in the days and weeks ahead.

Let's do all we can to rise to this challenge.

Let’s ensure those in our communities who need our support most are not left to cope alone.

Nicola Sturgeon
First Minister of Scotland

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In the USA, sales of assault rifles are rocketing in response to the Corona crisis

In the USA, sales of assault rifles are rocketing in response to the Corona crisis

Regular readers of my column would know my scorn for UK preppers that don't consider protecting their stash as the first priority .

Germany is in lockdown for the next month, including schools & kindergartens, with childcare provided for essential workers

Strategy is classic WHO model of flattening down the peak, so the hospitals can cope

They did 100,000 tests last week - WHO indeed
Students will be used to track the contacts of positive cases, as too many soon for regular public health empoyees to do this

German govt has instructed hospitals to double their ICU capacity,
helped by the new ventilators & other equipment being rushed through
No expense spared

You can see how well Germany are doing at testing from the deaths to cases ratio (the epidemic may also be "younger" than in the U.K., which has far fewer cases and more deaths).

Well over 8,000 cases here and 21 dead
but health system said to be coping without problem atm

However, we hope to see effect of lockdown peak in about 2 weeks, like Italy

• I've no figures for hospitalisation / duration expected

Noone knows what will happen in germany, Italy etc when lockdown eventually ends
From China, strategy looks like one must keep lockdown until basically no new internal cases
and then relax very gradually - that will be tricky, when people see that cases have hopefully tailed off

We also need to see what the longer term effects are in recoveries, but they take several weeks

China will be a very useful pointer; if their cases start to rocket again after easing restriction, then the world is fucked
Noone else can be that tough with its citizens

Misti imo a big factor is that the German health system normally has a lot of spare hospital capacity,
plenty of contingencies built in, although nothing on the scale of COVID

So they are able to throw everything at every serious case - at the moment
Hopefully, all the mitigation measures keep the peak within system capacity, or that deth rate will obviously rise
Deaths would rocket if, despite all the precautions here, it ever hits homes for the elderly, as in Italy and the USA

Tories in particular sneer at how expensive the German system is
I've never begrudged the high taxes and I'm certainly grateful now

I don't think that explains the difference BCF because so far except in Italy and Madrid, hospital systems are coping. And Italy had a lot of deaths quickly, despite northern Italy having a very well resourced healthcare system.

It may be that the demographics of patients are different - I've seen a compelling arguing that nations where more working age people live with their parents will have more older folk infected and more deaths (so this means Italy > France >Germany ).

It may also be that the German epidemic got started later so you're not yet seeing the impact of deaths that often occur 3 or more weeks after infection.

But I think it is also very likely that the Germans are simply testing more, so a larger proportion of their cases are mild ones.

Noone knows what will happen in germany, Italy etc when lockdown eventually ends

Presumably there is work being done on the diseases and disorders likely to increase as a result of lockdown ? In Germany that is. (I wouldn't expect the UK to waste time with poppycock like that. Not when profits are at stake).

No use saving everybody physically, only to discover they've gone loopy as a result of lockdown and now believe they're all married to the same tree in Norfolk commanding spectacular views of the Nene.

(Any Will Self fans ? Shades of "The Quantity Theory of Insanity")

But yes, the German system seems very well resourced. Countries with high taxes and a big state are going to survive this better than small state low tax nations.

Germany has a higher median agee than the UK, but normal life expectancy not quite as high as in Italy

Italy has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, many very old people who have always stuck to the traditional healthy Meditearnean diet and way of life
(the young don't !)

Germany definitely, & iirc Italy, have higher rates of smoking than the UK

The lack of UK testing obviously suggests more hidden cases than either of those 2 countries, to explain UK death rate