Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

Dmitry Grozoubinski@DmitryOpines (fmr Oz trade negotiator)

1/ An immediate extension to the EU-UK trade negotiations and the transition period is a no-brainer.

The compromises needed to make a deal have to be made at a political level.
The mandates are irreconcilable technically.

Leaders are far too distracted to make good choices.

2/ Argument against: "Let's just leave on WTO terms."

That is not the government's stated preference.
They want a deal, and the current climate isn't conducive to getting one.

Also, ending transition, imposing tariffs and then trying to negotiate to remove them is bonkers.

3/ Argument against: "It will delay the UKs own independent trade policy taking effect."

Who the fuck do you think you're going to get an FTA done with in the next eight months?

The USTR isn't in the habit of negotiating deals via Zoom.

4/ Argument against: "This is just a remoaner delaying tactic."

You're literally no longer part of the European Union,
and as I was so often informed "Brexit is not about trade."

5/ Argument against: "Can we really afford to pay EU dues for an extended transition period?"

Um, have you read the latest budget?
There's apparently literally nothing the government can't afford.

.

They're trying to set it up so we blame each other for the spread of the virus rather than them.

You can see it happening already - people asking if they can do X, Y and Z and being firmly told that they will be responsible for deaths.

And when they do have to enforce things, it won't be because they should have done it in the first place, it will be the fault of people who went to the pub when they shouldn't have.

What is the clause that means insurance cover you if they force it. Anyone know?

Dmitry Grozoubinski@DmitryOpines

One lesson from all this is to never again elect someone who tells you government is easy.

The majority may now experience the consequences of vanity, corruption, and incompetence ordinarily born primarily by minorities and the vulnerable.

Marsha I think "force majeure" is the term
It may help - depending on how the policy is written - if businesses are ordered by the govt to close
Or it may not

We do know that when a business has too few customers because of CV and they close, then insurers have been saying they won't pay.

Overheard at breakfast in my hotel ...
"I manage a dementia care home, my residents do not understand any of this and their families still want to visit them. If it gets into the home it will whip around"
lady on next table
"I also work in a care home, we are expecting it to be very bad"

One lesson from all this is to never again elect someone who tells you government is easy.

Unlikely, but a nice pipe dream.

However it's fascinating - only 4 months into Johnsons reign - to hear so many people acting and speaking as if the current government course is somehow now what they voted for. It's exactly what they voted for. You could probably still find copies of the newspapers where they were banging on about how Boris was the only option lining budgie cages.

The unpleasant uncomfortable and sadly unhelpful truth is the Great British Public have to own some of this clusterfuck themselves. (As will USians). You vote to fuck other people over, and have the sheer brass neck to complain when it's you that's being fucked over.

Thanks BigChoc hospitality union guy on R4 said this am that forced closure would not make a difference. But if it did it would take so long to get pay, years, that it would be too late. Waiting to hear what state aid will be in form of cash. 100k businesses probably already down.

Remember that chaos, instability and a new world order are what this government was elected to bring to the UK, so I imagine, in the words of one R.Reagan (CA) You ain't seen nothing yet !

Every business failing is an angel on someones shoulder.

France and every western country have left it too late to learn from Singapore and China in any meaningful way beyond ensuring healthcare can be provided to as many people as possible. It is out if control.

They have done it too late to prevent a crisis but once transmission is under control governments will have to adopt the basic policies used in Singapore and South Korea to prevent a second wave: widespread testing and contact tracings with access to any public places contingent on health screening.

Oh yeah and Mitt Romney ... Mitt fucking Romney ... was suggesting something that looks very like a universal basic income yesterday.

At least Brexit is going to get heavily delayed. A very meagre silver lining.

Oh yeah and Mitt Romney ... Mitt fucking Romney shock ... was suggesting something that looks very like a universal basic income yesterday.

All the business being fucked over right now are the input to another series of businesses that paid for this government. It will be interesting to see how their buyers regret plays out.

I suspect they thought they were getting a traditional "lets fuck the poor" Tory government they knew and loved. No many - if any - realised they had installed the swivel eyed lunacy of a revolutionary far more happy to wreck it all than Corbyn ever was.

Boo fucking hoo.

At least Brexit is going to get heavily delayed. A very meagre silver lining.

The only way that will happen is when Boris is gone. No impossible. But he won't do a thing. And now he doesn't need a fridge to hide in. He got his election.

This is a must-read, about where the U.K. response went wrong

unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/

"At least Brexit is going to get heavily delayed."

From your lips to BJ's ears
(if you'll pardon the image !)

So far, ending the extension on 31 Dec seems a red line for most Tories / Brexiters

This is a must-read, about where the U.K. response went wrong

TL;DR

Boris

Yes, our favourite Aussie trade guy who someone quoted earlier had it spot on.

I am finding the U.K. response truly frightening. And the most ridiculous thing is that a quarantine would work better in the U.K. than in France because British culture is less bolshy. But it has to be done properly.

seems a red line for most Tories / Brexiters

To be brutal, in a few weeks a lot of them will be ill or hiding from the virus, and some of them will be dead.

Both kids now off school.
Dh still at work.
I'm doing food orders etc from local businesses that offer delivery.
I just don't knoe how I'll keep foodbank going...all my volunterrs are 65+

I am finding the U.K. response truly frightening

Let's hope the people that matter also do. The only response I can think of is to repeatedly remind people this is exactly what they voted for 4 months ago. And grind in the painful truth that this government has already outspent the Labour manifesto - so any spurious reasons about voting Tory "for the economy" are busted - four months in.

They have done it too late to prevent a crisis but once transmission is under control they won’t get it under control but they can try to stop the x8 bed thing.

I can’t see a way that we’ll end with less than the 60 to 80% worst case prediction. And I think all the West lent countries know this. At least Merkel has said it.

Western

There is another silver lining to all this;
Its knocked Harry & Megan off all the News feeds.
Small mercies and all that