Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

There’s a distinct lack of cheerleaders for Govt approach on this (horrifying) thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3845375-Thread-for-NHS-staff?pg=1
Probably because they realise how pathetically stupid they’d sound.
Oddly enough, the thing that got to me most was someone saying admin and back office staff had been sent home so phones weren’t being answered.
My workplace (education, a very different kettle of fish), however, is basically business as usual but as much as possible being done remotely/from home, minimum of onsite visits and teams dispersed across different campuses with buddy systems so as to be able to pick up if anyone is off. It’s not perfect but I’ve been impressed. Fully expecting to close on Friday though.

I do not get how Macron can promise to plug a seemingly bottomless well with his decree.

Macron is a properly educated world leader who did economics as part of his training. He understands that you have to keep people spending where possible, and make sure that businesses are ready to be productive again as soon as possible after the crisis. That can't happen if hundreds of thousands of businesses go bust and millions are out of work and have no money to spend.

If the west had used the time China gave us to get ready, the economic damage would have been surprisingly limited. Many industrial companies in China were expecting production bounce back pretty strongly, but this is compromised now because of the supply shock from devastated western economies.

You can understand that and still not have the money required.

He has put the current lock down at 14 days if he thinks this will end before a year he is not thinking it through.

Not bankrupt means covering overheads and wages of businesses that have no trade.

On R4 you cannot pump demand and spending.

And yet the Chinese have come through this without crippling economic damage. Yesterday my employer imposed strict rules about access to offices that are being imposed in all countries except China, where are factories have gone back to work.

How do you think they have done that? Are you an economist? (I am).

There is no scenario in which there is no economic damage - recession is baked-in certain; governments need to spend to prevent a depression.

are factories = our factories (sleep deprived because I am still working 2 jobs)

Misti they got in top of it. Look at the numbers. Under 1% hit it in China we are heading towards 80%.

Think it through.

How are you missing basic facts as an economist?

That's why you have to stop it being 80% - take drastic action, lock down, ensure businesses are ready to restart as soon as they can.

Harder with less compliant European populations but it has to be attempted.

A well run government (and the Macron government is a competent one, even if like me you disagree with it quite often) has a lot of levers it can pull.

Macron knows that the lockdown will go way beyond 2 weeks.

He said clearly in his speech that it was 2 weeks for now. Rumours were flying about 45-day lockdown and there were hordes in stations, etc. and they are trying to calm people down.

Misti yes that’s why you lock it down. Without a time machine it still will be far higher devastation than China.

Yes of course there will be damage but governments can and should act to minimise the damage!

It's not the time for laissez faire policy.

Yes they should act to minimise damage. Whether than can actually stem tanking another thing.

Ursula von der Leyen has as pinned tweet her video explaining EU strategy for combatting COVID.
A lot more convincing than BJ's efforts, but she is singing from the WHO songsheet

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen

French government will be spending the next weeks looking at how places like China and Singapore have contained the virus using various social control levers like obligatory fever checks, aggressive testing and contact tracing.

Every mobile phone in France received a message from the French government last night.

I don't like the implications for civil liberties but needs must.

Don't get me wrong: the economic damage is going to be huge. But governments can contain the damage and governments that fail to act or are slow to act will make things worse.

France and every western country have left it too late to learn from Singapore and China in any meaningful way beyond ensuring healthcare can be provided to as many people as possible. It is out if control.

Make UK (Manufacturers Organisation): economic prospects looked grim BEFORE the Covid crisis

"Shocking drop in exports could not have come at a worse time ahead of potentially difficult trade talks where the clock is running down fast."

Still COVID to add to this

https://www.makeuk.org/insights/reports/2020/03/11/manufacturing-outlook-2020-q1

Our Q1 Manufacturing Outlook survey published with business advisory firm BDO LLP
is the first edition since the UK left the EU and the first to include data for Northern Ireland.

Key findings:
Output fell sharply on back of weak orders and Autumn stockpiles wound down

Domestic orders improve but still negative, worst run since 2015
Export orders turn negative for first time since Q4 2016
Evidence EU customer sentiment turning away from UK

Electronics turns negative for first time since 2015 as access to semi-conductors and other components dry up

Northern Ireland least optimistic area of the UK
Manufacturing forecast to contract in 2020 by -2.1%

John Redwood @johnredwood
Time for a big package to help the self employed and all those businesses who have just lost most of their turnover. They need more than loans. They need tax holidays and help with payroll costs.

The budget forecasts from the Treasury and OBR were absurd. The virus effects will overwhelm them this month and were visible on Budget day. We need new forecasts based on the realities so we can adjust policy to more realistic figures. We need to battle the sharp downturn.

Wow.

Doesn't sound like Redwood is impressed by Cabinet and Leadership

and wow, even the hard right are demanding massive public spending

David Henig @davidheniguk
So much for super-forecasters... (from Politico playbook)

Truth is the government has been playing catch-up on coronavirus for a couple of weeks. Wanting business as usual when it was becoming increasingly clear that wasn't possible judging by other countries. Hence being behind the curve.

Massive backlash from business. Chancellor being drafted in to today's presser.

Javid must be relieved!

and wow, even the hard right are demanding massive public spending

My thoughts too. Redwood of all people!

Imperial college graph which changed everything.

We still run out of intensive care beds in July.

Duncan Robinson @duncanrobinson
Think we might hear more about "Operation Last Gasp"

Massive backlash from business and Johnson is telling bad taste jokes. He can't take even this crisis seriously.

And by 'suggesting' businesses close, he makes it their responsibility and leaves them unable to claim insurance.

This is truly 'fuck business' made flesh.