Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

"compared with malaria its a trivial disease"

I didn't think maleria has this death rate

and comparisons to the developing world never impress me when anyone talks about how most people in Africa live, so that we should not be complaining about UC or the NHS

They don't impress me now
Probably millions of deaths across the West
No way what happens in developing countries diminishes that

and it's because of wet markets and customs of consuming bats & other vermin in China
So it isn't manmade, but it is caused by man's stupidity and arrogance in how man treats animals;
it's not really a natural disaster like malaria

It was on the 10 pm BBC news.

Breaking news but at bottom of screen

No health system or social care system we could build could cope with this level of pandemic

and if this behaviour in China & anywhere else with similarly dangerous treatment of animals
is not stopped, we may eventually get to the dreaded Epidemic X,

that is as infectious as CV but targets the young and / or has a 60% death rate,
so combines the worst aspects of some previous epidemics from there

NI schools 'will close for at least 16 weeks'

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-northern-ireland-schools-will-close-for-at-least-16-weeks

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone

Malaria kills over 400,000 people a year
but not in the West

Very briefly delurking to post a photo of a patch of crocuses in my garden putting on a fine display. I only pop in occasionally here now, but saw a few pages back that squid was looking for garden photos to cheer up a bit.

I don't know how many of you remember me, but I'm a scientist running a collaborative research support service in the biomedical field, mainly genomic sequence analysis. The clinician-researchers I work with are all putting their research on the back burner and preparing for life permanently on call, even the oncologists and the rare disease folks. I have nothing but admiration for them, and me and my team will be doing what we can to keep things going on the research front. We'll be involved with some of the SARS-Cov2 research as well, if we get funding - will find out in the next two weeks. There is some bloody fantastic real time science happening out there.

I do want to point out that the "two strains" thing is total bunk. Please read this: virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-continuing-evolution-of-sars-cov-2/418 If you want to keep up with the research, virological.org is the site to visit.

On topic, though, I was shocked that the Telegraph said the transition period should be extended. Is this the beginning of something or will it be slapped down?

ooh yes MShip - checking out my new borders is one of my favourite things too. Mine's a mix of new bulbs a few old potted plants, mixed seeds and what nature chucks in there. It looks better than I thought it would - had a big bee visit the last warm day too.

I've a small bit of courtyard that I'm gradually reclaiming from previous paving - this year my flower focus will be Sweet Peas.

"Malaria kills over 400,000 people a year"

CV may kill that number per medium size country
It is feared the toll may be millions

That paper is really interesting Mship

"At current, there is no evidence that any of these 111 mutations have any significance in a functional context of within-host infections or transmission rates."

That was worrying me, as I had read an earlier paper discussing different strains
in case it meant we needed 2 or more vaccines
and also that we would need new vaccines every year - do you have any info about this too ?

Adam bienkov @adambienkov
How Boris Johnson views the coronavirus crisis, according to the Sunday Times.

Rob Burley @robburl
Interesting quote from @MattHancock piece in tomorrow’s Telegraph: “We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy. Our goal is to protect life from this virus.”

Paywalled in a health crisis
Looks a lot like either a u turn or spinning the original strategy because it went down like a lead balloon.

Last night the government plan for the elderly was leaked to Peston

Yesterday morning Tim Shipman was defending government strategy by saying they were trying to avoid a larger second deadlier wave as was the case with Spanish flu.

Alex Wickham was leaking / defending various bits yesterday too.

Poor old Laura must be gutted that she hasn't had her exclusive. Who did she piss off?

Seriously though running coronavirus policy via trial balloons, nudge theory, leaks, stories to your favourite struggling newspaper behind a pay wall is not how to manage a public health crisis. Especially the greatest threat to our population since WW2.

I think LK’s credibility is shot. She’s still an idiot, but no longer useful, so they’ve binned her (ie Cummings has binned her).

Hello MShip good luck for your SARS-Cov2 research funding, from a fellow biological scientist!

The "two strains" thing gained traction because the paper was picked up by the media for some reason and then reported in several newspapers in mangled fashion. And then it spread through social media, as these things do. I never understood why this particular paper (out of the zillions of COVID-19 publications being deposited on BioRXiv and MedRXiv) got noticed by the press in the first place and given such significance.

BTW it looks like policy shift incoming today. Expect restrictions. Could be wrong but politics becoming untenable. Nothing to do with deaths, just politics.

Ffs. If this carries on we are going to end up with a strategy based on what people on social media deem acceptable.

Thousands of people dead unnecessarily because someone's mum can't possibly miss her bridge club or the dog needs walked.

I am not saying I agree with the plan to quarantine the elderly - particularly for four months - what about those with care needs? How will that work?

But it seems that it would be more straightforward to quarantine the vulnerable elderly - who will still be receiving their pension and not reliant on going out to work - than have the whole country on lock down, which will presumably mean that the elderly are effectively self isolated anyway.

Compliance will be an issue - it will be an issue with any group and any form of social distancing. It doesn't mean it shouldn't be at least considered.

Ffs. If this carries on we are going to end up with a strategy based on what people on social media deem acceptable.

Well it's the New order. We ended up alienating our centuries old successful trading partners- based on what tabloids, social media and a few right wing opportunists deemed acceptable.

Having risked our livelihoods and economy based on no evidence we may as well risk our lives too.

Cynical I know.

My nearest town has a very elderly demographic. It’s a nice (though Brexity) place with good facilities, independent shops and a traditional feel. Partly because of this (and also excellent transport links) there has been a recent influx of families with young children. Anyway. Asda was absolutely heaving yesterday, jammed with loads of old people (by which I mean my age, mid 60s, or older) interspersed with what looked like every under-5 in the district, some on scooters...it was bizarre, like some sort of contagion party. I stuck my head in and changed my mind about shopping, I’ll go today when it’s quieter.

Hi, lonely!

Well, I'm going into the nearest big town today because I'm desperate for new bras! (Sorry if tmi 😁)
I'll go to one shop and then leave.
My mums already fragile mh will be really affected by any lockdown but she sees the sense in it.
I'd offer for her to come here but no point with 2 dc in the house :(

Just think if they screw this up we still have to watch them screw up Brexit.

I wonder if them realising that actually, we're all a bit shit at 'blitz spirit' nowadays might get them to change their tune a little re the hard brexit they're going for.

I doubt it, but the economy is going to be fucked by the time that this dies down.

Well it seems we may not be able to get more ventilators. America will make for themselves, New Zealand will make for Asian Markets and Europe will make for European Union. We are no longer in the EU so if no one will sell to us because they need all they make for themselves how does this stupid Gov. expect to buy more ventilators??

It is impossible for me to isolate for 4 months. I am the only member of family that has a car or can drive. I can't walk very far so walking to local shop a no no, nearest supermarket 4 miles away and I use cash, I do not do internet banking ( as I got hacked 2 years ago) never use cards on line only have internet on phone so I will have to go out to shop etc. I pay all bills with cash, I don't have direct debits though some I pay over the phone. I have a dog that needs to go out. So mmh! Isolate for 4 months is a no no for me. And what's the point of me isolating myself because I know if I catch the virus they will not treat me. They will not waste an ventilator on me. I have cancer still, COPD and other illnesses. I will not be expected to live so they won't bother trying. So I am of a mind to carry on as normal but only go out for essentials. ( Cannot buy in bulk, no money to do so and no freezer) so at least I will try to lead a bit of a normal life though I'm terrified Everytime I go out. I still cannot get hand gel with 70% alcohol in it. What if I have 70% of alcohol inside me will that work?😁