Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

Pils won't take kindly to being told they are vulnerable.
Mine either, one is nearing 80 and the other has cancer but they would not take kindly. Even though I'm in an at risk group too.

Ds1 pointed out earlier that covid-19 will be very good for the environment.

Those nasa images of china are incredible...

Wrt to pils - I guess I'll be the evil dil who is keeping their gc from them 🙄😡

I did muse to ds1 that perhaps global travel might change in the future?

Or the attitude to it?

Dh hasn't been home this much in years!

I have a sore throat and dry cough but it's my hay fever kicking in. I'll self isolate though.

All bars, restaurants, cinemas, etc to shut in France as of midnight.
Food shops, banks, chemists, petrol stations to stay open. And tobacconists.

How many travel firms/airlines will survive this?

The era of cheap air travel may well be at an end. For a while, at least. And with changing attitudes to air travel and technological advances meaning many meetings can be done online, it might be the start of a significant drop longer term.

DG Some people who recover from the coronavirus might be left with ’20 to 30%‘ less lung function, and gasping for breath when they walk quickly, Hong Kong doctors said

https://www.businessinsider.de/international/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3/?r=US&IR=T

Also
Wuhan study found some testicular damage,
but more info needed

https://www.mirror.co.uk/science/coronavirus-may-cause-damage-mens-21681342

Global recession seems inevitable
Responsible pols - so not Trump - will be trying to avoid a global depression
at least once the CV peak is over

I have never been so glad that my DM is dead than I am now. She actually died, aged 88, of hospital acquired pneumonia in Nov 2018. Apparently went from totally normal obs to being dead within an hour? (no, we dont believe that either).

But that's a terrifying timeframe.

I had pneumonia in Jan 2018. I thought I just had a fever, as I did from time to time. I fainted a few times in quick succession and was taken in to hospital. I was really confused as to why I was having an X ray but it turned out I had fluid in both lungs. I hadn't noticed shortness of breath at all. Spent 4 days in hospital, 3 on oxygen.

Not sure what caused it and have had one chest infection since, which cleared up with a single course of antibiotics.

It was scary though. I'm scared now, I've got two young kids (young enough not to really remember me).

Wrt to Men will try to find the research... about the Y chromosome making them more susceptible to man-flu- I know crazy eh..... I only now about it because I used to tease DH about man flu and his Y chromosome. We were living in the states in a car with me DM when an article came on about how man flu was real! I think it was Harvard had looked at it, and it was a thought the missing part of the Y was in women - contributing to their immune system. So men did suffer more, because there immune response was not at strong. This was at least 10 years ago . Will try and find a ref for you.

Squid4
Very dear friends have cancelled their joint 60th birthday party next month
on the basis that a joint 61st party with all of us alive and well is more important
its been brewing for several years, dozens of us have lost money on reservations
but we all know its the sane thing to do

then again friends in the hospitality industry are really shitting themselves
and I'm dipping into savings (which I luckily have)

and looking forward to having an extended chill out with my kids home from Uni

thebrag.com/dad/man-flu-is-always-in-season-y-must-we-suffer-so/

Interesting reference to men suffering from respiratory viral illnesses differently

www.virology.ws/2017/05/11/flu-and-the-y-chromosome/

www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.

It is part of a series of measures being prepared by the prime minister, health secretary, chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser to prevent the health service from "falling over" and to save lives as Covid-19 becomes an epidemic in the UK.

Other measures already being planned include:

The Speccy is saying the strategy / plans are from Whitty & Vallance, not the govt

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/uk-quarantines-elderly-as-over-70s-told-stay-at-home

People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months,

under a 'wartime-style' mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days
.....
Other measures already being planned include:
• the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
• the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
• temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
• emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
• the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.

According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong.

It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.

Over 70 not just because of the statistics but because many people in their 60s are still working,
can't afford not to

Wild idea to save more lives:
let people take state pension at 60 iff they give up all paid work

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

As with other products, the main issue is that firms who develop new products - including meds -

would normally choose to go through the approval process first in the EU,
since it is a market several times the size of the UK

and the UK approval & certification processes / organisation for all these products would take time to set up and staff

For no particular reason, except that I found it by accident. Newsnight 1972
m.youtube.com/watch?v=RciM7P9K3FA

In such an emergency as CV, I'd expect exceptions to be made and that every country would just accept certification from whatever country develops the first vaccine(s)

Delivery would obviously be prioritised to that country first

• and then its neighbours, out of pure self-interest, not just friendship

Pesky experts have been daring to criticise the government’s strategy:

maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf
By putting in place social distancing measures now, the growth can be slowed down dramatically, and thousands of lives can be spared. We consider the social distancing measures taken as of today as insufficient, and we believe that addi- tional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately, as it is already happening in other countries across the world.

sites.google.com/view/covidopenletter/home
If “behavioural fatigue” truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions.

Scary stuff

One of the victims today was not 60 or over and did not have any underlying conditions....

That’s not what the BBC is saying, Sos:
The UK government's chief medical adviser said the patients were all in "at-risk" groups from across England.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51889957

The boring underlying point is that we WILL all eventually get Covid in one form or another
the whole focus at the moment is about easing pressure on western healthcare systems
because compared with malaria its a trivial disease
but its one that westerners might catch
shock horror

if the world REALLY cared about health we'd be dealing with malaria, typhoid, cholera, TB and others

if the western world had properly invested in its own social care we would not have this "crisis"