Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

Do we still have a deputy PM ?

There's formally no such thing. In practice there will be someone. At the moment, its officially Michael Gove.

Cummings is less a deputy PM and more an executive-PM.

Reports are that only 2 people under 50 have died in Italy

This, unfortunately, does not reassure me given the age of my family members with underlying conditions.

I find the figure of 80% of death being men the figure thats really the shocking one.

If the death rate amongst 70 - 79 year olds is 9.6%, what is it for 70 - 79 year old men with an heart condition and diabetes? Cos thats my Dad and two of my uncles.

As for the 19% death rate amongst the over 90s, thats my Gran.

The problem with these stats is that they represent someone and if you happen to fit the criteria the CFR for you based on your characteristics skyrocket.

The humanity of this is to recognise that every case is someone's Dad, Uncle or Gran.

The highlighting of the danger to us older ones is important information to help us decide about self-isolation

The sex difference in death rates is something we need more data on, not just age
Being an Aspie, I always hunger for data, in this case % death rate men & % women in each age group - anyone got this ? -
and ideas why

Seen in China, even more in Italy, around the world, so it's not just an isolated cultural oddity
but the difference may vary from country to country

Since the older groups are hit first, one would have expected a higher % of women than men dying, but it's the opposite

All this information would be helping scientists around the world understand this disease and hopefully develop meds and vaccines asap

I was not trying to reassure the young, but highlight the increased danger to us older ones

f the death rate amongst 70 - 79 year olds is 9.6%, what is it for 70 - 79 year old men with an heart condition and diabetes? Cos thats my Dad and two of my uncles.

The death rates are so high because they're not treating them, I presume. Or, not treating them if there's a choice between a 70 year old and a 55 year old. But with ventilators/oxygen, the recovery rates are good.

Ds1s respitory consultant says that the most vulnerable group are older men with comorbidities or an ace inhibitors.

Also hearing from family in france that ibuprofen should not be taken - similar to the chocken pox virus in that regard???

Hypertention, diabetes and use of ace inhibitors seem to be some main factors in morbidity

But surely the ACE inhibitors are largely proxies for those with poor CV function
which is the key risk

Peter Foster
@pmdfoster

Next. The ‘good news’ is that the pneumonia experienced by critical cases responds to standard treatments in the standard way. Ventilation, either ‘invasive’ (ie tube) but also some ‘non’ invasive. ICU medicine knows how to do this /3

Next. The critical thing is to be able to provide intensive care beds to everyone who needs one.
@DrMCecconi
says that is happening in Lombardy and the hard-hit bits of N.Italy/4

And that ventilator capacity CAN be boosted. For example using ventilators from operating rooms - which NHS is prepping for. That’s why regular surgery will get cancelled. /5

Next. This is NOT normal flu. WAY more people than usual need critical care; but when they get it, as noted above

I guess the numbers are grim(mer) because of triage. If we increase are ventilators capacity, our death rate may not be so high.
On the other hand obesity and chronic ill health rates in the UK are significantly higher than Italy

I know some have suggested the death rates for men are to do with smoking and that you, BCF, have said smoking rates in Germany are also high. But, is that a younger person's cool thing or at the same rate for the same age groups as Italy?

True, we have other health issues here. But obesity less so in the very old (because obese people tend not to live so long anyway?).

stats for obesity across EU by age group
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Overweight_and_obesity_-_BMI_statistics#Obesity_by_age_group

swedish More among older people here, I'd say, than younger

Interesting re smoking and obesity. Will be interesting when there's more data on the sex split.

Placemarking. Sorry I've nothing clever to add. There are so many seismic world events happening all at once that I'm feeling slightly overwhelmed. What will it all mean?

The smoking issue will be a factor amongst older French people, most probably.

How reasonable is it to ask my parents to self isolate a bit? They are 65 both in excellent health
They do loads of community stuff now they are retired
My dad has agreed not to go to a big event this weekend...
I don’t wanna patronise them! But.

Of course the worse outcome would be a disease which does not kill, but leaves its victims comatose ... the 1917–28 epidemic of encephalitis lethargica springs to mind.

I’m feeling totally overwhelmed and tbh pretty scared. I don’t trust my government at all which is a shit position to be in with all this. I want a bit of paternal leadership to follow but our leader is a lazy liar!! I think I’ll be better once it’s all kicked off and I’m mental busy
Loads of HCPs have caught covid in Italy and my boyfriend is freaking out about this

I think we're probably looking at a global recession/depression.

Lots of businesses will go under.

It will further highlight the parlous state of the nhs and welfare system in the uk.

It's a seismic socio economic event.

Have a friend in London who is an itu nurse things sound bad there already
Not busy here yet.

What will it all mean?

What I'd like it to mean is to show that international cooperation on science, intelligence, climate etc is essential and black swan events like this make the notion countries and borders meaningless. And that we should look after our neighbours and try to shop locally etc. But what I worry it might embolden is that isolation, protectionism and borders keeps us safe.

Yeah. Pils won't take kindly to being told they are vulnerable.
They are 78 and 74 respectively and borh starting to suffer with health issues.

It's a seismic socio economic event

and environmental ... finally after begging us for years, maybe our planet is going to get some respite.

All civilisations up until now have backslid - some gracefully, some violently. Could we be entering a relative dark ages of these times ?