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Brexit

Westministenders: Crisis, which crisis ?

982 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 29/02/2020 18:25

Main crises facing the government:

. Negotiating a Brexit deal with the EU
. Coronoavirus
. Floods
. Allegations of some ministers - and Cummings - bullying civil servants
. More trouble threatened from Turkey / Syria

Unfortunately with all these parallel crises, we have a workshy lying arse as PM
and the worst collection yet of incompetents in Cabinet
who seem to have decided on a strategy of bullying their civil servants to avoid hearing any facts that don't fit with current Tory party ideology

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Thread gallery
24
ListeningQuietly · 09/03/2020 20:54

mrsL
I suspect that Cummings just wants to break everything and so has encouraged Johnson to be crashingly complacent.
Hancock is a thick yes man
and others know that to be the prophet of doom will be met with project fear
It will be interesting to see how many magic money trees Sunak will find on Wednesday

mrslaughan · 09/03/2020 20:59

Dominic Cummings really is evil. That's the only way you can describe someone who is prepared to play fast and loose with so many peoples lives and livelihoods

RedToothBrush · 09/03/2020 21:16

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
^* BREAKING*
Ministers are so worried about a potential Government defeat in the House of Commons tomorrow over Boris Johnson's decision to allow Chinese telecoms company Huawei into the UK’s 5G network that they arranged for Tory MPs to have briefings with GCHQ today. 1/6^

The briefing was organised for MPs by a senior official from the National Cyber Security Centre at 3pm today ahead of the vote. Ministers also toured the tea room earlier today urging Tory MPs not to rebel. 2/6

One rebel Tory says that at least 20 and as many as 40 Conservative MPs will vote against the Government on Tuesday. The rebellion could be enough to defeat the Government’s 80 seat majority, although this is unlikely.
One rebel tells me this is "an outside possibility". 3/6

Rebels already Include former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and former Cabinet minister David Davis. They are backing the amendment to the Telecommunications Infrastructure Leasehold Property Bill. 4/6

Another surprise rebel is likely to be @LiamFox. He tells me: "You should not be trying to mitigate a risk when you can avoid the risk itself. As a former defence secretary I cannot in conscience vote for something that I believe puts our national security at risk." 5/6

The amendment would force the Government to cut the reliance on Huawei to zero by December 31, 2022.
The expected vote is the first chance for Conservative MPs to make their feelings known in the Commons on the Huawei decision. 6/6

Covid-19 is definitely focusing minds over dependence on China. However are these curious rebels also the most pro American MPs? That makes you wonder about a few things.

However a reasonable large rebellion against Johnson is interesting as despite his majority and requiring MPs to sign up to loyalty to him, that may not hold as strongly as its been suggested. And Johnson still has some crucial differences over internal ideology between the hard right neoliberal conservatives and the Red Wall social conservatives....

tobee · 09/03/2020 21:27

The reason that some people are sceptical of covid 19 being as bad as likely to be is partially down to the fact that people feel the government/media etc cried wolf about for eg SARS and Swine Flu. As well as other reasons of course. Like plain old fear.

RedToothBrush · 09/03/2020 21:52

From 26th Feb

Jane Merrick @janemerrick23
Extraordinary side point on coronavirus that’s just been brought to my attention: after Nicola Blackwood was sacked in reshuffle, there is now no dedicated health minister in the Lords. A government whip, Lord Bethell, will give a statement on covid19 today instead.

This matters because the Lords is packed full of expertise on health, local govt and other areas that are important on big public health crises like this. They are now asking questions of a whip who presumably won’t be going to all the coronavirus meetings.

Am told that there is also now no local government minister in the Lords. What is going on?

Today

Jane Merrick @janemerrick23
Update on this: I asked no10 at lunchtime why there was no dedicated health minister in the Lords since the reshuffle. This evening they’ve announced that Lord Bethell has been promoted to health minister.

Bethell was formerly a govt whip and was already doing coronavirus statements and answering peers’ questions. But good to know the Lords now has a dedicated health minister again

Totally in control...

RedToothBrush · 09/03/2020 22:02

Jason Groves @jasongroves1
Two senior figures in Government have told me today that they don't need to panic buy because they still have their no-deal Brexit stockpiles. Not that the Govt ever said people should stockpile for no deal, of course...

Mistigri · 09/03/2020 22:14

the Korean data, combined with the WHO report on the 50,000 Chinese cases will allow the predicted case load to be nuanced to take into account demographics and universality of health care

Except that also requires you to make predictions that are outside the purely epidemiological realm, like the ability of governments to respond adequately to deliver the necessary resources and the willingness of populations to make radical changes to everyday social behaviour.

Universal healthcare is obviously a factor - right up to the point at which the system becomes saturated, at which point whether it's universal or not is largely irrelevant.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 22:23

red That list of rebels reads like the Atlantic Bridge mob

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BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 22:26

Also has to take account of the willingness / compliance of people wrt rules to mitigate the spread

All the posts on MN about how it couldn't matter in lockdown / isolation if they have a walk, take their dog for a walk, 80 km bike ride ffs

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bluehighlighter · 09/03/2020 22:40

What's risky about going for a walk on your own in the middle of nowhere?

Jason118 · 09/03/2020 22:46

Not many people live in nowhere.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/03/2020 23:49

Some other people may also visit nowhere 30 minutes later and the virus gets transferred
or they may just agree to meet up - people can't be trusted

Isolation can't be monitored effectively if people are allowed to leave their home

Do you follow the experts' advice, the public health specialists
Or are you too speshul
because in an emergency there is no time to tailor to individual preferences

So in all countries, "isolation" means stay home, don't go out at all
Some have penalties for breaking this, ranging from a fine to a firing squad (N Korea)

Singapore has a 24/7 tracking system to monitor people in home isolation
In Germany, there is phone monitoring and the penalties for being found outside your home can be a large fine or even jail, plus paying damages to any person or business affected

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bluehighlighter · 09/03/2020 23:59

If the virus can be picked up by walking somewhere someone else has walked 30 minutes previously, outside, we are all doomed.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 00:31

Touching steps, fences, trees, tables etc

imo, it's far more that they can't be sure you won't meet up with a group of other people, by design or otherwise
They don't trust you and can't consider individual arangemens for everyone

People are much easier to monitor at home, near impossible out in the wild

Anyway, the public health experts have said self-isolation means stay home, no outside recreation
So that is what will be enforced
If you aren't at home when they check, in Germany or Singapore or China or ... - you're in deep shit

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bluehighlighter · 10/03/2020 00:36

Chinese people have been going out briefly. To the supermarket for food, or to take young children for a run around outside.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 00:49

They are in general area quarantine, not self-isolation

Specific individuals or households in China that must isolate for 14 days or whatever are not allowed

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 00:54

If a whole area like a town is quarantined, then rules vary according to country

However, it is usual to at least allow brief trips to get groceries;
clothes shops or other non-essentials might be closed or open
and they may or may not allow a run around town, for adults or kids

Quite different to isolating a particuar person or household from their neighbours,
which is when they would have to stay home, get groceries delivered etc

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Mistigri · 10/03/2020 06:04

Chinese people have been going out briefly. To the supermarket for food, or to take young children for a run around outside.

The rules depend where they live. In January my Chinese team member in Schenzhen was asking us to post him masks so he could leave his house for groceries! I think he's still working from home but my colleagues in Shanghai are back in the office 2 days a week under strict conditions.

It'll be different in Europe though because we don't have the same collectivist culture and it will be impossible to lock down as tightly.

Mistigri · 10/03/2020 06:07

I also don't think that it's necessary to be that draconian because

  • we understand more now than in Jan about the vectors of infection (from hard surfaces yes but the big risk is with prolonged close contact, and people with mild cases appear to stop being infectious before they stop shedding completely)
  • the aim in Europe is to slow the epidemic not to contain it
BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 07:37

Whatever we personally think, in this emergency we need to follow public health instructions,
so we don't waste anyone's time, get into arguments which may escalate

  • or get ourselves in trouble if there are indeed penalties

In some countries self-isolation of individual people or their household does mean don't leave home at all for 14 days or receive penalties,
in Germany that's up to 2 years JAIL or a 6-figure fine, plus paying full damages to any individuals or businesses
with phone monitoring

So if told to isolate - I won't argue !

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yoikes · 10/03/2020 07:48

It dors rather feel like the calm before the storm...
But I've felt like that for nearly 4 years now...

BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 08:01

Coronavirus: A problem unlike anything else Trump has faced

Beeb analyses his massive selfishness and thinks it'll get him in trouble
But - imo, the Democrats need to produce a good candidate, or he'll get in regardless

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51803890

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yoikes · 10/03/2020 08:15

He's barely cogent.
How will he be able to campaign????
But I agree, sadly.
It'll be the virus and its ahowcase of the terrible state if us healthcare that beats trump, not the dem nominee.

AuldAlliance · 10/03/2020 08:15

I feel very gloomy about the chances of anyone beating Trump, even if thousands die because of his idiocy.

Latest graph on French COVID-19 cases is not up to geek standards, but it's on here if you scroll down:
le Monde

BigChocFrenzy · 10/03/2020 08:17

"He's barely cogent"

Didn't stop him getting elected last time
and still has hardly affected his ratings among rightwing voters

  • they just don't care, so long as he is as rightwing as possible, appoints anti-abortionn judges, lowers taxes, keeps out poorer foreigners
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