Westministenders: Crisis, which crisis ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Main crises facing the government:

. Negotiating a Brexit deal with the EU
. Coronoavirus
. Floods
. Allegations of some ministers - and Cummings - bullying civil servants
. More trouble threatened from Turkey / Syria

Unfortunately with all these parallel crises, we have a workshy lying arse as PM
and the worst collection yet of incompetents in Cabinet
who seem to have decided on a strategy of bullying their civil servants to avoid hearing any facts that don't fit with current Tory party ideology

I often wonder about Carrie Symonds, but I suppose she has to be seen in context of her background in the same way that Boris is. Her parents founded The Independent, so all she has known has been newpapers and media, so it must have been a bit of a weird world. I'm sure that anyone else from anywhere else would not have got the jobs that she got in charge of communications for the Conservative Party etc., so her background and connections must have helped her. Equally, her current position with an eco/wildlife charity, despite the fact that her scientific knowledge of wildlife is non-existent and she thinks kissing dogs is, somehow, looking after wildlife. Therefore, she's looking to the future and can see an income mapped out with diaries, memoirs and having a baby with a Prime Minister. I'm asking myself if my analysis is a bit mean, but I don't think it is. She is so much a product of her background that she thinks all this is what you do. Everyone is in their own bubble.

allinaday I think that's a very accurate summation.

Had to eye roll 👀 😂 at Marina Hyde on BJ:

(background is that Cash once wanted to marry one of BJ's exes who had had a DD with him
and he first checked BJ didn't mind him becoming her step-dad, Jeremy Kyle for the uc)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/boris-johnson-prime-minister-pandemic-baby

“I was sitting at a table close to Boris Johnson at last week’s Conservative Winter Ball,”
writes Cash.

Do get your head round the fact that we live in a country where in the midst of our various shitshows,
the prime minister was performing for coins mere feet from some guy who once offered to bring up one of his spare kids. 😂🤦🏻‍♀️
......
Imagine if five years ago someone had pitched you this scenario:

“It’s March 2020.
A global contagion is under way, and we open as Prime Minister Boris Johnson is outlining his strategy to stave it off:
singing Happy Birthday twice while washing your hands.”
🤯😂

I hope Carrie realises
BJ probably thinks "paternity leave" means leaving his children permanently .....

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-courts-emergency-laws-uk-nhs-volunteers-a9384846.html
Government to establish virtual courts as part of plan to defeat coronavirus
Emergency laws will expire after two years and will be set out to MPs as ministers prepare to abandon efforts to contain the virus

Within days ministers are expected to signal the end of efforts to try and contain the virus as the number of confirmed cases in the UK soared to 209 on Saturday.

The government is preparing to unveil an emergency bill to put before MPs which will grant it sweeping powers to fight the disease.

The Covid-19 Emergency Bill will include measure to allow civil proceedings in magistrates’ courts to be carried out via telephone or video, as well as expanding the use of audio and video links in criminal proceedings

This will mean anyone who is forced to self-isolate due to coronavirus will still be able to appeal to a court and courts will be able to continue working even during the height of the epidemic.

Eric Topol
Mitigating #COVID19 @TheLancet, the difficult decisions, is superb Lancet document
by Roy Anderson, @DeirdreHoll and colleagues
"Best estimates suggest a CFR for COVID-19 of about 0·3–1%, which is higher than the order of 0·1% CFR for a moderate influenza A season"

Images cont

Bojan Pancevski @bopanc
^This says governments can either minimise #coronavirus deaths or the economic impact but not both.
Needed: quarantine, stopping mass gatherings, closure of educational institutions or places of work where infection has been identified, isolation of households, towns, and cities.^

The problem is that the CFR is not a fixed number. It depends on your demographics and the stress on your healthcare system.

In Lombardy they are running out of ICU beds and considering rationing of care based on age/prospects of recover (won't treat the oldest/sickest patients).

In Italy the CFR looks like Wuhan not wider China. And no European country is imposing anything like the measures needed to get this under control. Even in Italy the lockdown is being handled so badly that there are still flights leaving Milan -giving people an incentive and an opportunity to get out and spread the virus before the lockdown starts.

Thank goodness the great Brexitannian public had the foresight to vote in Shagger Johnson to build those 40 new hospitals, hire those 50000 new nurses, and shower the NHS with £350 million per week, eh?

Great handle Elements

Tbh what this shows is that western democracies - even ones governed by notionally non-extreme, moderately competent governments - are poorly equipped to handle this sort of crisis. Mainly because ideally you need to take decisions that are extremely harmful to the economy at an early stage ie at a point in the crisis where those decisions will have limited public support. And if you are successful in controlling the virus you'll be accused of overreacting and damaging the economy needlessly.

The problem is that the CFR is not a fixed number. It depends on your demographics and the stress on your healthcare system.

Yep

I think we are going to see some big decisions made this week and next.

The covid-19 emergency bill will have no oversight and whilst I'm sure many elements of it will be utterly necessary I also worry about how it can be exploited for political gain especially given that we have a 31st Dec deadline. A deadline which if our and the eus civil service resources are tied up with coronavirus, looks even harder to achieve.

The extent to which Johnson will pivot from economic conservatism to social conservatism will be interesting. Just how much will he 'fuck business' and put the interests of health of voters first? How many will be collateral damage to him (particularly since his core vote is aged 60+ and the death rates in that age group look particularly nasty)

The next two weeks are the ones in which Johnson either proves himself or proves he fails. And there will be considerable consequences to that.

Ironically he might have no choice but to extend transition if government is so overloaded by coronavirus fallout. Arguably taking a hard line (especially if things are worse in the EU) works better for his plans for brexit.

I keep thinking at least we have body bags stockpiled.

This says governments can either minimise #coronavirus deaths or the economic impact but not both.

You have that choice at the early stage of the crisis.

At later stages, the economic damage happens all by itself, as the individual actors who make up the economy change their behaviour in response to risk.

RTB i think any political calculations are going to be overtaken by events. I think this crisis is the best shot we have at extending transition, because of the risk of raising trade barriers just as a fragile recovery gets underway, and in a situation where (for eg) stocks of medicines may already have been drawn down due to the impact of coronavirus on trade.

Logic dictates at this point, that politically given Johnson has said fuck business and values social conservatism and nationalism and the notion that science respecting individuals (who are demographically more likely to be remain leaning) will understand and support a lock down, that he would be better to act harshly and quickly.

However this depends on competancy. At a time we have Dominic Cummings trying to boot 'sensibles' out of the civil service.

I think the government meeting with broadcasters tomorrow which is about looking into large sporting events can be broadcast rather than have crowds could tell us the direction and level of government intervention we are going to see.

That will decide in no small measure how many die.

It's grim beyond words.

i think any political calculations are going to be overtaken by events

Ultimately I agree.

But decisions made earlier still will have an effect due to the scale of the crisis.

Also a trade deal with the US might be harder as there is going to be no management of the crisis there, just full on survival of the fittest.

The fall out from this means the support for the NHS is only going to grow. As will willingness to fund.

Great handle Elements

I couldn't resist Misti

At some point the nasty truth about the UKs lacklustre approach to universal broadband is going to kick in, with quite a few people unable to work from home due to shit internet. Another thing to pop into the post virus review people will be doing. Formally and informally.

Incidentally how are those "virtual courts" going to work for the public ? How many people can whip up a proper (secured) Skype* connection at the drop of a hat ? Presumably given the fact that these connections are going to carry extremely sensitive personal information there's been a proper assessment of the security involved ? Or are we going to find in a few weeks time hackers were able to intercept someones divorce proceedings ?

If it was the fact it was the UK government, I'd call these plans out as half baked and total theatre. The fact it's the UK government means I will call these plans out as half baked and total theatre.

We live in a society where it's impossible to submit a PIP assessment form electronically, and yet it's possible to whip up a virtual court system in a week ? (Sniffs air ... that ain't any old shit. That's bullshit). As ever and always, feel free to check my working.

*There are non-commercial alternatives, but I will but my stash of 90% alcohol the government has never heard of them.

I think the government meeting with broadcasters tomorrow which is about looking into large sporting events can be broadcast rather than have crowds could tell us the direction and level of government intervention we are going to see.

People who don't go to games will watch in pubs = put themselves at higher risk. This is fiddling while Rome burns.

It might tell us whether they will listen to experts (answer will be: only if they like the advice).

Re virtual courts - the technology is already there (browser based not direct Skype) and to a certain extent proven* - though the outfitting of hearing rooms with cameras etc and bundle management in the mags courts is not really there.

The courts reform programme relies on this for a chunk of savings but was stymied when may called the 2017 election and the justice Bill fell - among other things the Bill allowed a plea to be submitted electronically.

Of course despite this other streams of the reform programme continued - one of which was estate management aka court closures. It was predicated that virtual hearings would allow big reduction in courts - if you reduce the count of courts without virtual hearings you get the chaos we have today.

*it is being delivered as agile so I don't expect the systems to have been proven at scale. :)

Also the original intention was for hearing centres to provide access rooms/booths for the 17% 'digitally excluded' but I have no idea how complete these are or whether they'll be compatible with anti virus wotsits

My work schedule is set by legislative deadlines.
If I do not do the client visits in the legally mandated timescale, they are breaking the law (with public money).

Not every company has their accounts system set up on the cloud (assuming their staff live in areas with decent broadband)
so will wages get paid on time?
and will VAT returns be filed on time?
and if not, the government coffers will run low very fast

Will the covid law allow all other laws to be ignored?

Unintended consequences and all that

Let alone the point that if schools close then lots of grandparents - who are at higher risk - will be left looking after children
as parents who are key workers (nurses, medics etc) will have to stay at work

Plans are being floated to ban over 70s from public events in the UK.

70 is the average age of members of the HoL, (data from Feb 12th).

Re virtual courts - the technology is already there (browser based not direct Skype) and to a certain extent proven* - though the outfitting of hearing rooms with cameras etc and bundle management in the mags courts is not really there.

Talk about missing the point.

How does Joe Public engage with that.

I'll put to one side the fact that PIP and ESA assessments appear to be continuing as normal, giving the impression that criminals count for more than the less able in society.

Plans are being floated to ban over 70s from public events in the UK.

Well there goes the Tory conference.

*so will wages get paid on time?
and will VAT returns be filed on time?
and if not, the government coffers will run low very fast

Will the covid law allow all other laws to be ignored?*

It's up to the government to answer those questions, and quickly.

The tories have forgotten that governing is hard. Easy ride since 2010, but there are some big bumps ahead.