Westministenders: No Australia Don't Have A Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Since Friday, far from letting things calm down, Johnson has doubled down stating that if we can't have a Canada Deal (which the EU says wouldn't be equal because we are much closer than Canada geographically) we will go for an Australia Deal.

This is the latest rehash of a managed no deal package up as something else which the EU have already repeatedly said no to.

So we are on track for no deal.

At the same time Johnson has got very excited about American food and how its great. Almost as if he wants no deal wit the EU to force a shitty bad deal with the us through.

Johnson and his chronies have also been trying to undermine journalistic transparency by blocking access to the lobby to some media outlets in a move that makes us look like a tinpot dictatorship. Fortunately there was a mass walk out of journalists but it remains to be seen how long that can be maintained.

Far from being a clean slate to move forward from its already proving that nothing has changed and old divisions are as deep as ever, if not worse...

The Chinese govt considers them citizens.

Mockers
The Chinese government considers Tibetans to be Chinese.
The Myanmar government considers Rohingas not to be citizens
The Indian government considers that Muslims cannot be refugees.

What international law says and what governments do are often not in alignment

Welcome to Trump&Putinworld, where the big powers do what the fuck thy like just like in the good old days.

China is really an Empire. Same as India. Or indeed the US. One thing those knuckle dragging Us cheerleading Brexiteers don't realise is that the US is really 50 countries - each of which has it's own economy, environment and cultural mores. And it really doesn't matter a jot what the Federal government may or may not say about tariffs if you are trying to sell to TX, CA and VM at the same time. Each of which may have their own take on imports and local taxes.

After "The Grand Tour" went to Mongolia, I read up a bit on it, and was fascinated to see how "China" is put together.

All of which being said, I still say they'll make the moon before Trumps Space Patrol does.

Do you have a predicted time for the Chinese Moon landing DGR?

The Chinese are planning a robot base on the moon. They are considering a human mission in the 2030s, but this would be a piece of flag-waving with no science or economcs to back it.

PMK. Where do I sign up for my free koala?

Seeing that Trump might get 4 more years is extraordinary. For the Tories to win another term in 2024, under Johnson, also seems extraordinary. But anything is possible these days.

One question to be asked of LD and Labour leadership candidates is how far they'd be prepared to work in alliance with other parties. (Swinson and Corbyn seemed pathologically against it.) But it might be necessary, for a chance of victory.

Only a progressive alliance will stop Boris Johnson securing a second win
...this victory will soon be bolstered by the government repealing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, restoring to the prime minister the right to call a general election at any point during parliament's five-year term. The government also will vote through a boundary review, adding seats to the Tories' notional majority as constituencies are made more equal in population, adjusting for the average Labour seat having fewer electors than the average Tory one.
Meanwhile, the government will press ahead with controversial voter-ID plans, possibly deterring lower-income voters.

It follows from the historic realignment taking place from class-based to identity politics, that under the first-past-the-post system, pro-Europeans must be united, just as the nationalist Leave vote stands together under the Tory banner.

Will Labour leadership favourite Keir Starmer draw a line under Labour's failure to appeal to both sides of the Remain-Leave divide, instead cooperating with the Lib Dems to unite the pro-Europe vote? Uniting the nation's Remain majority would counter Johnson's nationalist coalition, conceivably even confining him to one term.

(Would probably have to stop calling it a remain alliance and say Progressive Alliance or something.)

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/barnaby-towns-on-why-lib-dems-and-labour-must-work-together-1-6497413

I wonder how accurate that stat about Labour seats having fewer electors is now?

Labour need more votes for a majority than the Tories on average

In spite of the 51 minorities in China, 92% of the Chinese population are Han, 97% in Taiwan. They form 16% of the world's population. Just as well they have one of the most pervasive secular ideologies on earth that stresses stability and living in harmony and fulfilling your duty according to your position in society . Annexing minority areas was a source of power for Mao, a way of emulating the first Qin emperor who first united China with a brutal repressive regime. Prior to that areas like Tibet (which being a theocracy little changed in centuries was not exactly a beacon of enlightenment and human rights itself) were left to their own leaders and culture providing they paid tribute to China. China was not even always ruled by the Han, the last imperial dynasty, the Qing (1644 -1911) were Manchu from the North. There was a long history of threatened invasion from the north, the Yuan dynasty were Mongols, but once in power they tended to be inclusive.

Professor Stephen Chan argues that you should not look at China in Africa with a western perspective shaped by enlightenment / colonialism but through Confucian morality (and Xi does play heavily on the mandate of a confucian emperor). They are in Africa because China faces issues of internal stability. It needs to keep a growing middle class happy, through economic prosperity but also meeting the requirements of their changing lifestyle. It is not just raw materials for industry, and a venue for cheap manufacturing now that South Asian economies are out growing and diversifying from China (with the possible exception of Cambodia which at the moment they are eating up), but also things like red meat. However the confucian model gives China the role and responsibility of taking a fostering paternal role to less developed economies. Where African countries have cried colonialism / empire building they have been quick to roll back on activities that might be seen in that light. The African Union does have a homegrown project for greater working together, Agenda 2063, that looks to have some similar aspirations to a trading and political bloc a bit closer to home au.int/en/agenda2063/overview . Is it facing a barrier from a China flexing its power to dictate how it develops, or facilitation? ASEAN countries have succeeded in dictating their own development, eg Vietnam swivelling to Japan for the infrastructure it needed for its phenomenal growth.

The horrible developments in Xinjiang were a sign of Xi's desperation to deal with the possibility of political unrest, particularly in the minority areas he has inherited, but also more generally amongst the rural poor, many of whom are the migrant labour who keep the cities going. They are experiencing increasing inequality as China develops and peasants have a particular place in the Confucian hierarchy and history.......

That is quite enough on his plate without empire building

Trump WILL Win in November.
The Democrats are years away from having a candidate who can beat him.
BUT
It is by no means certain that the Republicans will control either house come November

Hester
After 2015, alliances and coalitions are dead until FPTP goes.
The New European is still far too London centric in its outlook.

Roll on April when we have a labour Leader who is not a discredited lame duck loser
who can hold Johnson and his moronic colleagues to account

"China is slowly uniting Africa as we speak"

One side effect is the thousands of African students now trapped in Wuhan with very little food or money and naturally anxious both about Coronavirus and where their meals will come from next week.
Some unis are proving limited amounts of veg and rice as emergency supplies, but their student associations have called on their govts to evacuate them.

There are about 80,000 students from African countries in China, 5000 in Wuhan, attracted previously by free uni education and grants for living expenses

ListeningQuietly I don't think it was talking about formal coalitions; just loose, temporary agreements to stand down in seats where the non-Tory vote is split.

Trump may not win in November. In reality his win in 2016 rested on a few hundred thousand votes in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, none of which have seen any major changes or new investment (and in fact job losses and bankrupt farms). These voters tended to have voted democrat before.

It could be tight again.

Hester
I don't think it was talking about formal coalitions; just loose, temporary agreements to stand down in seats where the non-Tory vote is split.
But that is such an outdated view of the way things are now
people vote on issues not parties
hence why really good Labour candidates lost their seats because Corbyn was toxic
and why the Libdems were utterly unable to capitalise

Until there is a leader on the opposition benches who can show the Tories up for what they are, Johnson is safe

Malylis
Trump can only be beaten by a candidate who appeals to a broad spectrum
the Democrats do not have that

Yet.

Lets see, as said, Trump's election mainly centred on swing voters. These are not the out and out partisans that the other republicans are.

But see how quickly the idea has set about that he won because he appealed more than Hilary? He lost the popular vote spectacularly.

One question to be asked of LD and Labour leadership candidates is how far they'd be prepared to work in alliance with other parties.

I do wish they would get their act together on this one.

The government also will vote through a boundary review, adding seats to the Tories' notional majority as constituencies are made more equal in population, adjusting for the average Labour seat having fewer electors than the average Tory one.
Meanwhile, the government will press ahead with controversial voter-ID plans, possibly deterring lower-income voters.

These are two areas where I think they could come unstuck because they have got into power because of the 'Red Wall' Tories, who are the ones likely to miss out.

I also think (hope!) that they are taking their eye off the ball in the south east and London especially. With my own constituency, voters being displaced from London because of high house prices are not the automatic Tory voters of say 50 years ago. I may be clutching at straws here. I do expect Johnson to fail in due course, and it could easily be because of his own behaviour.

Motheroffour
RLB will do as Corbyn tells her.
The only candidate who can beat Johnson at the silly verbal games is Starmer

Malylis
Trump beat Clinton in the same way Johnson beat Corbyn
the assumption that the buffoon was all hot air
the permanent demonisation by the right wing press undermining a basically decent person
the absolutely dire public appearances by one candidate and splendid rabble rousing by the other.

Hillary lost, not Trump won.
Ditto the UK in December

Trump will only be beaten by a winner
the Democrats do not have one

Again that's not correct.

Clinton won the popular vote, by a huge majority.

Trump won the electoral college vote based on swing voters in 3 states.

and no, it wasn't Hilary lost not Trump won, Trump won BUT the reasoning behind his victory has been completely taken over by revisionist. As the Tory victory is being now.

Italy’s Sardines show Labour how to beat Boris Johnson in 2024

Maybe the UK needs its own Sardines? Remainers could coalesce into a non-aligned 'pressure group' forcing the parties to adopt progressive stances.

This is a new, progressively-minded grassroots movement, unaligned to any political party. It sees ordinary Italians, who are sick of the hateful rhetoric and policies of Salvini and the far right, cram into public squares to protest.

Navigating our way forward won’t be easy. But events in Italy last week show us the way. In the northern region of Emilia-Romagna, Matteo Salvini’s far-right force lost their bid to take power.

The genius of this project is not just its size and how quickly it has grown, but also its sheer simplicity. It all started with four flatmates who were despairing at the state of the country, and who gathered for dinner one evening last November. They asked themselves: what next for progressives?.

(Remind you of Led By Donkeys?!)

The Labour Party and its next leader are the only ones who can make this progressive coalition happen. They will need to reach out to the Greens and Lib Dems, and seek a more formalised approach to tactical voting in the next parliamentary election, ensuring the progressive vote is maximised in all places. There cannot be a repeat of Kensington, where the Labour and Lib Dem vote was split, allowing the Tories to slip through by 150 votes.
This progressive alliance should embody the political spirit of the Sardines – one that is open, collaborative and empowering. Politics is meant to be an active process, but far too often, it feels like something being done to you. To create a popular ‘people’s manifesto’, this new alliance could invite members of the public into the policy-making process for the first time ever ahead of the next election in 2024, using citizens’ assemblies and open policy forums.

Well, you can dream...

labourlist.org/2020/02/italys-sardines-show-labour-how-to-beat-boris-johnson-in-2024/

Malylis
The popular vote is irrelevant (the margin was only 2.1%)
the fact is that Clinton lost in the electoral college (by ten states)
and the only way the Democrats can win in November is to have a candidate who can win in the electoral college
they don't

If you go back to 92-97 Major's Government was falling apart because of sleaze and the expenses corruption plus his right wing Eurosceptics undermining him.

At the same time Smith was making the Labour party look competent, and after his sad demise, Blair came and maintained tight discipline to make New Labour electable. So you had failure being opposed by success.

At the moment it's not there in the current Parliament. It could come - Johnson's Government aren't full of people with talent, they want a hard American facing Brexit, but I do expect push back from the electorate here because we value the NHS, better food standards and e.g.data roaming. I see this as not being immediately but within two years. The new Labour leader could then grow into the job and look like the PM in waiting.

Meanwhile, we Regainers need to absolutely make sure that this is Boris's Brexit. If in the unlikely event it succeeds he can have the credit.