Westministenders: No Australia Don't Have A Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Since Friday, far from letting things calm down, Johnson has doubled down stating that if we can't have a Canada Deal (which the EU says wouldn't be equal because we are much closer than Canada geographically) we will go for an Australia Deal.

This is the latest rehash of a managed no deal package up as something else which the EU have already repeatedly said no to.

So we are on track for no deal.

At the same time Johnson has got very excited about American food and how its great. Almost as if he wants no deal wit the EU to force a shitty bad deal with the us through.

Johnson and his chronies have also been trying to undermine journalistic transparency by blocking access to the lobby to some media outlets in a move that makes us look like a tinpot dictatorship. Fortunately there was a mass walk out of journalists but it remains to be seen how long that can be maintained.

Far from being a clean slate to move forward from its already proving that nothing has changed and old divisions are as deep as ever, if not worse...

Well we all knew we were well and truly fucked, but it's excruciating watching it play out

BBC news: "Farmers want to ensure that they aren't hit with unfair restrictions"

....at the same time that Gove himself is saying that there will be Border checks.

It's a bit fucking late to realise that

Shoaib M Khan @ShoaibMKhan
Missed this eminently-sensible use of Parliamentary time yesterday.

"A Bill to require persons bringing claims under the Human Rights Act 1998 to satisfy a test of reasonableness and equity".

Or, the Human Rights Are Just For Good People Act.

"A Bill to require persons bringing claims under the Human Rights Act 1998 to satisfy a test of reasonableness and equity".

Which can still be overturned by the ECHR which the UK hasn't left ...

Except DGR the no equivalence for financial services plays right into Johnson's 'the EU is bullying us' game.

And ?

He can play to the home crowd all he likes. It won't wipe out a jot of the EUs stance.

And trying to stoke anti-EU sentiment might sound a grand idea in no. 10. It will be less grand if the EU responds in kind, and all of a suddenly an English accent means you aren't welcome at that resort. Or hotel.

If that's the game Boris is playing, he needs to learn "asymmetric" on a treble-letter and word score, using the "m" out of "moron" that I have just laid.

A bill brought in by Chope, supported by Davies and Bone
.... exactly the nasty kind of bill, trying to roll back human rights, that you'd expect from that crew

The Human Rights Bill for Our Sort of People
(human rights for the rich hard right)

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Having an Irish govt (or a significant part of it) working for and advocating a united Ireland
is not something the British govt or NI has had to deal with for a v long time
and not at all since the GFA was signed. It’s a big change.

Also, spare a thought for the DUP
< 😁 >

They’ve gone from being the most powerful political forces in the UK to a GB bit player and now face seeing their old adversary triumphant.

ciaran the euro courier 🇪🇺🇮🇪 @donnyc1975

Switzerland,a country accustomed to carrying out customs checks on all goods has an error rate of around 20%

• anything from incorrect weight to the stated value of the goods which originate from the invoice sent to the agent from the importer/exporter- 1/

This results in the truck being stuck at customs whilst the agent has to communicate with the importer / exporter to correct the invoice .

What happens if it’s 5pm and the customer has gone home for the night ?
Yup - the truck isn’t moving . 2/

You can have as many 24 hour customs desks as you like in Dover but how many small business will have 24 hour offices ?
I bet it’s not many !
That means any incorrect declaration won’t be corrected until the following day 3/

Let’s assume the 20% rate in CH is accurate
( it is because the agent in Basel told me )

• imagine a 20% rate on Circa 10k trucks leaving the U.K. / entering Calais

• that’s around 1000 in each direction .

Dover only has spaces for 500 trucks

What will happen to the merchandise industry in the U.K. supplying all the bands around Europe ?
Well - a lot of it is printed last minute and sent out with no need for checks/customs .

Normally loaded as factory closes ( I do this) so a load would be in Munich the next day .

What happens if it gets to dover and stopped and the papers are questioned ?
Load doesn’t move .
Driver doesn’t move .
Customs closed until next morning .
Means that load won’t move until following lunchtime .

What’s going to happen in Calais once all the holding lanes are full up with trucks with incorrect declarations?
The traffic will back up on motorways .
Remember the mayor of Calais “ as long as papers are correct there won’t be a problem and you can come into the port “....

RTB
And in 14 months time we have a census
in which accurate recording of who is in the country will guide financial planning for a decade

and inaccurate counting will be blamed on Local Authorities
who will then have their budgets cut because there are less people resident than currently estimated

Finally caught up with the new thread! (Thanks as usual to RTB et al). Going back to the posts about the state of the opposition, before and after the election why is it taking so long to elect the new Labour leader?Is it for the Corbyn faction to try and shore up support and consolidate their position in the party? It reminds me of 2010 when the Tories were able to get traction with their narrative about away we ‘needed’ austerity and reinforce the idea Labour ‘maxed out the country’s credit card’ there was no effective opposition then either.

Project Fear becomes reality
Not many job loses, but already an attrition in options for Brits
n26.com/en-gb

LBC reporter sceptical about Brexit being the reason for N26's departure - other sources appear to agree:

"Nearly a quarter of a million customers of German digital challenger bank N26 will have their accounts closed in April after it announced it will be exiting Britain, pinning it on Brexit."

"However, the bank launched in Britain in October 2018, just five months before the UK was originally due to leave the EU."

"Industry insiders have questioned whether it is closing here because the bank had failed to attract enough customers."

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-7991653/German-challenger-bank-N26-closing-UK-accounts-April-Brexit.html

"It didn’t take long for rivals to poke fun at N26."

Dutch startup Bunq:

"Dear UK bunqers"
"You might have heard one of our Fintech peers is leaving the UK." "Fear not:bunq is here to stay."
"Based on the current rules and regulations, we see no (regulatory) reason to leave the UK.In fact, we love you guys!"

Oh look Clav is along to copy and paste unthinkingly.

What a great contribution.

Not unthinkingly at all - I heard the business reporter on LBC first.

What a great contribution

Thanks Malylis - that's the nicest thing you've said to me for months!

I heard about it from N26 customers, rather than pontificating Brits who know nothing about how the bank works in reality.

N26 are expanding in the EU and have just got a USA licence
but are pulling out of the UK, citing reciprocal licence agreement

try to extricate that from Brexit if you wish, but the attempts get more desperate as the months go by.

Isn't it just that N26 would have to go through a lot of red tape ahead of Jan 2021 for what was obviously going to be a peripheral and relatively small market for them? Companies don't have to serve a market they don't think is profitable for them (there is going to be a lot more of this btw).

It's obviously Brexit-related in that they wouldn't have pulled out of the U.K. otherwise.

Hardly desperate if there are multiple sources claiming the same thing:

"The excuse has been roundly mocked.One user responded to a statement posted on Twitter:'This is a rubbish excuse; we were already going through Brexit when N26 launched here."

'N26 just failed the UK market spectacularly and is now blaming Brexit on its withdrawal'.

'Another said: 'Sounds like you failed in the UK and are looking for an excuse'.

"Sarah Kocianski, head of research at fintech consultancy 11:FS, wrote on Twitter: 'No-one in the industry is really surprised by this.'Why bother getting, and maintaining a licence (along with regulatory capital) in a market where you face stiff competition, when you could go many other places where you don't?'

"N26 denied the move was due to poor performance or capital requirements needed to obtain a UK banking licence"...

wow a user on twitter, how expert

No-one in the industry is really surprised by this.'Why bother getting, and maintaining a licence (along with regulatory capital) in a market where you face stiff competition, when you could go many other places where you don't?'

Yes, exactly. Why would you bother with a market that is about to get drowned in red tape when you can do more profitable business elsewhere? Obviously this is about Brexit.

pontificating Brits who know nothing about how the bank works in reality

Bunq (N26 rival) is a Dutch startup company - they only launched in the UK in October 2019!

"Challenger bank bunq is on a path of rapid growth as has announced its launch in the United Kingdom.Following successful launches in Germany, Austria, Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium, European challenger bank bunq is now available in all European markets."

www.uktech.news/featured/challenger-bank-bunq-launches-in-the-uk-20191002

Companies pulling out will often have a combination of reasons, rather than just one
Sometimes Brexit is a killer in itself; sometimes it's just the final straw in a series of problems.

If the bank got fewer customers than they estimated in the first year or so,
then are faced with a lot of red tape & extra costs from Brexit, plus the possibility of a Brexit recession,

then yes Brexit could decide them not to invest a few years building their UK business, but just pull out instead

🎵🎶🎶🎵

and of course competitors will gloat and try to take advantage when one competitor goes out.

in fact, some UK or foreign firms may deliberately choose statements & language to attract Brexiter customers

Don't you know nothing will ever be due to brexit.

A company stating it will be dismissed, whilst at the same time other company statements which day they aren't leaving because of Brexit (when its obvious this is just PR) will be taken as gospel.

No critical thinking will be applied at all.

It'll be interesting to see what other small banking players do.

But the idea that N26 leaving the U.K. isn't about Brexit is basically nuts, given that you can now open an N26 account from Latvia but not the U.K.

It's not that the U.K. is an unattractive market for personal banking (obviously it's not) but that it is a market that is about to get much more expensive to serve. There will likely be a bit of a shake out among smaller players and I doubt N26 will be the only ones that decide it's not worth it.

People aren't going to go short of banking services but they may have less choice.