Westministenders: No Australia Don't Have A Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Since Friday, far from letting things calm down, Johnson has doubled down stating that if we can't have a Canada Deal (which the EU says wouldn't be equal because we are much closer than Canada geographically) we will go for an Australia Deal.

This is the latest rehash of a managed no deal package up as something else which the EU have already repeatedly said no to.

So we are on track for no deal.

At the same time Johnson has got very excited about American food and how its great. Almost as if he wants no deal wit the EU to force a shitty bad deal with the us through.

Johnson and his chronies have also been trying to undermine journalistic transparency by blocking access to the lobby to some media outlets in a move that makes us look like a tinpot dictatorship. Fortunately there was a mass walk out of journalists but it remains to be seen how long that can be maintained.

Far from being a clean slate to move forward from its already proving that nothing has changed and old divisions are as deep as ever, if not worse...

And then Donald is a lame duck president which might change the game. Plus senate elections.
The Donald is incredibly likely to win the presidential election
But he is equally likely to lose both houses.
Either way, the UK trade deal is stress he does not need
and I cannot see why any country that trades a lot with the UK will risk signing a deal before the UK/EU one is done
because they would not want to jeopardise their EU relationships
just to keep the UK sweet

The Donald is incredibly likely to win the presidential election But he is equally likely to lose both houses.

By "lame duck" I meant he will win. However he will lack the incentive - and the support - to do to much in his final term. Unless we see an earthquake in US constitutional affairs.

It seems to me an awful lot hinges on China. For a country which could pretty much wipe the US out as an international power, they've been remarkably patient. At least to outside eyes. Maybe it's just their way. A country which talks of it's 50 year ambitions for the bits of Rover they bought up can afford to be relaxed about a mere 8 years of Trump.

I know I'm being optimistic but Trump's victory in 2016 rested on a few hundred thousand swing voters across about 5 states.

There is a chance he won't win

I know I'm being optimistic but Trump's victory in 2016 rested on a few hundred thousand swing voters across about 5 states. There is a chance he won't win

Maybe the penultimate season of "Veep" was a prophecy

Three-Way tie in Ireland.

SF have suggested a game of scissors-paper-bomb

The Donald is incredibly likely to win the presidential election
But he is equally likely to lose both houses.

Isn't that what will make him a lame duck - he won't be able to get his legislation through?

This is a worthwhile, descriptive read for a politically (but not meteorologically!) quiet Sunday.
Although it did make me a bit sad, as I share so many of the experiences and sentiments in it. I still can’t believe it, and still feel disconsolate.

Citizenship of the European Union has been that of my adult life, a status to which I aspired and became gratefully accustomed. I reflect with horror that this existence has been wrenched from me by the lynching of January 31st.

drb.ie/blog/comment/2020/02/05/death-of-a-cosmopolitan

The three way tie in Ireland, which apparently no one predicted.
Even though Brexit didn't feature in the Republic's election, I cannot see how this result won't lend support to a re-united Ireland.

Even if the Republicans lose control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives*, if Trump wins he can still use executive orders, which are unlikely to face any serious legal challenges with a Trump-stuffed judiciary.

*could be a big 'if', depending on the extent of gerrymandering and voter suppression

But he is equally likely to lose both houses.

That's a highly optimistic prediction given gerrymandering and electoral fraud.

Tory activist jailed for violent threats against Yvette Cooper

His party showed him surprising support until his conviction after a guilty plea

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/07/tory-activist-jailed-for-violent-threats-against-yvette-cooper

Joshua Spencer, who received a character reference from the Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns,

attended Cooper’s general election count in December as a representative of the Conservative party despite being under investigation by West Yorkshire police after his arrest.

The 'SF surge' was predicted but its scale has taken everyone by surprise. Brexit as it affects the prospect of Irish reunification has been a factor in this election, but homelessness/housing and the health service have been top quality of life issues.

The nationalist element contributed to Fianna Fail's vote share - older voters identify FF as solid on the question of reunification but wouldn't give SF their first preference vote (with the Single Transferable Vote system you can vote for all the candidates in your consituency, if you so wish, in order of preference). My mother voted FF then Green then SF. She would rather chew off her right arm than vote FG.

This is going to give the DUP a massive case of the heebie jeebies, and will also affect other parties in NI. SF is now an island-wide party of the left, with a chance to wield power and have an impact on the future of NI in Stormont and from Dublin and via Brussels.

This is going to give the DUP a massive case of the heebie jeebies, and will also affect other parties in NI. SF is now an island-wide party of the left, with a chance to wield power and have an impact on the future of NI in Stormont and from Dublin and via Brussels.

That's a shame.

Of course the UK now has no counter to anything the RoI SF contingent might get up to in Brussels.

SF have suggested a game of scissors-paper-bomb

God you're droll.

Re Trump
mistigri
More and more of the big states are moving to independent electoral commissions
peregrina
I read a deeply depressing article this morning about he can do damage without legislation (Economist)

mathanxiety
I get the feeling that Sinn Fein having a post troubles leader is a mahoosive selling point that FF and FG totally missed ... the SF / alliance mindset is for those who were under 10 when the GFA was signed

Brexit as it affects the prospect of Irish reunification has been a factor in this election

I've seen polling putting Brexit behind "other misc" in terms of influencing voting choices. Is it an issue with voters at all?

Of course it's an issue for the parties, but for Irish voters?

It's a bit like in the EU: Brexit remains a reasonably important policy issue for policy makers (though not the most important issue by any stretch of the imagination) but for voters it is a complete non-issue.

I was outside gardening this morning and a man walked past handing out leaflets for the coming local elections. I conversed politely but said I couldn't vote, it took a while for the cogs to turn but he eventually linked it with Brexit. He actually had to search his memoirs for the term "Brexit", as if he hadn't heard or thought about it for months!

Memoir = memory obv.

But striking that the first French person I've discussed Brexit with in a while couldn't even remember the word for it.

Yes, it looks as if the 18-24 cohort voted SF in big numbers, while FF got the over 65 vote (the vote of people who first voted FF when it was more appealing to the urban working class than it is now). I would predict the left-nationalist mantle is about to be passed here.

I've seen polling putting Brexit behind "other misc" in terms of influencing voting choices. Is it an issue with voters at all?

Of course it's an issue for the parties, but for Irish voters?

Brexit itself isn't an issue for voters or for the parties - there is nothing Ireland can do about Brexit except deal with the fallout.

But part of that fallout is the future of NI. Brexit will have massive ramifications wrt NI. Voters can taste the potential for change.

Brexit will result in a strain on public coffers depending on the hit to business and agriculture and so, concerns about the health service and about housing are somewhat Brexit related too. The voters are saying that regardless of rocky times ahead - in fact because there will be economic difficulties thanks to Brexit - the government needs to prioritise human services, not balancing of the books.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/09/sinn-fein-to-try-to-form-ruling-coalition-after-irish-election-success

Many in Fianna Fáil, stung by the backlash over their confidence-and-supply deal with Varadkar’s outgoing government,
would prefer a deal with Sinn Féin than another centrist alliance.

Ireland’s single transferrable vote system of proportional representation means it could be Monday, Tuesday or even later before all Dáil seats are allocated.

With 96% of first-preference votes tallied on Sunday,
Sinn Féin had 24.1%, with Fianna Fáil on 22.1%, Fine Gael on 22.1%, Greens on 7.4%,
and small leftwing parties and independents comprising the rest.

Brexit wasn't an issue in the Irish GE, since Varadkar's strategy had genuine cross-party support.

However, I wonder if the upsurge in English Nationalism that same out into the open with Brexit and the disgraceful anti-Irish sentiment expressed by some UK Brexiter MPs and newspapers,

caused some Irish voters to choose the most militant form of Irish Nationalism in reaction

Interesting that the surge in NI during the UK GE and the May EP elections was mainly to the non-sectarian Alliance Party

• there'll still be a lot of people who experienced the Troubles directly

The Republic suffered only a few terrorist attacks, deadly as some were
(and reports that maybe UK security forces were behind some of those attacks, or planned attacks there)

not everything is about Britain. The exit poll makes that clear. Brexit, immigration not big issues to electorate.

It does lead me to wonder about how it will affect the negotiations now with the EU. For all Johnson's attempt to whitewash out Brexit, it isn't done and won't be.

Housing is the thing.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/find-out-if-your-local-td-is-a-landlord-or-owns-multiple-properties-1.3393692%3fmode=amp

It costs about €1000 pm to rent a 3 bed semi in an average estate in the small town where I live. Three years ago it was €700 pm.