Westminstenders: The Final Week

[RedToothBrush]

Our final week in the EU...

ListeningQuietly

Thanks - will look them up.

Let us see see what transpires before 1 JULY 2020. You know, the date by which UK must decide to either extend (again) or go WTO i.e No Deal.

Place your bets now.

The EU has often "stopped the clock" or used other means when time has run out .... but only when they think they it is in their interest

So I would still regard 31 December as the real end date, not July, if the UK U-turned / caved in at the end of the year

No deal due to Spain wanting Gibraltar.

Some dates are fixed in law, whereas others can be overcome if the political will is there

I'm not sure

• it feels like a 'nutter waving a knife' shouldn't be called terrorism - multiple stabbings (eg www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/20/three-dead-after-suspected-triple-stabbing-in-london) don't generate the 'fear' that the word terror invokes.

However if it does mean that these sad individuals don't feel they have to do something more spectacular to get the sobriquet - I guess it's OK?

Just that, remembering the IRA campaign on the mainland and the generalised alertness re lonely bags that is still there today for those who lived through it, the same level of generalised 'terror' just wasn't there?

I doubt if Spain wants Gibraltar enough to block a deal that the other 26 countries want

More likely is that BJ's red lines preclude anything but a bare bones Canada minus minus / Australia deal
Spain would be unlikely to bother to block that, as it is already so bad for the UK.

Traditional terrorist groups like the IRA, Basque separatists etc had a clear structure and line of command that issued orders

Both the far right and Islamic terrorists are far more disconnected,
relying on loners and misfits - often with MH issues -
being "inspired" by online propoganda to go off and create their own atrocity without specific orders

Both are still terrorists, but the internet has changed the form of terror

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-small-businesses-leave-uk-eu-market-a9310356.html

Small business leaders have accused Boris Johnson of failing to protect them from the damage Brexit will inflict
– with one third ready to quit the UK to escape it.

The prime minister’s strategy is savaged in a pre-Brexit survey revealing widespread gloom about the prospects for smaller firms outside the EU

Let us see see what transpires before 1 JULY 2020. You know, the date by which UK must decide to either extend (again) or go WTO i.e No Deal.

Place your bets now.

It seems government strategy is to say, 'We don't want No Deal, we want a very poor deal, and if we can't have that then fuck it we'll just No Deal. PS Fuck you Europe.'

So based on that, I'll bet either No Deal or a really shit deal.

Nissan drafts plan to double down on UK under hard Brexit
Scenario would see European pull-out and 20% target for UK market share

www.ft.com/content/c4f0d1e2-4442-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c

What is more likely to derail Brexit than Gibraltar:
Fishing

It's only â tiny % (of the order of 0.1% ?) of the UK and EU economies, but a very emotive one in the UK and several EU / EEA countries

This kerfuffle in Guernsey may be just the start of several disputes in British & EU waters that inflame tempers and make concessions difficult for either negotiations on the wider trade deal even more difficult

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/01/french-officials-condemn-guernsey-fishing-ban-triggered-by-brexit

In what appears to be the first international skirmish since Brexit, French politicians have condemned a temporary ban on foreign fishing boats in waters off Guernsey triggered by Britain’s departure from the European Union.

This kerfuffle in Guernsey may be just the start of several disputes in British & EU waters that inflame tempers and make concessions difficult for either side during negotiations on the wider trade deal.

More discussion on the Nissan story here

twitter.com/odtorson/status/1224084146408042496?s=20

The end of the beginning starts now. I really hope whatever happens does not negatively impact on any of us.

That is my hope.

That seems hugely unrealistic.

Renault, which is part owned by the French state, owns 43% of Nissan.

Let's say I think that this scenario is ... improbable.

On the plus side, I have enjoyed the long faces at Stormont as they reassemble and the DUP realise they have been totally fucked over by Westminster. Scotland is quietly seething too. Long-term, it honestly looks like the only way to square the circle is break-up or federalism.

I don't have the time or patience for the frothing headlines we can expect over the coming months. I place my money on whatever annoys Johnson over the least. The question is: can he weather a recession on top of years of austerity in time for the next election?

I'm perplexed by the sheer lack of concern for science, research and tech.

These sectors massively benefit everyone in society, whether they are leave or remain. Crazy situation.

Totally agree about fishing being potentially very inflammatory. It may not be a huge part of the economy but as LK described it on Brexitcast it is "totemic".

The 2013 dispute between EU and the Faroe Islands is interesting given that more than 70% of UK seafood exports go to EU. (Faroe Islands= self governing nation within Denmark but not part of EU and as such relations between them governed by a FTA and a fisheries agreement.) Faroe Islands disputed the EU fishing quota of mackerel and herring (sustainability issue) whereupon the EU simply banned Faroese vessels from landing in EU ports, so the Faroes couldn't export their fish to EU countries such as Spain and Portugal (and fishing accounts for 90% of Faroese exports). This issue was resolved as the Faroese had no choice but to capitulate and their quotas were increased in the negotiation process and the EU lifted the port sanctions but UK beware!

Claus Vistesen
@ClausVistesen
Replying to
@odtorson

The Nissan Sunderland plant has become an almost mythical bargaining chip in this affair. "Pulling out of Europe" makes zero sense. Of course they won't do that. But they might well consider that the UK market is worth enough for them to "double down" on the investment there 1/2

Also, your point on choice is important and not discussed. More trade frictions mean less choice—that BMW could well become very expensive—also, could there be a reg arbitrage here? It would make sense for the UK to undercut EU on emissions rules etc 2/2

The whole low-tax Singapore-on-Thames never made sense—see Ireland—but a Cons gvt might just try to tempt to stay a few paces behind what will now become a very "green" EU on environmental standards.

Finally, the Nissan/Renault love affair seems to have come to a screeching halt recently, which could sway the new Japanese leadership to prioritise their non-EU European investments more. The q nobody is asking is whether 20% of UK car-buyers want to drive a Nissan ;) ? 1/2.

Of course, they might have to from 2021 and onwards ;) 2/2

Hi @thecatfromjapan. Just seen your Streatham reply.

Without JIT and frictionless trade the Nissan scenario looks as though we could end up with a Soviet style car market and in a few years’ time have only a choice of a few obsolete models for most of the population. (Google “Russian car jokes” if you have nothing better to do. I’m on holiday with lots of time to waste.)

Is it today that the negotiations begin or is it more willy waving?

Liking the way “Australia style trade deal” is becoming the new Brexitannia euphemism for “no deal”.