Peter Foster@pmdfoster
NEW: #Brexit champagne corks not out of bottle yet, but can reveal taste of what is to come.
UK will run full border for EU imports - 'no deal' plans prioritising trade flows to be junked 1/thread
Biz groups to be told the 'good news' in meeting on Feb 10.
Radical departure from the October 'no deal' plans, that were designed to minimise checks to keep goods flowing - medicines, fruit and veg. etc. /2
Per source: “We are planning full checks on all EU imports - export declarations, security declarations, animal health checks and all supermarket goods to pass through Border Inspections Posts.” /3
Per source, No 10 has ordered all Whitehall departments to prepare for the full checks. XO committee, with Border Delivery Group will supervise and deliver.
This is radical shift; aim looks to be to create some leverage re EU and 'WTO rules' offering easy access to UK /4
Trade groups pretty shocked when I spoke to them today.
One trade chief, who spoke on condition of anonymity to preserve his relations with govt, said the UK “might as well put the barbed wire up” /5
A second noted @michaelgove had said that the UK wanted a trade relationship based on the EU-Canada deal - but that requires one in ten of all animal products to have physical checks. “The borders won’t work if you have to run these types of processes." /6
Haulier will be hit hardest. Freight Transport Association's @BastidonPauline @newsfromfta says if govt carries thru expect "serious consequences for supply chains" calls it "unwelcome departure from the previous pragmatic approach” /7
And Andrew Opie of @the_brc Britsh Retail Consortium wanrs of "significant impact on produce in our stores"... "less availability, shorter shelf life for fresh produce, and potentially higher costs for consumers.” /8
One one level this makes sense from a trade policy perspective.
As we saw with 'no deal' tariffs offering zero-tariff access to UK for 87% of goods, Canada dropped its 'rollover' deal. Why bother if markets open anyway? /9
Which is why the 'no deal' tariff schedule is also being reviewed.
But truth is, EU is unlikely to be moved by these threats - UK doesn't have the land, the time, the personnel to really start full checks 1.1.2021 /10
Per EU senior source: “We saw similar threats from Theresa May, but frankly we never believed them. And if the UK is actually ready for border checks - which are indeed coming - then so much the better for both sides.”/11
It is also not clear what this will mean for the Northern Ireland 'frontstop'
The GB-NI 'Irish Sea' border will have to do more.
NI will be further 'diverged' from GB (tho more advantaged harder GB plays it). /12
But that’s all for about day
We’re out. 😮
#BrexitReality #Brexit #BrexitBritain ENDS
Ready by 31st December?
Yeah OK...