Westminstenders: The Final Week

[RedToothBrush]

Our final week in the EU...

Winning a vote gives the power and the mandate to carry out an action.
It doesn't mean the action is a beneficial or moral one

It also doesn't mean that a vote can never be reversed later
or that it is undemocratic to campaign for this reversal.

Every UK GE since universal suffrage has resulted in a democratically elected govt
That does not mean that each of the manifesto commitments that every UK govt carried out were moral, just that they had a democratic mandate

Voters can change their minds, or we would always have the same party & policies in govt
e.g. voters thought austerity was essential in 2010, but now it has few fans

Some democratic elections abroad have had far worse consequences
e.g. I hate to go all Godwin, but Hitler won the 1933 election in Germany with Nazi policies and hence came to power

Still can't see why Mystery would want to celebrate today as tomorrow, far from being 'sovereign', the UK will be applying all EU legislation, regulations etc until at least 31 December 2020 but with no say, influence, participation in interpretation or control. Brexit may be 'done' but, aside from the loss of a UK say, influence, participation in interpretation or control in EU matters, nothing will have changed for the UK.

Mystery you might want to stall opening the UK sparkling wine, perry, cider, UK celebratory drink of choice until that specific form of 'sovereignty' you cherish has actually been achieved. Many a slip between cup and lip!

Because the idea of exacerbating the discomfort of enemies is titillating

That was the intent of many of the remain supporter posts. They are littered with how bad it is going to be for the angry leavers, EU will not let UK rejoin until UK learns manners, etc..........

That was the intent of many of the remain supporter posts.

What, aren't Life's Winners and new Brexitannian Leaders of the Free World not strong enough to bear a bit of negative emoting from those they bravely conquered by drawing an X on a piece of paper? Diddums.

Anyway, do let me know if I need to nip out to the shop to buy some skimmed milk for my tea. I'll throw in a bonus for you and put on a too-thin coat while I'm out.

What mystery is not saying is which of the EU institutions/agencies s/he wants Boris to negotiate relationships with - because s/he hasn't a clue

You have obviously not read all of my posts which include:

Logically UK would have performed a feasibility study before a referendum was called to identify which non EU countries need the goods and services that UK can provide and estimate the potential revenues. Did not hapen as Cameron assumed that remain would win because he knows better.

Even now the Government has not produced such a list of who they intend to target and with what other than saying they want deals with; US, EU and Japan.

Mystery you might want to stall opening the UK sparkling wine, perry, cider, UK celebratory drink of choice until that specific form of 'sovereignty' you cherish has actually been achieved. Many a slip between cup and lip

My leave vote was trade based.

Mystery so when will you celebrate UK sovereignty over trade, that being your reason for voting leave? That change you so desire does not start on 1 February, does it? There are, as yet no new FTAs, some existing EU FTAs are yet to roll over. Trade continues exactly as it does today, until at least 31 Dec 2020.

That change you so desire does not start on 1 February, does it? There are, as yet no new FTAs, some existing EU FTAs are yet to roll over

Correct as UK is not permitted to make any trade deals with non EU members until it has left the EU. So from 1 February 2020 onwards the UK can approach whoever they wish.

About 75% of EU FTA's have been rolled over so far.

I have a really unfortunate mental picture of somebody mostly staring at a clock on the wall, carrying out some (um) self-appreciation, with added vigour whenever we type anything that addresses them 🤢

The 75% rolling over is just for the transition phase, i.e. until 31 December
What happens after this has mostly yet to be negotiated

The UK has been unable to sign agreements, but has been gfrantically trying to negotiate to hav them ready to sign after Brexit

A few deals are for after transition, but the UK has not managed to retain all eu advantages
e.g. Switzerland:

What have the UK and Switzerland agreed on their trade relationship post-Brexit?

(references Swiss government information sheet, prepared mainly for Swiss companies)

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-and-swiss-trade-post-brexit/

Essentially, they are partly “rolling over” to the UK the present Swiss-EU trade relationship.

The roll-over is only “full”

• and ^only for goods, since services are not included at all - ^ during the transition in the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement when the EU asks the other free-trade-agreement countries to treat the UK as if it were an EU member.

Otherwise, a number of significant parts of the Swiss-EU agreements are “disapplied”.

The House of Lords EU committee has examined the Swiss "rollover":

https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/media-centre/house-of-lords-media-notices/2019/march-2019/lords-eu-committee-report-on-uk-switzerland-trade-agreement/

"The Committee notes that
the Trade Agreement differs significantly from the precursor agreement which the UK is party to as an EU Member State.

These differences include:

Most trade in services,which make up 52% of all UK-Swiss trade, is not covered by the deal.
The Committee calls on the Government to explain its plans for future UK-Swiss trade in services.

The deal could place new limits on the export of agricultural products from the UK to Switzerland,
for instance raising the possibility that the UK will not be able to export products marketed as organic to Switzerland after Brexit.

Under the deal Switzerland will no longer recognise the Authorised Economic Operator status of businesses accredited as AEOs in the UK,
which would mean they lose access to benefits such as fewer controls at the Swiss border."

Checking in to say that the gridlock which will start in Hampshire this evening will make the festivities a bit more subdued
BUT

If you hear racism, call it out
If you hear Xenophobia call it out
If we sit in silence we make it acceptable.

Most people are not racists.
If you speak up, others will stand shoulder to shoulder with you.

Trade deals usually take 5-15 years to negotiate, unless one country just accepts everything the other wants

No country in modern times has ever torn up all its existing trade deals
On the contrary, countries around the world are becoming more integrated in regional trade blocs

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51325915

The sale of British Steel to Chinese firm Jingye could be scuppered by French intervention.

Jingye agreed in November to buy the collapsed business for £50m and save about 4,000 jobs.

However, the approval of the French government is required because British Steel has a plant in France that is considered a strategic national asset.

Now French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has threatened to veto the deal, as first reported by Sky News.

(contd)

I imagine there is no political will in France to risk a state asset for a 3rd country.

JIT manufacturers will probably be the most concerned about the terms of a post-Brexit deal.

They need to retain frictionless access to the Single Market, or their costs will increase and their exports will likely fall

Foreign-owned firms are especially likely to pull out, or just quietly choose to make their new investment elsewhere

What happens to the UK automotive industry over the next few years will be one of the crucial sectors for jobs and exports:

So what is there to celebrate today Mystery? There are no new trade agreements today, or tomorrow, or scheduled. As you noted, the UK has so far not published work on their preparations for our future trade relationships. So what is there to actually celebrate?

So what is there to actually celebrate?

Remainers' distress, presumably.

Unless BJ does a massive U-turn and drops his red lines, the post-Brexit deal will be a Canada-Minus one....

which would be disastrous for the UK manufacturing and farming sectors:

Now I have to get ready for the retirement bash with my team

• feels odd, but I'm actually glad I'll be in a lovely restaurant with friends - celebrating something totally different to take my mind off what we are losing

At the gym this morning, several folk were asking if I'd be OK, expressing sympathy

Anyway, "see" you all later tonight

The UK is now going to spend the next 10 years slowly finding it needs to opt back into everything it had in order to placate all the losers from Brexit. Which suggests at least one election in between.

So now the next challenge for Boris is how best to fiddle the optics so that the UK is not up shit street when the next election falls. On top of everything else.

So what is there to celebrate today Mystery?

Democracy has been preserved in that a majority vote was honoured

The lack of uncertainty that has plagued the UK since 2016 has ended

Sterling has stabilized and appreciated slightly against the Euro since the Election. Boris winning by a big majority made Brexit a certainty and hence the uncertainty is removed.

As of tomorrow the UK can approach whoever it wishes for trade talks.

You have obviously not read all of my posts which include
Your response, mystery, is talking about trade - negotiation of trade deals appears to be what Boris/Brexiteers have focused on.

I'm asking about which agencies/programmes you (as a brexiteer) want our leaders to negotiate some kind of relationship with because brexit has taken us out of them EASA? Euratom? Europol? ECHA? Erasmus etc etc.

The lack of uncertainty that has plagued the UK since 2016 has ended

No it really hasn't, we have entered a new phase of uncertainty. Once we know what Brexit is and what it means, only then will uncertainty end Mystery

The lack of uncertainty that has plagued the UK since 2016 has ended

Not even vaguely true - the election/WA agreement has simply replaced the possibility of an immediate no deal with a border down the Irish Sea and an end of year cliff edge.

For any company to plan and invest they need to know the nature of the relationship in 2021 - that is just as uncertain as it was in 2019.

But your Brexit celebration, you stated, was trade related.

The lack of uncertainty remains - see previous comments about transition, 31 Dec 2020 or later, FTAs or lack thereof.

And what of those possible trade negotiations - what is actually certain today?

I appreciate that this is a fruitless exchange and will not result in consistency on the reason for their celebration from Mystery nor identify an actual, certain, positive 'UK Sovereign trade change' today, or even on 1 February 2020. So, enjoy your celebration Mystery, I won't be joining you.

Surely in the case above either less than or fewer would be OK? 12 hours could be either a single interval of time, or 12 separate hours