Predictions for how long before we rejoin the EU?

[SoloD]

I reckon between 10-15 years, if I narrow that down I reckon 2033

5 years for the full economic impact to be felt, 5 years to get a rejoin majority government, year to do an referendum, 2 years to negotiate to join.

Oblomov20 l think people are trying to be realistic in their predictions , given how long its taken to leave and Brexit is nowhere near finished yet. Rejoining would probably take a similar amount of time. Given that the current government are unlikely to offer another referendum on the subject ever and we are stuck with them for another 4 or 4 and half years, you have to take that into account when looking at timescales for regaining our EU membership.

I think it will be another 25 years before we rejoin. I think it will take a few years of transition related faffing while our incompetent 'leaders' try and sort out the logistics. Then 20 years with things getting bad and then increasingly bad, and those responsible stepping away without improving things. Then in 25 years, once they have all stepped away and no more ego/ skin in the game, someone will suggest this great new idea of being in the EU...

I am surprised at the posts. I thought more would be saying let's rejoin ASAP. And immediately start to try and facilitate that. Surely that the remainders view

Some of us remainers are of the view that we have not left yet

And when we do leave - in 9 days - it is not really leaving the EU just leaving the decision making process whilst still being bound by the rules - FOR 11 MONTHS.

lose, lose - but we get told we are wrong, we are just leaving, taking back control so we duck back below that parapet

@Oblomov20 a lot of remainers believe that now isn't the time for rejoin rhetoric.

It's happening in a few days.

Let the leavers have their 'victory' and then they'll see their lives just aren't going to improve away from their ridiculous fantasy of the oppressive EU.

Trade will become much more problematic. Who votes for that?

Rejoin will start in a few years. When remainers stop laughing long enough to catch their breath.

I can't believe people are burying their heads in the sand. Not leaving? Of course we are. In a few days. How can this be anything other than catastrophic?

Trying to negotiate a new, less advantageous deal? To rejoin? No, let's not bother starting now, let's leave it for a bit?

Yeah. That sounds like a good plan! Not!

Very curious to know how so many Leavers know that the "EU will implode", I am guessing they are basing this on evidence?

It's not like they are morons who believe everything they are told by people who clearly have an agenda is it?

Currently economic growth in the EU is greater than that of the UK, FDI is up (massively down in the UK) and they have new trade deals in the offing (whereas we are losing most of ours).

The more countries want to join the EU, whereas of course in the UK, many if not a majority in Scotland and possibility Northern Ireland want to leave the UK.

I know which I would put my money on breaking up first...

Very curious to know how so many Leavers know that the "EU will implode", I am guessing they are basing this on evidence?

I am equally curious to know how the remainers know that UK will apply to rejoin the EU. I am guessing they are basing this on evidence as opposed to wishful thinking?

Lol There is no evidence , how can I prove it !

My prediction is simply ... Once French & German voters realise it will be them paying the 10-13 billion deficit due to the U.K. departure , I don’t think it will be longer before they say enough is enough

I genuinely don’t hate the EU I have a tiny place in France which is precious to me , I purchased 20 years ago with money left by my mum .. but I also don’t suffer fools , the EU is for big business ie Banks etc where there regulated under one umbrella .

Im not a leaver.

We are leaving on stupid terms and we will all be worse off but there you go. I cant control the country - im a minority group with zero power. There is basically no opposition in parliament. We will probably see a break up of the UK first. I presume someone at the top is making money out of it. Being english i will then enter 59 years of Tory rule under King William, The Bald.

But i still think the EU wont exist in its current form by the time there is any political will to rejoin from the bit of the uk i live in; that the EU might miss one of its stronger economies and us leaving might impact on them too; and that global issue will impact on the EU over such a long time frame.

@MysteryTripAgain

I left some evidence in my post. UK economy is getting worse, every week another company goes under, bank of England are considering lowering interest rate the situation is so bad. Contrast that to the Eurozone who are picking up all the investment which would have gone to the UK.

@Oblomov20 who has said we aren't leaving?

Unlikely we would rejoin the EU minus our rebates and opt-outs, which the EU would be highly unlikely to entertain.

EEA is a real prospect, but in the medium-term we are likely to follow a Swiss path of bilateral alignment on a sectoral basis.

@Fatladyissinging

I hate to be the one to inform you that you have been conned, but the UK won't leave a £10 -£13bn deficit. I guess this is based on the lies told by the leave campaign. The UK gets a rebate and the EU spends much of the money it receives from the UK actually in the UK (money the UK government has not promised to replace).

A good example is the EASA, the air safety regulator. Because we no longer share the cost between 28 countries we will pay far more to cover the cost of that single agency. Will it be as good? Well Rolls Royce now send all their UK built Engines to be certified in Germany, taking British jobs to the EU.

No doubt you won't be affected, but others have lost jobs because of Brexit so I would be do a bit more research in future.

@Mockers2020Vision I agree, that is probably more likley. Either way if we want to trade with the EU we will have to follow EU rules. It is that simple.

Just now we have no say in those rules. Brexiteers must feel so clever.

The UK is/was always a net contributor to the EU budget. You can argue the toss about the indirect benefits of developing the east European economies as a future market for UK exports, etc.

What does not work is simple subtraction arithmatic when calculating the budgetary effects of Brexit on the EU and UK. You have to take into account the increase in unit costs from the loss of economies of scale. It's a negative sum game in which everybody loses.

The EU won't last. It's an economic basketcase.

I don’t honestly know but I’m exhausted by it all. I feel so incredibly sad at what has happened to my country and what this means for my DC.

I will be spending next Friday with friends, trying to avoid the smug and unpleasant braying of the Leave campaign. What happens after that I couldn’t predict. I’m clearly not very good at predictions as if you’d asked me 5 years ago, I couldn’t have predicted the nasty small minded little island we have become. I’m on the verge of giving up.

@Aquilla

Worrying then that they are doing so much better than us economically....

Worrying also we are so dependent on them.

Taken from
Gov.uk

The UK contribution to the EU budget
How much does the UK contribute to the EU budget as a member? And what about payments from the EU?

The financial relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU) continues to be a talking point.

In 2018 the government spent £864.9 billion on all aspects of public spending, but how much does the UK pay to the EU as a current member?

What about the adjustment (officially known as the ‘Fontainbleau abatement’, colloquially known as the UK rebate) deducted from the overall theoretical liability, and the net impact of money the UK receives from the EU, for example, through the Agricultural Guarantee Fund?

Following our previous explainer on this topic, we take another look using latest numbers on the UK’s official transactions with European Union (EU) institutions using data consistent with Table 9.9 of Pink Book 2019 (available in Table 1), as well as data from the European Commission. The rest of the Pink Book will be published as scheduled on 31 October 2019.

In 2018 the UK’s gross contribution to the EU amounted to £20.0 billion; however, this amount of money was never actually transferred to the EU. It is best thought of as a theoretical liability.

This is because before the UK government transfers any money to the EU, the adjustment (or abatement) is applied.

In 2018 the UK abatement was £4.5 billion. This means £15.5 billion was transferred from the UK government to the EU in official payments.

But this only accounts for the money that the UK pays to the EU – some of this £15.5 billion is credited back to the UK public sector, of which a proportion is then paid to the private sector.

The EU pays money to the UK public sector to administer what are known as “shared management” programmes. Under these, the EU makes payments to the UK authorities, which are then distributed in accordance with EU rules, for example, to farmers.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that £4.5 billion came back to the UK public sector in credits in 2018. This included £2.2 billion that came through the Agricultural Guarantee Fund and £0.7 billion that came back through the European Regional Development Fund.

Given these figures, the ONS reports that the UK government's net contribution to the EU – that is, the difference between the money it paid to the EU and the money it received – was £11.0 billion in 2018 compared with the £20.0 billion theoretical liability.

But is there anything else we might consider?

Some have argued that there are other payments that should be considered. The private sector is able to access funding directly from the EU, but these are not considered “official transactions”. The net figure (usually published as part of the Pink Book, available in Table 1) only considers payments the UK government receives from the EU, not payments that the EU makes directly to the UK private sector such as grants to universities.

While the Pink Book table is not designed to capture those payments, the European Commission (EC) provides net figures including payments to the UK public and private sector.

Data from the European Commission (EC) does account for some credits to the private sector. Let's now take a look at how it calculates the UK's contribution using its own figures.

European Commission figures, five-year average, 2014 to 2018, £billion

Averages have been calculated using unrounded values.
Using the latest available figures published by the EC, a wider estimate of flows between the UK and the EU can be calculated. This calculation considers the abatement, the money the EU sends to the UK government, and the money the EU sends directly to the UK private sector.

This is arguably a more complete picture of the money that flows between the UK and the EU and in 2018 the net flow was £8.6 billion.

However, in the last few years the EC figures have been volatile and so a five-year average has been taken to better represent a “typical” contribution.

The UK’s annual five-year average (2014 to 2018) net contribution on this wider basis was £7.8 billion; lower than the £9.8 billion ONS estimate of the annual five-year average

www.bbc.com/news/business-51090008

The UK's economy grew by just 0.1% in the three months to November, according to the Office for National Statistics.

Far less than the EU as a whole

Venzuela is a basket case.
Zimbabwe is a basket case.
Syria doesn't have a basket.

The EU has a way to go before it reaches that category.

@Aquilla interesting statement. Based on what? Anything?

I think by time I retire we'll be spending euros.

I'm early 40s - so expect it will be late 60s early 70s before retirement so 25 -30 years.

Unless we get into some looser agreement before that in desperation or if something unforseeable happens that means post Brexit country prospers - some technical break through our government gets control of and limits access to or some mineral deposit only we have that suddenly becomes vital.

I live in Italy and my (Italian) neighbour is a keen Brexiteer! After the referendum he told me that the British had made the right decision and Italy would be next - he couldn't wait. Now he says Italy will definitely stay and the British will be back in within twenty years....

My dad's a leaver and told me the other day that he thinks we'll be back in the EU in a few years.