Westministenders: Canada Plus and the Transition Phase

[RedToothBrush]

As we approach the 31st January, we slowly tick towards exit and transition.

Things are not yet signed off though the No Deal planning has quietly been stood down with no press release and the government have said they won't talk about trade deals post 31st Jan because the public are bored of them and don't understand.

The new EU president has said that the UK doesn't have time to make a full deal with the EU before 31st December with a deadline which isn't flexible.

We still have no idea what the government plans are. We still have many EU citizens feeling very vulnerable.

Perhaps we should start talking about this rather than Royals for a couple of weeks...

I've just seen that the guy who set up the gofundme page is promising to share any extra money raised with families individuals and communities 'adversely impacted by Brexit' - so even the guy trying to get Big Ben to ring out recognises that Brexit is going to damage the country - insanity!

but it is nice of him to offer help to those damaged by Brexit, even if it would be a drop in a bucket
(not being sarky)

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/15/eu-citizens-in-uk-risk-discrimination-in-jobs-and-housing

The EU have expressed concern at the uselessness of the settled status system.
The next 12 months are going to be full of this kind of news, however hard BJ tries to ensure otherwise.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/boris-johnson-uk-us-trade-deal-under-threat-unless-iran-stance-changes-says-trump-ally

Boris Johnson risks jeopardising a free-trade deal with the US unless he pulls the UK out of the Iran nuclear deal
a leading Republican voice on Iran has said.

The warning by Richard Goldberg, until last week a member of the White House national security council (NSC), highlights the dilemmas UK foreign and defence policymakers will face
as Britain tries to steer its own course between Washington and Brussels after Brexit.

< except Brussels isn't making the EU deal dependent on Britain's foreign policy on Iran. Or on Israel, China, or anywhere else. Only the US is doing that >

the playing field being apparently being insisted upon is not "level".

In whose opinion and by what definition?

You might want to go and look at how Switzerland's relationship with the EU works.

Its never going to be a "level playing field" this is your new reality Leave voters, bigger economies have more leverage in negotiation.

EU preparatory discussion doc: Level Playing field

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/seminar-20200114-lpf_en.pdf

Previous UK govts chose to "gold plate" some standards.
The EU position is that standards should not be lowered by either side,
i.e. the Uk cannot remove gold-plating to reduce to the EU minimum level.

Pages 17-18:
"Non-lowering of higher domestic labour and environmental standards in order to encourage trade and investment".

imo, this is not an EU red line, it's just an EU 🐿 squirrel:

something to cause much frothing in the Tory media, ^
but then give BJ something he can declare a "win" after, to help him politically.

He'll need such help, because to get a deal which protects UK trade, he'll have to concede a lot.

.

However, as we see from the USA and the EU preliminary demands, however serious / non-serious:

the UK is in a far weaker negotiating position than it has been for 45 years

Expect India, China, South America- and maybe even Canada & Australia too - to hold the UK's feet to the fire

In trade negotiations, when only one side is desperate, no prisoners are taken
The strong lay down terms, the weak roll over

At work today I was looking at Public Sector borrowing rates
they have dropped 0.2 % (20 basis points in finance speak)
which is a HUGE amount
and this in on 30 year fixed rate loans

or in English
the UK economy is going nowhere pretty in the next 20 years

I look forward to Jonson's deal
I know what the oven ready one looks like
I can cope with it

but it does not fit with Bongs at 11

Its never going to be a "level playing field" this is your new reality Leave voters, bigger economies have more leverage in negotiation.

That is covered by 👉 "It's the EU's fault because BullyingPunishment" - see how easy it is to be a Leaver?

BigChocFrenzy
Extraordinary that clavinova insists Brexit was not Musk's main reason for not putting the Tesla in Britain....when he himself says it is !

Apparently he said that to Auto Express Magazine in private...

Aside from the points I have already made - Auto Express (your link) didn't even read their own links properly;

“We’ll have our first European factory in continental Europe, perhaps the Netherlands, but it makes sense to have one in the UK once we’re producing more than 500,000 units. But the factory needs to be running at full capacity [to be viable].”

The UK was not going to be considered for Tesla's first factory in any case - perhaps the second or third factory.

I notice that UK in a Changing Europe omit this part of the quote;

"We’ll have our first European factory in continental Europe, perhaps the Netherlands" - crafty.

They only quote;
"it makes sense to have one in the UK once we’re producing more than 500,000 units"

But Elon Musk hasn't reached 340,000 units according to this article, Oct 2019;

qz.com/1720751/wall-street-is-only-listening-to-elon-musks-internal-goals/

They'll never produce in the UK now though.

Ever.

He still said that brexit made it too risky too.

I note that you have denied any business issue has been about brexit so far.

Good job UK is top of the charts for tech start ups then.

www.cityam.com/british-tech-startups-top-global-growth-for-venture-capital-investment/

Not convinced TESLA is a long term success story - just a hunch.

Yep, I said howabout would come along to rubbish Tesla, since it isn't coming to the UK
Anyone pulling out or not coming is always trashed in importance

Though I suspect all the Brexiters would have been trumpeting it as a tremendous win for the UK, if it had happened

Musk in November 2019 said Brexit was the main reason for Britain not being considered for Tesla

That's a lot more recent than the June 2014 article saying Britain would only be the choice for the 2nd factory
Plans and priorities have probably changed in those 4.5 years

German commentators were delighted at the Tesla news - unlike howabout, they think it important - and said Brexit had removed Britain as a serious contender.

Germany will happily take all the big new tech opportunities that Brexit gifts them

My link was from CNBC, for whom Musk is the important story,
but they had a little dig over Brexit, as many foreign news organisations do

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/elon-musk-brexit-to-blame-for-building-tesla-gigafactory-in-germany.html

Oops, typo

Plans and priorities have probably changed in those 4.5 5.5 years

Clavinova Auto Express went with the current statement, not with old plans from several years ago

A few of the leading Brexiters are at least honest that they think Brexit will kill off UK manufacturing.

However, what they intend to replace it with - like the start-ups howabout linked - are unlikely to be with all the people losing the "old" jobs

Probably as with Thatcher's de-industrialisation, when the areas of the country that lost jobs declined sharply
while the new jobs were for bright new young people in London,
not those who used to work on the production line.

Prof Patrick Minford (Economists for Brexit) has repeatedly stated that Brexit would likely “eliminate manufacturing” over time,
but that this would be fine
e.g. in

https://www.thesun.co.uk/archives/politics/1086319/brexit-will-boost-our-economy-and-cut-the-cost-of-bmws-and-even-brie/

"Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech.

But this shouldn’t scare us.
Britain is good at putting on a suit and selling to other nations."

Obviously Minford doesn't consider geographic and occupational immobility of labour an issue.

"Minford doesn't consider geographic and occupational immobility of labour an issue"

Yep, like anyone who blithely ignores or minimises losing mass manufacturing jobs
New startups are great for the young, mobile, degree-owning mc living in the SE or moving there
especially those who can afford to work unpaid and / or buy in early on

Brexit looks like rapidly speeding up the social changes, that have already caused such resentment,
increasing the economic divide, worsening the economic and geographical divide

Bigchoc as Tam Dayell often observed very few miners want to see their DC going down the pit.

Loads of homeworkers relocating to the Highlands and Islands of Scotland. Hi-tech remote working is de rigour amongst my 50 something generation - why I have to put up with DH at home 24/7 - the vast majority of the school run is homeworkers taking a 10 minute break. My 20 something nephew is similarly employed at the other end of the country.

Doesn't really make sense for the UK to seek to swoop in and poach the German car manufacturing crown. Much better for them to sort out their diesel down scaling and do the upscaling R&D for electric. The newspaper review last night was on DGR's salient point last night. Electric cars are still polluting and still clog up the roads. Autonomous shared transport is a much better long term solution than ever increasing private ownership and streets littered with charging points.

as Tam Dayell often observed very few miners want to see their DC going down the pit.

Many years ago during the miners strike, when Question Time was worth watching (so that dates it) I caught an episode with someone trying to justify the strike as "keeping jobs for the miners children". To which an American lady (more girl, as I recall) in the audience asked why they had such low aspirations and why didn't they want their children to be doctors, scientists and businessmen ? It was an exchange borne of different cultures and very revealing.

www.dailymotion.com/video/x32czn2

Loads of homeworkers relocating to the Highlands and Islands of Scotland.

Which meant that Corbyn's idea of nationwide broadband rollout made sense. Providing it free didn't.

Autonomous shared transport

Or just old fashioned buses, trams and trains, with one driver for lots of people.

The newspaper review last night was on DGR's salient point last night. Electric cars are still polluting and still clog up the roads.

Not quite sure which point that would be ? I can be a bit like a machine gun at times.

Everything pollutes, so it wouldn't have been that ...

With electric cars, part of the issue is that without a decent range and charging technology (neither of which is remotely close at the moment) then electric cars are simply not a like-for-like replacement for existing ICE cars. And until they are, no amount of jiggery pokery is going to get the masses to buy into them in any great number.

However, whereas range and charging time are a massive detractor for private users, it's not really a problem if you adjust your thinking to a public network of electric cars nipping around towns and cities. No problem to deliver 50 1 mile journeys and then slink off to a charging rank for as long as it takes.

If you combine that approach with a forward looking city planning strategy, you'd be able to create roads dedicated to autonomous cars which would relieve a lot of the "what ifs" people seem to struggle with at the moment.

However, I remain deeply unoptimistic.