The Brexit Arms: Are We Nearly There Yet? 🇬🇧🚗↩️🇪🇺

[SingingLily]

No, not yet, but soon. Just 24 more sleeps until we legally leave the EU at 11pm on 31 January and finally enter the transition period after what seems like centuries of argument, dither and delay. We do so with hope, optimism and a determination to be a good friend and neighbour to the EU, but for now, no one said it better than Winston Churchill.

“This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning.”

The Pub Rule is the same as it always was: all welcome but only if you leave goadery outside. The first drink is on the house.

IDK Walking. Boris versus Lady Nugee could be quite entertaining.

I reckon Lisa Nandy could cause him problems.

Morning, all,

The high winds continue and it's chilly out there but a warm welcome awaits as ever in the Arms.

I see that Angela Rayner, Ian Murray, Rosena Allin-Khan, Richard Burgon and Dawn Butler are all through to the next stage of the deputy leadership election while Lisa Nandy's strategy, according to the HuffPost, is to work on being everyone's favourite second choice candidate. AV, you see. Well, it worked for Ed Miliband.

My own feeling is that in one sense, it doesn't really matter who the next leader is. Most of their time and attention will be taken up anyway in trying to resolve and settle internal party politics and build a clear message. The leader-after-next is the one who will have the task of selling the message to the country. The choice of leader now will only determine how long before the Labour Party is ready to be seen as a serious contender - five years, ten, fifteen or never.

Labour voters, for the sake of us all, please choose wisely.

Breakfast this morning is waffles with berries, maple syrup, strawberry or rhubarb jam - just the thing to cheer up a cold dark morning. Please help yourselves.

Kettle's on ☕️☕️☕️

Morning.

I think the choice of Deputy is more significant. Ian Murray is talking sense about owning Unionism - Scottish Labour have been thinking in terms of a "Federal UK" structure since Kezia. However their frustration is that UK Labour are too busy wheeling and dealing with the SNP Westminster contingent to engage - Scotland can't federate unilaterally (not that it can manage unilateral Indy either).

Otoh Angela Rayner looks to be more aligned to a strategy of putting the 2 halfs of the English Labour vote back together.

The other 3 hold the deluded belief they can win an election with just the Metropolitan Lefties.

If the new Leader is smart they could leave all the coalition building to Ian or Angela and float above it doing the Grand Vision thing - Cool Britannia mark 2. Emily and Sir Keir have too much existing baggage for this approach but possible for RLB, Lisa or Jess.

Anyone see Boris on BBC Breakfast?
BBC reporting he is backing Trump to come up with a replacement for the Iran Nuclear Deal but staying with the current Deal until he does.
Significant pivot continuing the strategy of the UK bridge between the US and Europe.

per BBC website:
"Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been interviewed by BBC Breakfast.

He was asked how certain he was that the UK and EU will reach a comprehensive Brexit trade deal by the end of the year.

He says: "I think it's very likely, I'm not going to give you a percentage, I think we will do very well indeed. But the key thing is that we are coming out of the EU on 31 January."

It will be "enormously likely, epically likely," he adds.

"Obviously you have to budget for a complete failure of common sense, that goes without saying, but I'm very confident," he says. "This is not about building a new deal, this is about building a new partnership, and from 31 January what we're going to do is start working with our friends and partners around the world, not just the EU.""

Made me chuckle

Morning, Howabout. Boris's customary optimism might be underpinned by the knowledge that although Germany managed to avert technical recession by turning in a feeble performance of 0.1% last quarter, Bloomberg suggests that Christine Lagarde has Germany's budget surplus in her sights:

“In the year the European Central Bank doubled down on calls for more fiscal stimulus, the euro area’s biggest economy managed the feat of a record budget surplus instead.

Germany’s federal government amassed an excess of 13.5 billion euros ($15 billion) last year -- helped by low interest rates and a benign outcome to Brexit talks.

For ECB President Christine Lagarde, the surplus underscores a key imbalance of the currency area she leads, where longstanding fiscal rectitude in its largest constituent contrasts with more persistent deficits in its next three-largest economies. With much of her monetary ammunition already spent, Germany’s stash of money may be the region’s best hope to potentially cushion the blow in a future crisis.”

Angela presumably needs to ensure that the "benign outcome to Brexit talks" is carried forward to the next phase, negotiation of the UK/EU trade deal.

Now that the political reality is settled, economic reality takes over.

I think the choice of Deputy is more significant. Ian Murray is talking sense about owning Unionism - Scottish Labour have been thinking in terms of a "Federal UK" structure since Kezia. However their frustration is that UK Labour are too busy wheeling and dealing with the SNP Westminster contingent to engage - Scotland can't federate unilaterally (not that it can manage unilateral Indy either).

Agree, Howabout. The Deputy would be responsible for keeping the ship steady behind the scenes and my preference - not that I have a say - would be to prioritise the Union. I'm not at all convinced that even despite Angela Rayner's best efforts, the Labour Party can reconcile its two halves. Virtually every post-election analysis shows that it really only appeals to young ABC1 voters in metropolitan areas, the antithetical of its traditional working class base in the North and Midlands.

Hence the race to prove Northern/Midland or working class credentials or both.

Now I know why DD1 was warning about super gonorrhea. DD2's tonsils got better all by themselves so we've dodged that one.

No idea why Boris gets accused of laziness. Stormont yesterday, US and EU relations this morning and Dear Nicola ... before lunchtime. Took me all weekend to cope with setting up DD3's new school dinner payment account.

I'm glad to hear DD2 is on the mend. I guess in trying to be helpful, DD1 was covering all the bases and there are so many illness and ailments with common symptoms, it's easy to make the leap. It's the same with contra-indications on prescribed drugs. When you read the warnings about possible side effects, they're more scary than whatever actually ails you

I think Boris is doing what he did as Mayor, and also what he is happiest doing: painting the big picture, setting the direction, networking on behalf of the UK, leaving process and delivery to his team. Exactly as a Chair would. Far better, in my view, than TM's micro-management style. I've worked for both types of senior leader and we got much further much faster under the first type.

Are we going to pass a cap around for the 'Big Ben Bonging in Brexit' fund?? I think Nick Ferarri is planning to host a crowdfunder for it.
I'll pop a few quid in and just have a tap water today.

Boswell the youtube link above is to the 17 F* Offs song which they are hoping to get to number 1 by 31 Jan. Only 79p a download and if they were to donate the proceeds to the Big Ben Bong Fund it would surely be a done deal.

Otoh I would rather not interfere and make sure they get on with restoring the whole thing properly. In the meantime you can download your very own Big Ben Bong so we could all synchronise our ring tones.

www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/building/palace/big-ben/anniversary-year/downloads/

I have no strong feelings about the Big Ben thing either. In fact, I rather think it is more of a talking point among those who voted Remain.

The Spectator is running an article titled "How to Run No. 10: An Insider's Guide" and that did make me chuckle.

The author is one Gavin Barwell, the chap who wrote a book called How to Win a Marginal Seat...just before losing his own marginal seat.

Leo V's statement calling the Irish GE on Feb 8.

"We have a deal on Brexit and, after the positive vote in the House of Commons last Thursday, it is now certain that the UK will leave the EU on the 31st of January in an orderly fashion.

There will be no hard border, citizens' rights will protected and the Common Travel Area will remain in place. The Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive have reconvened.

However, Brexit is not done yet. In fact, it’s only half-time.

The next step is to negotiate a free trade agreement between the EU, including Ireland, and the United Kingdom that protects our jobs, our businesses, our rural communities and our economy. The capacity to do everything else that needs to be done - health, housing, climate action, tax reform - depends on achieving this outcome. And, it has to be done by the end of the year."

www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0114/1107371-leo-varadkar-statement/

Afternoon everyone. I am more than happy to "bung a Bob for Brexit bongs" or whatever it is?
Is there a real crowd funding site?
That song is brilliant. Do I just pay 79p to download it from iTunes?

Queens debate continues, listening to Layla Moran talk crap about our education system. Apparently emotional well being should be taught at the same level as Maths and & English. Guess teachers have plenty of spare time.

Going to watch this mornings Boris interview next.
Put me down for the Big Ben Bong fund.

A Pint of Best and a Rare Steak with the usual trimmings please.

Many thanks to Lily for her breakfast offrerings and all other Hostess with the Mostest she does.

I've nothing really to add - throws log on fire - but it all seems to be rolling on fine. I heard early today that the EU proposes swapping UK Fishing for EU Financial Rights.

No one said these negotiations were going to be easy...but at least the 'proposals' are open and I 'bid' that I noticed that UK Fishing is regarded as an important issue to the EU....next 'bid'....

That steak was 'cracking' Lily, my thanks to the Chef.

Evening folks, just wanted to have a quick catch-up! I'm back working full-time and am delighted to report that the company who've contracted me are finally making lots of business decisions and investments, now that they're sure Brexit is happening!

Great to read all your latest contributions and those breakfast photos are mouthwatering!

Just watched the 30 min Boris interview. He seemed friendly (with a twinkle in his eyes) and statesman like at the same time. Nothing new in politics terms but he has a million times more charisma than Corbyn ever did... I know Starmer is slick but I do wonder if he is as charming and friendly.

For the SW, fishing rights are important but are insignificant in GDP terms compared to the weight and influence carried by financial services in London/SE. Fishermen and their industry fear (with reason IMVHO) that their interests will be dismissed as of less economic importance. However, there are few/no replacement financial services jobs in the SW for ex-fisherman. But the EU is determined to discuss fishing rights before financial services.

But the EU is determined to discuss fishing rights before financial services
Luckily Boris wont take any BS from the EU.

Fishing is small beer compared to the financial services market but it's about the symbolism of taking back our fishing rights that is the sticking point, particularly in hard-won Red Wall areas like Grimsby. That symbolism is also largely why the sight of millionaire Bob Geldof taunting ex-fishermen who had lost their livelihoods attracted such criticism.

I think one of the reasons why some ministers are urging sector-by-sector negotiations with the US and the EU simultaneously is to make it more difficult for the EU to behave much as it did with Theresa May. If the German car industry is facing serious competition with the US car industry, for example, the EU might be persuaded to moderate its demand to trade off fishing rights for financial services. That will be up to the direction given to them and the skill of the negotiators.

Walking is right, though. Boris is not Theresa May. The dynamics are different. In any case, the political realities are different now and the EU's economic difficulties are not going away.

That's great news about the full-time job, Limer, as well as about the fact that your organisation is finally able to move ahead with decisions and investment. The uncertainty, the - dare I say it - dither and delay, has had the effect of deadening business initiative.

Only 17 days and 57 minutes to go!

Prosecco please - it's my birthday (or was yesterday).

The EU needs our financial services. Rumours have it that Deutsche bank are very wobbly and will need bailing by the Germans - and where else are they going to leverage that sort of money but in the City (that's ours, not Frankfurt). If they cut off their own access to the markets they are sunk. The US won't deal with them, and nowhere else has the capacity that London has. I had heard on another blog that EU member states and their businesses can't replace the loans/derivatives etc that London holds anywhere else.

Morning, all,

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill reaches Day 2 of the committee stage in the HoL as peers continue line-by-line scrutiny. They have marshalled 68 amendments, some by way of clarification and tidying-up but others that have been already rejected by the HoC: child refugees, Erasmus, close alignment with the single market on environmental issues and consumer protections, giving Parliament the say over the direction of further negotiations on the future relationship.

The HoL also wants to remove Clause 33 which prevents any minister of the Crown from seeking any further extension beyond 31 December 2020.

My guess is that the government will accept most of the amendments (mainly the ones presented as tidying-up clauses but not all as some would give Nicola Sturgeon more time to play the bagpipes airtime) but that would still leave roughly 20 for the HoC to debate and vote on. We’ll see.

Morning, Scary, and belated Happy Birthday to you! 🥂🍰

Yes, I picked that up about Deutsche Bank too. Several of my extended family work in the City in senior roles and they are relatively sanguine about Brexit because only London can handle the sheer volume of euro and bond transactions that the still-extremely-wobbly Eurozone relies on. I had assumed that most if not all in financial services had voted Remain but they tell me it was just as divided in banking/private wealth management circles and on the trading floors as the rest of the country.

Anyway, today's breakfast is intended to fortify against the cold and dark so please help yourselves.

Kettle's on ☕️☕️☕️