The Brexit Arms: Are We Nearly There Yet? 🇬🇧🚗↩️🇪🇺

[SingingLily]

No, not yet, but soon. Just 24 more sleeps until we legally leave the EU at 11pm on 31 January and finally enter the transition period after what seems like centuries of argument, dither and delay. We do so with hope, optimism and a determination to be a good friend and neighbour to the EU, but for now, no one said it better than Winston Churchill.

“This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning.”

The Pub Rule is the same as it always was: all welcome but only if you leave goadery outside. The first drink is on the house.

“epic the thing with the post I quoted is it genuinely sounded like that poster thought 31st Jan was the end of Brexit”

I disagree, it didn’t signal that to me, merely that the poster felt that the thread would not have as much purpose after that point. We are called the Brexit Arms after all, and despite the fact that extricating ourselves from the EU in a technical sense will not be ‘done’ on the 31st (and it does annoy me that people keep pointing that out as if we are children- not aimed at you specifically but just in general.) and will continue for some time in trade deals and economic adjustments, In the most formal sense of the word it will be over, the vote that leavers made will be officially recognised if that makes sense? Not that it will be ‘done’ in and of itself.

God I can’t stand Mark Francois but he grew up on the same estate I did and I remember him as a greasy horrible little oik who wasn’t liked.

He also pursued my sister relentlessly for a while...ewww....he could have been my brother in law. Thankfully my sister has better taste so politely turned him down every time.

All that said....I can’t wait to see if he pops on his SAS territorial Army outfit come 31st January and scales Big Ben himself .

I don’t know what he’s like as an MP though to be fair.

Morning, Duck, what an opportunity lost

Think of all the family occasions he would have livened up...weddings, christenings, funerals.

He's of entertainment value but as I said, I'm glad he's not my MP.

Ark, I think it would be a great pity if Labour ignored the so called red wall and the aspirational wc voters.
I think any political party has to try and appeal to everyone otherwise people will feel marginalised.
Of course they must appeal to the young and the city dwellers but it is clear that the Workington Man people also need to be listened to. I don't think they are right wing or any wing.
They want a political party that reflects their needs and aspirations. Not much to ask really.

And apart from anything else we need a functioning opposition and we won't get that if the Labour Party don't shape up. And soon.

I have donated to the Big Ben fund but I accept that it won't happen and if the money goes to help the heroes then that's great.

I think we have a lot to celebrate on 31st but that's not to say it's the end.
It is far from over. We need a friendly, cooperative relationship with the countries of the EU. But we also need them with many other countries as well.
It's time to move on. I think we all accept that.
I hope you enjoy your time in the pub. The food is great as is the company. (Well, most of it)

The immediate impact is that we regain the right to set our own tax rates such as VAT, regain supremacy of UK law and have the freedom to begin negotiating our own trade deals

Theoretically maybe.

The real test comes when we see what we actually do and compare that to what was possible whilst in the EU along with weighing up what we’ve lost by leaving

Theoretically maybe.

Not theoretically. In fact, in truth and in law.

The theoretical bit is whether we do as well as, or better, under our own steam as we would have done remaining as members of the EU. I can't predict that, any more than you can.

Remember that while the UK evolves and changes, the EU will be doing the same. That's inevitable. It will have lost something like 11% of its income and its population. It will have lost a net contributor. If it has any sense, it won't lose a trading partner, security and intelligence ally. If we have any sense, we will make sure we remember that. Both should endeavour to be good neighbours and reliable friends.

The theoretical bit is whether we do as well as, or better, under our own steam as we would have done remaining as members of the EU

That’s what I meant - in theory we can do those things but in reality I suspect we won’t do much we couldn’t have done before

Remember we won’t have the big bad EU to blame for unpopular decisions anymore

“Remember we won’t have the big bad EU to blame for unpopular decisions anymore”

No bad thing, accountability helps democracy imo.

No bad thing, accountability helps democracy imo.

Sadly accountability hasn’t been very high up on our current politicians list lately

Of course they must appeal to the young and the city dwellers but it is clear that the Workington Man people also need to be listened to.
The Conservatives are 'listening', or pretending to.
I don't think they are right wing or any wing.
I disagree. The fact that they voted how they did clearly marks them out as 'right'.

Interesting that you mention 'aspirational' WC when only yesterday you and other posters were pillorying the Labour leadership candidates for being the wrong kind of working class (having mothers with good jobs in the NHS/marrying judges/living in the 'wrong' part of Manchester etc), although son-of-a-bus-driver Javid was apparently the right kind of aspirational WC come good.

Remember we won’t have the big bad EU to blame for unpopular decisions anymore

Another thing on which we agree, Bear. Our politicians have been stealing a living for too long. Now they need to earn their corn, just like the rest of us. I genuinely think that part of the Parliamentary shock over the referendum result was due to precisely that.

The GE election result was a sharp reminder by the people that MPs are there to represent their constituencies in Parliament, not represent Parliament in their constituencies.

The HoL isn't elected, of course, but they need a sharp reminder that picking up their daily £305 (a fortune to much of the country) is just one half of the deal. They need to justify it.

Interesting Guardian article thanks Arkadas.
This bit is most interesting:

'It won’t be easy for Labour to find a politics that satisfies both homeowning pensioners living in depopulating towns and villages, and precariously employed young renters living in overcrowded cities. In their assets, in their attitudes, in their economic experiences, their lives are ever more different. Meanwhile, under Boris Johnson the Tories seem more interested than they have been for decades in listening to the Britain beyond their own heartlands in southern England.'

Corbyn knew this was going to happen, hence his persistent fence sitting. He couldn't please both so went with pleasing none. IMO once Brexit is finally legally happening, as that is what swung a large majority of heartland labour voters, the window of opportunity to win back votes is now and in the coming months, not in 5 years. No point sticking to principles if you are a party that wants to be elected - you have to look at how you can get back those lent votes by not writing them off as right wing, rather than determined to see democracy upheld.

It won't be easy and a lot rests on the newly elected labour leader.

If accountability were a priority, BJ, whose career as mayor and as Foreign Secretary were dogged by a series of costly failures, both financially (water cannons, bridges, buses...) and in terms of the personal safety of UK citizens (Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe), wouldn't be PM.

I have donated to the Big Ben fund but I accept that it won't happen and if the money goes to help the heroes then that's great.

I genuinely can’t get my head round this

Why not just donate to Help the Heroes then?

What is the point in wasting money on trying to make a bell ring?

The theoretical bit is whether we do as well as, or better, under our own steam as we would have done remaining as members of the EU. I can't predict that, any more than you can
Who is going to measure whether we are doing as well as or better? People are already making excuses when, for example, businesses go under, and saying it has 'nothing to do with' Brexit. I expect we will hear this much more in the future. Literally everything bad will be 'nothing to do with Brexit'. Of course, if the metaphorical unicorns DO actually get delivered, which I'm fervently hoping happens, it will be entirely down to Brexit.

It’s not about politicians choosing to make ‘themselves’ accountable, it’s more about the removal of another smoke screen that prevents the ‘electorate’ from holding them to Account.

And unfortunately in your example Ark, whilst all of that may be true, Corbyn, to many voters, represented a much bigger threat to the safety of UK citizens. Associating oneself with terrorists and dangerous theocracies for money and photo ops, was never going to come over well was it?

It’s not about politicians choosing to make ‘themselves’ accountable, it’s more about the removal of another smoke screen that prevents the ‘electorate’ from holding them to Account.

Time will tell but I think you’re giving them way more credit than they’ve proven themselves to deserve and you’re also over estimating how much power the electorate has

The Tories won because the opposition was unthinkable, not because they themselves were a fantastic choice

I shall be contributing a jar (or several) of marmelade to the breakfast table in the next day or so, Lily. DH complained that I didn't make enough last year, so I have doubled the quantities and am now worried there aren't enough jam jars to hold it all!

I've not read the paper yet as I've been busy ^^, and therefore have no political comment to make. But I see there was a bit of a fracas in here after I left last night! Tempers were clearly roused. No bruises I hope?

Labour are the ones with the crisis right now, they can either remain in abject denial, or they can accept their current reality and adapt. I prefer the latter personally, thus ebabling a strong opposition and yet more accountability, because, democracy.

“The Tories won because the opposition was unthinkable, not because they themselves were a fantastic choice”

I don’t disagree, and as you well know Bear, this is a point I have made repeatedly myself.

I’m not giving any politicians credit, that’s actually my point.

I think it’s the ‘Big Ben bongers’ and the ‘it’s all over on 31st Jan’ Leavers who wind those who never wanted this up

I couldn't care less if Big Ben bongs, however if I dont think it should be stopped just because remainers feel 'wound up'. How do you think leavers felt about 3+ years of being antagonised by attempts to stop a democratic vote to leave the EU.

On the 31st of Jan a lot of Brexit will be over. We will legally have left the EU. There will be no more leavers and remainers, just British people and rejoiners. No more arguments in parliament to stop Brexit. No more marches to stop Brexit. We will have crossed a line that their is no going back from.

But no one is pretending it will be the end of agreeing our new relationship with the EU (or any country). No one is denying that not much will change in 2020 and adjusting to the new relationship wont really start until 2021.

The debate should no longer split the UK, as everyone wants a good future relationship with the EU. The details of which do not need to be fought over by the public as we now have a functioning parliament and our elected MPs can deal with all that, calmly & without histrionics.

For most, after January, Brexit can be put to the back of their minds at least for the next year.

Donation of marmalade always warmly welcomed, thank you, Xing.

We've installed extra ceiling vents at the far end of the bar to send all of the hot air directly to Birmingham and, now, Walsall in our efforts to be environmentally responsible.

Any noise generated from there can be safely ignored. It's just the builders at work and having a laugh by parodying what they are reading on Twitter.

Well said walking. 👏

*I have donated to the Big Ben fund but I accept that it won't happen and if the money goes to help the heroes then that's great.

I genuinely can’t get my head round this*

I completely get this. The point is not that Big Ben rings but that

1. Remainers complain so much they cannot then very well feel entitled to have a final protest hurrah
2. Leavers have a way of putting their money where their mouth is and volunteering extra tax to signify that the State is carrying out their wishes.

Donating the money to Help for Heroes and doing a lower cost hi-tech light show is preferable. One of the DexEU staffers have even come up with a techno Bong soundtrack.