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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Undecideds

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/12/2019 19:55

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

OP posts:
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DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 13:19

I have just completed a YouGov which had a question:

If the world was run by women (I like the tacit admission it isn't) would it be:

More Peaceful
About as Peaceful
Less Peaceful

than at present ?

DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 13:20

.

Westminstenders: The Undecideds
derxa · 11/12/2019 13:20

While undecided voters could jump either way, can't see anything specific that would push anyone towards Johnson in this last day or two! Anybody but Corbyn and No to independence for me

Butterymuffin · 11/12/2019 13:26

@derxa sure, but those have been issues all along. I meant I couldn't imagine anything from the last few days, since the YouGov data was gathered, that would make anyone think 'well, I wasn't sure but after that it's Johnson for me'

NarfZort · 11/12/2019 13:27

The Lib Dem candidate has already conceded he cannot win

Are you in the South to my North @RedToothBrush? I'm glad to hear he's done that, I've been embarrassed by the LDs recently.

derxa · 11/12/2019 13:30

Buttery The so called 'shy Tories'

CrunchyCarrot · 11/12/2019 13:44

I figured out the answer to my question... first past the post means that percentage vote share doesn't translate directly into seats, and that's why there's a big discrepancy.

Songsofexperience · 11/12/2019 13:48

first past the post means that percentage vote share doesn't translate directly into seats, and that's why there's a big discrepancy.

Interestingly how does that square with the leavers' argument about 51.8% being a crushing majority in favour of brexit?
Surely with that logic the Tories should lose their majority in any case then, right?

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 11/12/2019 13:49

Very late pmk

Oakenbeach · 11/12/2019 13:57

While undecided voters could jump either way, can't see anything specific that would push anyone towards Johnson in this last day or two!

I’m not sure i agree.... I believe that within the undecideds there is a sizeable group that doesn’t like BJ, doesn’t want Brexit, but will very reluctantly hold their nose and vote Tory as they believe that “getting Brexit done” is the least worst option and are fearful of yet more paralysis if it doesn’t. You may not share their analysis, but it’s my hunch there are quite a few such voters out there.

Before you get depressed by the thought, I should add I’ve been consistently wrong about elections over the past few years, from Brexit to Trump, so I am quite likely to be wrong on this too.

TheABC · 11/12/2019 14:03

I am feeling oddly hopeful. Johnson does not want to actually win. So if it's a hung Parliament, I will celebrate, if it's not I will work on plan B and enjoy watching the bastard squirm.

CrunchyCarrot · 11/12/2019 14:04

Interestingly how does that square with the leavers' argument about 51.8% being a crushing majority in favour of brexit?

That was a referendum of course, but it's hardly 'crushing' is it! A narrow squeak is what I'd call it.

georgedawes · 11/12/2019 14:07

Are you in the NW RTB? That is really interesting from the Lib Dems.

I'm in a Lab/Tory marginal and it's moved from tossup to likely Lab on the Yougov MRP. I would expect it to be tight, but the conservative candidate has had a pasting on social media and there is a sea of red signs across the constituency. Of course, it may just be that Tories vote without putting a sign in their window!

I definitely detect a massive gender difference with views on BJ though. I see a lot of older people through my work, and many of the women tell me how much they think he is a fool, even life long Tories. The men seem to like him a lot more. How that'll effect their votes really though, who knows.

Rowanberries · 11/12/2019 14:13

There's some money being thrown at my constituency- a 2 minute scroll through my fb feed had no fewer than 10 different pro brexit/ anti corbyn ads. Theres nothing in my likes that would suggest I'd want to see these so it must be on location only. I've not seen a single tory/brexit party/ pro brexit thing before this week and they've been multiplying each day.

dreichXmas · 11/12/2019 14:16

@Oakenbeach I know two blokes who definitely fit into that category.
Despite being remain voters who don't like BJ they are scared of more paralysis and think voting Tory is the least worst option.
(They also despise Corbyn and don't warm to Swinson)

I suspect that they will have a common response but not universal by any means.

Icantreachthepretzels · 11/12/2019 14:21

The so called 'shy Tories'

But surely 'shy tories' are ... tories. Not undecideds. They're just quiet about their political leaning, but they are still tories. I believe they started weighting in the shy tory vote after 1992.

That still leaves genuine undecideds watching a man hiding in a fridge to avoid scrutiny.

StarryGazeyEyes · 11/12/2019 14:21

My constituency has LD on 37% and Tories on 54%, which would be an increase on last time Sad. The Tory candidate has done zero campaigning, and done nothing for this area since he was elected in 2015. LDs have been throwing everything at it. I'm definitely voting tactically for LD, but am currently trying to swap my vote with someone who'll vote Labour where it can count. I'm feeling utterly despondent and rather tearful today.

derxa · 11/12/2019 14:27

But surely 'shy tories' are ... tories. Maybe but people don't have a party political microchip inserted at birth.

dontcallmelen · 11/12/2019 14:30

Starry I feel the same today, I’m ready to burst into tears at the slightest thing, really really must stop myself looking at some other threads on MN at the moment as well😢

DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 14:33

www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/as-a-lifelong-conservative-heres-why-i-cant-vote-for-boris-johnson/

As a lifelong Conservative, here’s why I can’t vote for Boris Johnson

This government is an explicit repudiation of everything it means to be a Conservative. History will judge us accordingly.

Peter Oborne

11 December 2019

Sect leader

|

Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire/PA Images. All rights reserved.

In autumn 1977 Paul Johnson wrote a memorable article for the New Statesman explaining why he could no longer support Labour. “One reason why I joined the Labour party,” he wrote, “was that I believed it stood by the helpless and persecuted, and by the angular non-conformist.” For him, Labour no longer did this – thanks to trade union corporatism from below, and Marxist intellectuals above.

I was an undergraduate at the time, and this article changed my political outlook so profoundly that I can recall the moment I read it. As for Paul Johnson, a giant of literary and political journalism, his timing was sublime. He called the moment when Labour, which in 1977 seemed the natural party of government, embarked on its journey to irrelevance and worse.

Forty-two years later, the Conservative Party is open to the same despairing verdict. The Conservatives have become a vehicle for well-drilled fanatics who, like the Militant tendency forty years ago, infiltrate constituency parties in order to deselect MPs who offend doctrinal purity.

There is no more Conservative figure than Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general. His offence? Standing up for parliamentary democracy and the rule of law. These are, it seems, hanging offences in Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party.

The prime minister, who is one of the most brilliant men to enter Downing Street, ought not to need reminding that the Conservative Party came into existence in the wake of the French Revolution as a defender of institutions – church, monarchy, parliament, rule of law – against abstraction, ideology and ultimately political violence.

But Johnson’s new Conservatives have abandoned these origins, and become a sect. They have detached themselves from the everyday concerns of ordinary people and are waging a destructive war on the British system of government.

Johnson’s Downing Street has been hostile to Parliament and contemptuous of the civil service. It has humiliated the Cabinet, mocked due process, repudiated the rule of law, made light of monarchy and played games with the integrity of the United Kingdom.

This government is not simply un-conservative. It is an explicit repudiation of everything that it means to be a Conservative.

Constitutional vandalism, and dark money

When I was political correspondent at The Spectator magazine under Boris Johnson’s editorship at the start of this century, we mercilessly analysed and exposed the constitutional vandalism of Labour’s Prime Minister Tony Blair. Now Johnson, counselled by his amoral, dangerous ‘senior adviser’ Dominic Cummings, has been doing exactly the same.

"Amoral, dangerous" | Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire/PA Images. All rights reserved.

Dominic Cummings has variously denounced civil servants as “grotesque incompetents” and non-compliant Tory MPs as “narcissist-delusional”, and idly speculated about “bombing parliament.” Cummings and Johnson are both creatures of big money – a point persistently missed by Britain’s client political press.

The apparently magical ability to whistle up donor cash at a moment’s notice is the main explanation of Cummings’ mastery. “After this meeting,” he told a meeting of special advisers, “I’m going to go and meet billionaire hedge fund managers and get a giant pot of cash from them.”

When his role came under threat in the early days of the Vote Leave campaign, Cummings boasted: “The donors are going to see them off.” Cummings is often framed as master of the dark arts. Dark money is more apt.

The inside word is that big donors, some of whom have profited from Brexit instability, will soon be elevated to the Lords. (There is form on these squalid arrangements, as openDemocracy has previously reported.)

These hedge-fund managers and private donors have purchased their domination of the Tories in the same way the union barons bought Michael Foot’s Labour. Big cheques from obscure private sources are an important part of the explanation of how the Johnson clique seized control of the Tory party late last July.

What do these rich and unaccountable people want in return for this munificence? Nobody in Fleet Street asks. Britain’s supposedly independent and fearless press don’t want to ask, let alone know.

They also don’t ask how Boris Johnson meets his notoriously expensive private financial commitments on his meagre prime ministerial salary, now that he no longer enjoys his reported £250,000 a year from The Daily Telegraph. His hero Winston Churchill was helped out by lavish private subventions from business tycoons. Is history repeating itself?

A government of whatever it takes

This government is a repudiation of everything that Boris Johnson’s own Spectator once stood for. This has been made abundantly clear in the abandonment of sound finance in Tory policy and the choice of cabinet ministers.

Disgraced, but not for long | Isabel Infantes/EMPICS Entertainment. All rights reserved.

No defence secretary since Profumo in 1962 has suffered disgrace like Gavin Williamson. He was sacked by Theresa May, acting on the strong advice of the intelligence services and the cabinet secretary, for disclosing secret conversations. Profumo spent the following forty years doing charity work in the East End as penance. Williamson was recalled to Johnson’s cabinet within a few months, rewarded for his role in organising the prime minister’s leadership campaign. Grant Schapps and Priti Patel are two other inappropriate appointments. There are others.

Only loyalty matters. “Whatever it takes” is now the motto in Downing Street – the term used by Malcolm X when he rejected the principled non-violence of Martin Luther King.

In this context, that means: Lie. Cheat. Bully. Threaten. Insult the monarchy. Be prepared to destroy the union. Drag the Queen into politics. Risk economic chaos and devastation. All legitimised by official permission to do “whatever it takes”.

A leap in the dark

Is it at all possible to be a Conservative and support this Johnson government?

Edmund Burke famously wrote in ‘Reflections on the Revolution in France’:

Because half a dozen grasshoppers under a fern make the field ring with their importunate chink, whilst thousands of great cattle, reposed beneath the shadow of the British oak, chew the cud and are silent, pray do not imagine that those who make the noise are the only inhabitants of the field.

This classic defence of the middle ground against clever metropolitan opinion once defined where all Conservative governments stood.

Not any more. Now, the grasshoppers have taken control from the ruminative cows. The government has been run by three grasshoppers: two brilliant former journalists – Johnson and Gove – and their intellectual thug Cummings. And they have been joined during this election campaign by Lynton Crosby’s protege Isaac Levido, who runs a ruthless ‘meme machine’ that makes a mockery of truth and moderation.

Together, these grasshoppers consistently place the end before the means – which means neglect of due process; readiness to mislead; and Leninist obsession with ideological rectitude. In particular, political lying has reached epidemic proportions in the few short months since Johnson and Cummings entered Downing Street.

We Conservatives are careful students of history. We know that men and women are frail, imperfect, corruptible and sometimes capable of great evil. That explains why we have always paid such attention to the importance of institutions which, as Burke explained, embody wisdoms and truths which are beyond the comprehension of individual minds.

Michael Oakeshott, the greatest Conservative thinker of the twentieth century, noted that there was no Conservative ideology. Instead, there is a Conservative disposition which “understands it to be the business of government not to inflame passion and give it new objects to feed on, but to inject into the activities of already passionate men an ingredient of moderation; to restrain, to deflate, to pacify and to reconcile”.

Today, there is a popular thesis in political journalism, faithfully echoing Downing Street propaganda, that the Conservative Party can only survive by pushing through Brexit – whatever it takes.

This does a grave injustice to Conservatism, which is about avoiding the kind of leap into the dark promised by Boris Johnson and his crew of destroyers.

As the historian Richard Cockett – whose study of British press complicity with Chamberlain’s Downing Street during Appeasement is highly relevant today – wrote in the summer about Johnson’s no deal plans:

The long, fragile supply chains of small British companies criss-crossing Europe are conservatism in economic action. They should endure or wither according to “human circumstances”, not be hostage to the intervention of an impetuous legislator.

Cockett warned against breaking all these “micro-links for an uncertain future”. His words could not be more prescient.

Brexit has mutated from a virtuous and even admirable attempt to reassert British sovereignty into a brutal assault on everything we stand for.

Like Paul Johnson turning his back on Labour forty years ago, there is no way that I can as a lifelong Conservative vote for Boris Johnson’s revolutionary clique this week. Decent, middle-of-the-road Conservatives have no choice but to oppose this unremitting war on everything the party has fought to save and protect over the last 200 years. History will judge us accordingly.

StarryGazeyEyes · 11/12/2019 14:48

dontcallmelen this is about the only bit of mn I can handle at the moment! I'm going to keep at it till the last moment, but once that little flame of hope has been extinguished I don't know if I can do it. Someone said ealier that if the Tories win with a majority that is the time to really engage (or word's to that effect), and while it's right I don't know if I have it in me, and the urge to retreat and just focus on those we love is huge. I hope we can have a thread once this is over to help us through the dark days if they come.

3dogs2cats · 11/12/2019 14:52

Just me then. I don’t believe that poll. I think it will b a hung parliament.
I have looked at it so long I got a migraine. What’s missing is the excitement of being in a constituency where it’s close. And there are so many,like that.
I am furious that the press have not been neutral. Furious with the dirty tricks of the Conservative campaign. The accusation that the picture of the little boy in Leeds was faked may have come from Hancocks office. That is disgraceful.
But seeing up close the energy of LabourParty members in a Conservative safe seat, gives me hope. Let’s wait and see.

RedToothBrush · 11/12/2019 14:57

I am in the North West.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 11/12/2019 15:04

The "losers consent" has always been based on requiring the winners to have played by the rules
The dirty tricks and blatant lying of the hard right are as despicable this GE as they were in the ref campaign

Hence I expect long-lasting bitterness and anger if the Tories get a working majority
The Tories will try to counter this by being ever more authoritarian and using their powers to shut down disssent

So, unless they back off from their authoritarianism, they will drive the UK into a downwards spiral that will eventually break the back of the country
because
the Tories are prepared to break the country, to rule it

Ellie56 · 11/12/2019 15:09

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