Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...?

[RedToothBrush]

Speaker Bercow is gone.

Speculation that Johnson is parachuting into Rutland.

Rumours that the Brexit Party won't contest the election.

A new speaker to be elected on Monday.

Parliament to dissolve next week.

Brexit? Oh we've forgotten that until Friday 13th...

What I wouldn't give to go back to cone hotline times!

I think it unlikely there would be no deal as MPs voted the latest bill through its second reading., the Tories support it and if they get a majority this time they can pass it pretty quickly if they win in December.

It is Farage who is for no deal (Brexit Party) . However we will leave if the Tories get in. I voted remain but I accept we lost the referendum and we will leave.

I agree that the most likely outcome is a Tory victory,
but that there is also the chance of a hung Parliament and a GNU

In the former case, it'll be either No Deal after transition, or a bare minimum EU FTA which would amount to much the same for the country.

re Major:
He was a Tory and carried out Tory policies
He uttered Tory soundbites

He was also a decent bloke and I trusted him when it came to the important issue and not the usual party political games

If he were PM now, I would trust him both to face down those hard right bastards and to try to do the right thing for the country in the negotiations

Whereas BJ as PM is one of the bastards himself and would always try to do the right thing for BJ

Individuals matter as much as the party label
Unfortunately too much of what is now under the Tory label has crawled out from under the political rocks

Citation needed

I know you love that phrase just, it does soon ridiculous though

I’m not sure how much more of a citation you need than the thousands of Labour supporters who won’t vote Labour because of Corbyn and the fact that, despite all BJ has done, he’s still much more popular than any alternative

But sit back and think a Labour win is possible if it suits you

Personally I think hell will freeze over first

And by the time one of us is proven wrong it might be too late - we might already have 5 more years of the Tories

Bear

So brace yourselves for 5 more years of Tory government then

When was the last time there was five continuous years of Tory government?

Let me refresh your memory.

That would be 1992 under John Major.

Tbh although I personally think the mostly likely outcome of this election is a Tory majority, I'm surprised at the "brace yourselves for 5 more years" certitude, from people who were 100% convinced not 4 weeks ago that we would be leaving the EU on 31st October.

Gonna screenshot some of these quotes this time, for easy future reference.

I think it unlikely there would be no deal as MPs voted the latest bill through its second reading., the Tories support it and if they get a majority this time they can pass it pretty quickly if they win in December.

The bill is for the WA, that is not ‘the deal’

1992-1997.

I think it unlikely there would be no deal as MPs voted the latest bill through its second reading., the Tories support it and if they get a majority this time they can pass it pretty quickly if they win in December.

If the tories win no deal is (probably) off the table for the beginning of the year. It will happen at the end of the year. We will have until June to either negotiate an FTA or request a transition. If the transition request is not made then No deal becomes a certainty (barring I suppose an emergency rejoin) in Dec 2020.

This is what Boris Johnson has promised his ERGers - it is the only way they were willing to support the deal.

A vote for tory is still a vote for no deal. Just a year later. And anyone minded to vote for them has to go to the ballot box knowing that.

Xenia I expect that if the Tories win, then the WA will be passed in time to Brexit on 31 Jan

However, it is what happens after transition that is the real issue:

Politically, it would be very difficult for BJ to request an extension in early July,
but he can't get a EU FTA - which must also be approved by 38 national & regional Pariaments - in 11 months

Even with an extended transition, the minimum EU FTA which is all that his red lines permit would not differ much from No Deal ... for GB

I fully accept that Ireland and especially the 1.8 million in NI are permanently protected by this WA, but the 65 million in GB are not.

It'll still need time to pass through the committee stages.

So there'll most likely need to be a short technical extension if Johnson decides to take the bill forward (there is no guarantee of this).

Then 3-4 months of arguing over the cost of an extension to the transition.

It is difficult to trust a PM who has been repeated sacked for lying

Everyone lies at some time, but v few of us lie - in their profession not their private life - to such an extent as to be repeatedly sacked.

Tbh although I personally think the mostly likely outcome of this election is a Tory majority, I'm surprised at the "brace yourselves for 5 more years" certitude, from people who were 100% convinced not 4 weeks ago that we would be leaving the EU on 31st October.

misti you actually think I’m a Leaver don’t you?

Where have I once said I thought we’d leave on 31st Oct?

There’s no way BJ was ever going to push the button on no deal and couldn’t get through his WA in time

You know what I was saying about people round here just looking at the posters username and not what they actually say...........

Bearbehind - as an experiment, why don't you name change and come back to post here - I think you will find it's nothing to do with favouritism of other posters or bullying and everything to do with your totally negative and mulish style.

I think we both know that’s not true arse

Newbies get short shrift on here too as they’re assumed to be bots

You say I’m negative, I think I’m just realistic

Time will tell who’s right

Strangely pleased to see Farago back on our screens, he is convincing and seems entirely sane when compared to BJ. Really hoping BXP will cost Con seats. Also good to see LDs not contest Beaconsfield, may even hand Grieve a tenner myself, would love to see him trounce the Con candidate and continue to be the polite pain in the arse he's been.

Looking at Brexit timing:

the WA has to be passed by the EP, who have stated they will only do so once the WA has been approved by Parliment and received Royal Assent

In 2019, the EP only have the plenary session 16-19 December, before they recess
So no time to Brexit on1 Jan.

In January, the EP plenary sessions are around 15-16 Jan and 29-30 Jan

With a working majority, BJ could force the WA through in time for the mid-Jan session,
but more likely Brexit would be 31 January,or possibly even later

WIthout a Tory majority, the EU would want the WA passed and then further negotiations to be after Brexit
However, the new UK govt could opt to choose a completely different relationship to the minimum FTA that BJ intends

Bear Most of us think a Tory win is more likely, or at least as likely as a hung Parliament with GNU
Few expect a Labour working majority

Criticising the Tories for being hard right doesn't mean we think a hard right govt can't be elected

People here are taking what practical measures they can to stop this, such as tactical voting, offering lifts and making donations to rebels like Grieve

Apart from locking Corbyn in the loo until 13 December - and we'd get arrested for that ! - not a lot else that ordinary people like us can do

Apart from locking Corbyn in the loo until 13 December - and we'd get arrested for that ! - not a lot else that ordinary people like us can do

Maybe not everyone but the Labour Party members could certainly demand more instead of putting him on a pedestal as just does

I agree completely with @BigChocFrenzy on this.
I've donated a bit to Grieve as it seems only fair in exchange for the grief he has had to put up with for being a sane and moderate voice of reason.

putting him on a pedestal as just does

LMFAO sure I do [grin']

Anyway, who else has a feeling that the Brexit Party might just pffft into nothing this GE?

just you absolutely do - he can do no wrong in your view despite hundreds of people on here and thousands IRL stating he is the reason they won’t vote Labour

If you want to keep the Tories out you have to make the alternative credible and, because of JC, it’s simply not good enough

Again I wont take the opinion of a Tory as to who we should have as a leader

Again I wont take the opinion of a Tory as to who we should have as a leader

Perfectly proving my earlier points