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Brexit

Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2019 08:26

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

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thecatfromjapan · 21/10/2019 15:17

You know, if this Deal goes through with Labour votes, I reckon there is going to have to be a major 'Get the Vote Out' operation in Islington to ensure Corbyn doesn't lose his seat.

And that's sad - because, of course, it means people will be there, not fighting for additional seats - seats we need to win.

I'm hoping that none of this happens but ...

It's going to be grim af if this deal goes through with Labour votes.

ListeningQuietly · 21/10/2019 15:17

Re Austerity being the real problem
TOO RIGHT IT IS
But as the Labour leadership wanted to leave, it was easier to allow the anti EU rhetoric to take over
rather than campaigning to remain within the EU protections and then unravel austerity.
Thanks Jezza Sad

tobee · 21/10/2019 15:21

Anyway, any news on today? I popped over to BBC Parliament channel a minute ago and it was defence questions?!?!

JustAnotherPoster00 · 21/10/2019 15:21

But as the Labour leadership wanted to leave

Even though in all interviews Corbyn had said on balance he'd prefer to stay in and reform?

thecatfromjapan · 21/10/2019 15:23

Lexit the Personal project, Just. According to Andy Fisher.

thecatfromjapan · 21/10/2019 15:24

Anyway.

It's water.under.the.bridge.

Going forwards ...

ListeningQuietly · 21/10/2019 15:24

JustAnother
JC was the ONLY party leader not to look gutted by the result.
He wanted A50 invoked in June 2016

He never was and never will be pro EU
thecatfromjapan · 21/10/2019 15:28

It's sounding very much as though Conservative whipping (&bribes, threats & blandishments) are going to get this Deal - without amendments) over the line.

So, tomorrow is going to be quite a nail-biter.

We may never find out whether Johnson would have made good on his 'I'll throw the bill out' threats. Or what would have happened had he done that.

DGRossetti · 21/10/2019 15:28

Whatever polling reflects it ain't my demographic...

Polling reflects the votes pollsters can easily (i.e. cheaply) get too. You then add each polling organisations "special sauce" to turn that fragment of a fraction of an inkling into a fully rounded "prediction" that can determine how 30,000,000 voters will actually vote.

Astrology is probably more reliable.

The whole business is an unhealthy hegemony, whereby people paying (as little as possible ...) for polls have to be placated with results they believe (notice, not results that are the truth).

You can bet your talking action figure of Margaret Thatcher that if a polling body were to submit a poll to a Tory-commissioning client that showed anything other than total victory for a general election, they'd pretty soon be an ex-polling body for that client.

That's before you factor in people who lie in response to pollsters (dashed unsporting, what ?) people whose response change subsequently, people who don't understand the question, and polls that have been "tweaked" to force a response.

Still trust them ?

Have I mentioned how pollsters adduce and deduce responses as part of the data cleansing process ? So even if you answered "don't know", the ever-so-special-sauce uses other responses you have given to "predict" what you would have answered had you bothered to make up your mind. YouGov are good at this last, as they have oceans of survey responses from which they can segment and resegment data sets.

TL;DR - the less you pay for your poll, the less it's worth; and the more you pay for it doesn't make it much better.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/10/2019 15:28

I'm also puzzled by the lack of brexit on Parliament tv. Has it been cancelled?

54321go · 21/10/2019 15:29

The last time the HoC was actually decisive and eventually got something done.
It on;y took them 16 days to sign off on the contract.

prettybird · 21/10/2019 15:31

Interestingly, the Tory benches aren't full Hmm

fedup21 · 21/10/2019 15:32

It's sounding very much as though Conservative whipping (&bribes, threats & blandishments) are going to get this Deal - without amendments) over the line.

Really? How depressing.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 21/10/2019 15:33

oh here we go

prettybird · 21/10/2019 15:33

Hahaha - Smug's cunning plan wasn't quite so cunning Grin

PotterHead1985 · 21/10/2019 15:33

Bout time. Listening to the defence questions for the last hour nearly sent me demented.

prettybird · 21/10/2019 15:34

Turning Erskine May back on Smug. 😂

JustAnotherPoster00 · 21/10/2019 15:35

JC was the ONLY party leader not to look gutted by the result.

Is that it? FML

prettybird · 21/10/2019 15:37

....get worried every time Bercow says "however" - but it is only to slap the government down still further Grin

RedToothBrush · 21/10/2019 15:38

Bercow says No to the WA Debate and Vote.

Same motion without any change in circumstances since Saturday.

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prettybird · 21/10/2019 15:39

"Proper respect for the decisions that [the House] takes"

Burned Grin

tobee · 21/10/2019 15:39

What next?

tobee · 21/10/2019 15:40

Sorry I know we've been told Blush

PotterHead1985 · 21/10/2019 15:40

The snotty fuck that said glad someone does when Peter Bone said he understood the Speakers point.

LouiseCollins28 · 21/10/2019 15:41

Speaker Bercow using the Speakership to stop Brexit. Again. Well colour me surprised! Sad

Any doubts about his professed "neutrality" absolutely gone.

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