Boris and Leo Varadkar “see pathway” to a deal

[elprup]

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/10/boris-johnson-and-leo-varadkar-say-they-see-pathway-to-brexit-deal

What are your thoughts? Does this mean Brexit is going ahead after all?

After three years of this I am amazed to see people still swallowing the spin hook line and sinker rather than saying "let's wait for the detail".

True, but I find Varadkar fairly reliable. At least in comparison to the British lot, not that that's saying much.

It’s really significant that Leo has come out with this. It’s the first sign of any receptivity towards a new deal from the Irish side since the collapse of May’s WA, they’ve (rightly) held very firmly to their red lines. Will be interesting to see if BJ can get whatever-it-is through parliament though...

We will find out more details around lunchtime tomorrow according to Channel 4 News. I can’t imagine what this breakthrough could be that hasn’t been thought of already...

True, but I find Varadkar fairly reliable

It is still probably the case that there does not exist a deal that will please both the Irish government and the ERG/DUP. Therefore, if Johnson thinks he can get a deal, it is because he thinks enough Labour MPs will vote for it.

We'll see.

'Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit' - This is the latest headline on the Telegraph. Why do I get the feeling they are trying to turn brexitters against NI before announcing anything.

The best interpretation of this I've seen on Twitter is that Johnson and Varadkar both thought 'Well, there's no point in calling each other cunts just yet'.

Maybe he's given NI to RoI - hence Leo's grin...

Titchy ROI don't want us! Can someone explain what a joint customs area is please?

The sane approach would have been pursuing the softest of possible Brexits from the get go, which of course would have also best reflected the result of the referendum in which virtually half the country and exactly half the union did not want to Leave at all. But it was never about the best interests of the country, only the Conservative party from beginning to the end.

Maybe he's given NI to RoI - hence Leo's grin

Leo wouldn’t be smiling at that.

I think the DUP are about to get royally fucked, but word on the street says they’ve finally realised what no deal will do to their farming heartland vote, so they may be looking for an ‘out’.

This could be attempt by Boris to make it look like he’s close to a deal, so that he can wriggle his way around Benn bill. Isn’t getting a deal through parliament (but dropping it afterwards) the only way around the Benn deal? I haven’t read that a way to mitigate that risk has been implemented.

Don't worry OP, it will have all fizzled out by this time tomorrow.

I really hope it isn't a joint customs area if that would mean any change in the ROI's EU membership. I don't think Varadkar would do anything to jeopardise that relationship though.

I also really really really hope it's not about regular approval from Stormont. That'd be an absolute disaster.

The best interpretation of this I've seen on Twitter is that Johnson and Varadkar both thought 'Well, there's no point in calling each other cunts just yet'.

That’s where I am.

I think this is PR to make both look reasonable.

It just seems bizarre that no one has been able to come up with a solution for three years - and then it’s sorted in 90 minutes

1. We don't know what was agreed and whether it will fly with the DUP/ERG

1. It's likely that this is not a "new" idea but an old one that was previously rejected by the U.K.

Do you really think that it's "sorted"? The idea, whatever it is, has to be fleshed out and the details negotiated. And then it has to get through Parliament.

Somerville I saw a description of a few ways he could get round it. One being writing the letter asking for an extension and then immediately following it with another saying woops, ignore previous letter.
Another being just to ignore the requiremwnt entirely

Well if NI can be left in the customs union, so there is no hard border between ROI and NI, then that would be palatable to most apart from the DUP i presume.

BoJo has no problem chucking people under the bus, and it’s better if it’s the DUP rather than ROI.

My immediate thought was 'I wonder what he has promised Varadkar to get him on side?'

Surely there has to be a lie or a bribe behind this?

If it can be done quickly then it is by definition an off-the-shelf idea that has been worked on previously.

Remember that the Withdrawal Agreement all-UK backstop was a late concession by the EU to the U.K.

My immediate thought was 'I wonder what he has promised Varadkar to get him on side?'

Surely there has to be a lie or a bribe behind this?

I doubt it. If Varadkar agreed to anything that would put up a border it would kill his political career. Ireland is remarkably united on Brexit. You'll notice Varadkar's rivals say next to nothing about Brexit, because Varadkar and Coveney have simply taken the majority view.

Mindy is right, Leo varadkar party are in a minority government with its main opposition fianna fail. The main reason FF haven't pulled out of government and calling a general election is due to Brexit and I don't think they want the responsibility of it all goes wrong. All opposition are supporting the government in this. Leo seems to be a lot more buoyant after the meeting so if Boris Johnson promised him anything it was a change to the custom union some how. Of course that is until he meets the DUP and everything could change again.

It is still probably the case that there does not exist a deal that will please both the Irish government and the ERG/DUP. Therefore, if Johnson thinks he can get a deal, it is because he thinks enough Labour MPs will vote for it.

Or he knows they probably won’t but at least no-one can say he didn’t try to get a deal. Then he can’t be directly blamed for No Deal.

@Owlsintowels - My immediate thought was 'I wonder what he has promised Varadkar to get him on side?'

That's an extremely insulting comment. Ireland has been 100% consistent in their position throughout this. Suggesting Ireland would take a bribe, which could only involve throwing NI under the bus and reneging on our obligations under the GFA is disgusting. It's also reflective of the generally dismissive, condescending and xenophobic attitude many English have towards Ireland (I've never come across this attitude amongst other British people).

Politicians in the UK, particularly those in government, may be lacking in integrity. Please don't assume ours are the same.

Maybe he's given NI to RoI - hence Leo's grin

Why do British people think this something ROI want? The vast majority do not. As has been said again and again.