Will Johnson actually push the button on no deal?

[Bearbehind]

His plan is clearly to try and ‘scare’ the EU into agreeing to any old deal.

But it’s not working.

He knows no deal will be a disaster.

But which gives first

• Will the EU blink?
• Will he extend?
• Will he go for no deal?

I hope it gets resolved without any further extension. If no deal can be agreed on with over 3 years of talking, just get the UK out of the EU or revoke Article 50.

I’m totally fucked off with the indecision and just want an outcome; any outcome! Although I would prefer out of the EU if possible, I do understand others reluctance to take the big step.

Ken Clarke is a Remainer.
(I mean, if he's not a Remainer, who is?!)
In House of Commons, Clarke has voted for Brexit more often than Boris Johnson has.

Sorry... what was that about who tries to 'frustrate' and 'facilitate'?

Why on earth should remainers help facilitate Brexit?

Because it's a democracy, people were asked what they wanted and it's the politicians job to carry out the will of the people, whether or not they personally agree with it. So they should have worked to make the best of Brexit, securing the best terms possible, rather than just trying to frustrate it and consequently getting us nowhere. It has been a farce and we'd have stood a far better chance at getting a decent deal if everyone had pulled together rather than constantly bickering.

Who knows with boris.
I'm getting to the stage where I'm fed up.
It's the constant state of not knowing what's going to happen. I dont feel like I can plan anything long term.

So they should have worked to make the best of Brexit, securing the best terms possible

They did though.

Where it all went to rat shit was because ‘the best possible terms’ were always going to be much worse than we have now.

A bit of honesty from the beginning about that and Leave would never have won.

The problem is now that Leavers pretty much all still believe there is a better deal to be had - but there isn’t.

I know this is stupid but I wish there was a way of making Brexiteers put their money where their mouths are and bear the brunt of the financial calamity.

Because it's a democracy, people were asked what they wanted and it's the politicians job to carry out the will of the people, whether or not they personally agree with it.

Sorry, how many politicians had input into May’s red lines that she announced at the Tory Conference in 2016?

His plan is clearly to try and ‘scare’ the EU into agreeing to any old deal.

That is not his plan.

Will he extend?

He has to send the letter. His plan is to antagonise the EU so much that they refuse any extension to negotiations.

Will he go for no deal?

He has not been trying for a realistic deal. His calculation is that if he 'delivers brexit', or even if he vaingloriously fails to do so, he will sweep up the leave vote but the remain vote will be split.

He also calculates (correctly) that many people are so frustrated by the last 4 years that they have not paid attention to how awful his behaviour has actually been. He will get a lot of sun-reader type voters who just think he's showing 'strong leadership'.

He knows no deal will be a disaster.

That depends what you mean by disaster. It will not be good for the UK, yes he knows that; that is not an issue for him. Only a few hundred thousand will feel a big direct impact. Many who are impacted will blame the scapegoats he points at. When you weigh that cost against the chance for him to stay in power there is really no contest.

Will the EU blink?

No. They are not institutionally set up to break the Peace Treaty they have already signed. Even if they were they would not do it for what is on offer.

Boris will do what is most likely to win him an election and 5 years in power.

Brexit, deal or no no deal isn’t his aim. Winning a decent majority in a general aim is.

At the moment he wants a general election where he is fighting for Brexit but before No Deal happens.
Too long after No Deal could ruin his chances if there are things like medicine shortages and a rise in food prices.

So a forced extension then a general election is probably his ideal but if he can’t get that the No Deal and an immediate election.

Only a few hundred thousand will feel a big direct impact

If only that were true 🤔

Sorry, how many politicians had input into May’s red lines that she announced at the Tory Conference in 2016?

Why'd you ask?

Antigonads Tue 08-Oct-19 19:32:55
God I hope so. Can’t stand much more of this.

The shit will really only begin with a 'no-deal'. Only the exceptionally dim-witted would believe otherwise.

Why do you ask.

FFS - this continues to be soul destroying.

Join the dots people.

No deal is like throwing your own stuff out of a rented house, sitting out in the rain and demanding a new rental agreement from your old landlord for lower rent.

No one would ever go for it. It's a dumb red herring. I think even the brexit supporters now want to be able to back down with dignity, thus the betrayal/surrender bullshit.

Brexit is a great idea until it meets reality, then the bubble bursts.

They did though.

Nah, I don't think so. We had no bargaining chip because of all the infighting. Realistically, we needed to be fully prepared to go without a deal if necessary. As it is, Brussels are fairly confident we won't do that, so don't feel the need to be particularly flexible in terms of negotiation.

Maybe I’m naive (probably am), but I still don’t get why Johnson thinks going the full-Farage is what’s going to get him in power.

Farage never won a seat despite trying loads of times.

Surely a better bet would have been to just tell the truth and say we need to leave, but May didn’t prepare for no deal, so we’ll have a decent length extension and prepare properly, whilst negotiating for a deal along the way.

Surely he would have vacuumed up all the moderate votes if he’d done that, and those they lost to the Brexit party would have made no difference?

I mean, it’s obviously completely possible that I haven’t got a clue what I’m talking about, but I’ve been wondering about that for ages!

@GorkyMcPorky me too

Why do you think I ask?

May’s red lines have created the inability to agree a workable exit strategy that doesn’t fuck over NI.

Do you think May consulted Parliament to get cross party consensus?

Did she fuck. She only listened to her SPADs to appease the Tory Eurosceptics.

The shit will really only begin with a 'no-deal'. Only the exceptionally dim-witted would believe otherwise.

I researched the no deal process and then posted this on another thread. This is the no deal process for any lurking leavers :
•Upon no deal our status immediately changes to be an outside EU third country.
•Article 50 is obvs then over and trade negotiations occur under the EU’s normal third countries procedure.
• The negotiation starts (with distrust all around because of the no deal).
•At the outset of the negotiations the European Commission needs a new negotiating mandate from each of the individual the political leaders of the EU27.
•Then the proposals and counter proposals on the new relationship begin.
•The old chestnuts of the Irish backstop, the UK’s financial contribution, and EU citizens’ rights, the Court of Justice of the European Union would all have to be readdressed as a precondition for trade talks.
• Hopefully a shorter negotiation of new trade agreements for example like the free trade agreements with South Korea, Canada, Singapore, Japan and Vietnam (between six and eight years to negotiate),
• Or like Ukraine and Georgia – which took five and eight years respectively.
• Hopefully the UK negotiation would be shorter? Four years?
• It is likely the negotiations would include areas the EU can’t cover for example aviation or financial services, then another layer is necessary.
• To include stuff like aviation or financial services etc,negotiation must involve each individual member state. .
•Any agreement would then require the approval of all parliamentary bodies in the EU27.
•The national and some internal regional parliaments have a veto. As assent of all is required there could be delay. ( eg Wallonian parliament in Belgium initially had issues with the Canadian deal) .._

•	Hopefully eventually there’d be ratification. The process to achieve this is just more complex and time-consuming than the Article 50 process. 

Thats Farage's "clean" break No deal. It's also Johnson's "get it done" no deal. But half the great British public prefer disgusting WWII posters, sound bites and memes.

If we had ever thought no deal was the best option we would have done it 3 years ago.

It’s wasn’t and still isn’t so it’s an empty threat, and everyone except Leavers know that.

Leavers really need to get a grip and acknowledge that and the fact we never ‘held all the cards’ and it was never ‘the easiest deal in history’

They never needed us more the we need them.

THANK YOU lonelyplanetmum

You would think that with all the evidence as to what an unholy shit show a no deal will be that leave voters would have finally woken up but the hard liners have transformed from brexiters to no dealers, they have become a cult with BoJo as their messiah leading them to the promised land. The funny thing is BoJo himself doesn't believe any of his own rehetoric he just wants Farages votes to get a majority.

If you think Cameron's austerity years were bad then you ain't seen nothing yet, if Jonson gets 5 years in power the middle classes will get poorer, the working poor will become destitute and the destitute will die.
Welcome to Brexit Britain.

Do you mean Boris Johnson, champion of The People Against The Elite?

This one?

It's all bullshit so Johnson can run for election as the defender of Brexit who's been thwarted by Parliament and the EU. He's set them both up to blame for not leaving. It will be everyone's fault but his. This is all about him winning an election. It's manipulative and shameful.

There's no such thing as no deal. Without deals we have no functioning economy. If we crash out we'll be sorting out new deals for the next 20 years !

I just want someone to revoke A50 and tell the nation that we’re staying in the EU and that’s the end of the matter. I don’t care what leavers think - this has proven to be a total balls-up of epic proportions and it’s about time those in power admitted that. People talking about riots if we remain are overreacting - there might be a few half-hearted protests but then we’d get back to normal; life goes on. If people feel aggrieved that their vote doesn’t count for anything then I’m sorry, but they’ll just have to suck it up. Sometimes you have to act for the greater good and this is one of those times. You will never make everyone happy.

Sorry for the rant - I’m just so fed up.