Westminstenders: The Tory Party Spectacular

[RedToothBrush]

A row over parliamentary language and conduct and how MPs are afraid of extremists has over shadowed talk of Brexit.

Cummings has said if you don't want to leave without a deal, vote for a deal.

Yet there isn't a Johnson approved one in front of the Commons and the EU are utterly despairing of Johnson's blank non papers and his full on Trump bullshit.

Then there's the threats to the rule of law.

Apparently there are five known suggestions to bypass the Benn Act and refuse to ask for an extension.
See Twitter Thread Here

This weekend sees the start of the Tory Party Conference. With a parliamentary vote to block a recess, its rather scuppered plans for the rest of the conference. Johnson's planned speech at the conference clashes with PMQ so he may well not attend the Commons.

Expect the conference to be.... Er... Inflammatory...

PMK

If ever McDonnell becomes PM and mocks Tory MPs who have received death threats, whose families have received them,

mocks the murder of a Tory MP

Tells them the threats won't stop until they give in

Then I suppose you'll be happy for people to say "it's just what BJ did when he was PM"^

Hovis Ad now voiced by Hagrid

Ah so this is a local newspaper report on a council's Brexit assessment

COUNCIL chiefs have recognised they need to think about ‘what would happen’ if the ‘lean’ authority lost staff following Brexit.

As uncertainty continues over the United Kingdom’s scheduled withdrawal from the European Union, the council has included the matter on its risk register.

A description of the risk highlights the prospect of the authority being unable to ‘maintain a sufficiently skilled and stable workforce’.

A Councillor asked officers whether there are any ‘obvious problems’.

He said: “We probably don’t employ many EU citizens directly, do we?”

The politician was told it is recognised the council is a ‘pretty lean organisation’ and is reliant on a number of key individuals so it needs to try and think about ‘what would happen if we lose them for one reason or another’.

Especially when you consider Johnson has a problem with female voters as highlighted in the Times.

I expect lots of visitors during the election campaign highlighting the faults of others because let’s face it trying to defend his behaviour is a none starter .

Deflect and divert its all they have.

So Cummings spent several years in Russia before becoming involved in anti-EU stuff. Interesting.

My first thought on hearing that was ...

Lee Harvey Oswald .....

That tweet is terrible. It reminds me of that undercover documentary at the police training college where you got to hear what police recruits really thought about ethnic minorities etc.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-referred-to-police-watchdog-over-friendship-with-businesswoman-jennifer-arcuri-a4248861.html

DG I immediately thought of Oswald too !

I think the BJ drip feed from the press is starting. I suspect the men in grey suits are debating at what point he has become so toxic that Gove or someone similar will have to take over.

i expect we both thought Manchurian Candidate before Trump even became POTUS

COUNCIL chiefs have recognised they need to think about ‘what would happen’ if the ‘lean’ authority lost staff following Brexit.

Now who warned of that on these threads

Certain Tory MPs this time last year.

Calls to remove Tory whip after 'disgraceful' remarks about May
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/22/tories-identify-mps-vile-language-theresa-may-yvette-cooper

The Sunday Times quoted one unnamed Tory MP as saying: “The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted. She’ll be dead soon.”

Another said May was now entering “the killing zone”, and a third remarked: “Assassination is in the air.” In the Mail on Sunday, a source was quoted as saying that May should “bring her own noose” to a meeting of backbench Tories.
[...]
“Nobody should be subject to that kind of violent language, which I think is normalising violence in public debate at a time when we lost Jo Cox, we have had threats against Rosie Cooper, we have had other violent death threats against women MPs,” she [Yvette Cooper] said.

Quite rightly there was outright condemnation of the language from all parties.

Twitter thread which I will copy as best I can from my phone

Jim Cornelius @jim_cornelius
I’ve just had a brick thrown through my window.

Just to expand on "lean" operations ... they're all very well, but they rely on a very stable environment where future supply/demand patterns are known well in advance (think about the lead time to hire staff).

Turning a smooth ocean into a wave machine is going to cause strain for a lot of "lean" business, and not all will survive. They'll either go under, or need bailing out.

That's on top of any supply-chain issues.

Is Boris Johnson’s electoral strategy working? Here’s why it’s so hard to tell

Which group of pollsters is nearer the truth ?
What simlarities in sampling and / or weighting methods do those in each group have ?

I'd tend to believe YouGov & co more than Survation, after the ddgy ref betting, so probably group 1 / BJ winning so far
But wild swings possible before a GE - "events, dear boy"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/09/boris-johnsons-electoral-strategy-working-heres-why-its-so-hard-tell

One group of polls – Ipsos Mori, YouGov, Kantar and Opinium – show that Boris Johnson’s gamble is working:

his leadership has resulted in the defection of a group of voters who backed the Conservatives under David Cameron and Theresa May to the Liberal Democrats,
imperilling a slew of seats in the south of England, and putting his 13 Scottish MPs at risk,
but crucially the Tories have also pulled far enough ahead of Labour that they ought to, all things being equal, more than make up for losses to the SNP and Liberal Democrats with gains at Labour’s expense.
.....
But the other group of pollsters – Survation, Deltapoll and ComRes – show a very different pattern:

that the Conservatives have paid the price, in that they are losing many more votes to the Liberal Democrats,
but they have failed to pick up the prize. The party has picked up some Brexit Party voters but not enough.

As a result, they are in a position in which they look to be losing seats to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP,
but without making enough gains to offset that.

In fact, if ComRes is right, then the next election could see Jeremy Corbyn enter Downing Street on as little as 25 per cent of the vote

That article about Tory MPs fantasising about stabbing or hanging May when she was PM:

Note the excuses from at least one Tory, saying they are just frustrated

One Tory MP and public critic of May, Mark Francois, said the language was “unacceptable”
but added that that he would not tell the Conservative chief whip, how to do his job.

He said the language was born of frustration:
“The problem is that there is a lot of frustration on the backbenches at the moment, both among leavers and remainers, at the general state of play.
When you try to convey that to No 10, no one is listening.”

From April.

Nick Cohen on weasel words and trial ballooning.

Also see, 'an anonymous government source says' or 'a number 10 spokesman says'.

The media are falling for this a lot (Hello Laura and Robert. Do better).

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/richard-madeley-brexit-and-the-new-conspiracism/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Richard Madeley, Brexit and the new conspiracism

Before relying on the claim that ‘a lot of people say…’, journalists and all who say they live at least a part of our lives in the reality-based community, have a duty to say who is saying it, how many are saying it, why are they are saying it and, above all, whether what they are saying is true. The reason ought to be obvious but somehow isn’t. When people in positions of power with an audience of millions give unquestioning credence to what ‘a lot of people say’, a lot more people are likely to believe it, and say it themselves

Donald Trump has always known this. He has brought insane ideas into the mainstream of American politics by using the tactics of the sneak to reach millions of people. In September 2015, to take one of many examples, a supporter at a rally shouted that Obama was a Muslim and ‘not even an American’. He then asked Trump to get rid of Muslim ‘training camps’.

‘You know, a lot of people are saying that, and a lot of people are saying that bad things are happening out there,’ Trump replied.

Trump uses ‘a lot of people are saying that’ to fly kites. If his audience likes it, he moves forward. If it flops, he retreats and says that he didn’t believe it himself, but like Richard Madeley was merely a journalist reporting what a lot of people were saying.

The hit-and-run strategy was much employed before his 2016 election victory. In his attacks on Hillary and Bill Clinton, Trump indirectly raised questions about one of their close friends, Vince Foster, whose suicide in 1993 has entranced far-right conspiracy theorists for years. When the smear failed to stick, and Foster’s sister accused Trump of furthering his candidacy by ‘cynically, crassly and recklessly’ insinuating that her brother had been murdered, Trump pleaded innocence.

A Sun story, so don't take too seriously

However, No 10 could believe it and it could simultaneously be fiction,
because BJ / Cum live in their own world of conspiracies

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Excl: Amber Rudd preparing to stand as caretaker Prime Minister if Boris Johnson toppled by MPs, No10 believes.

But Rudd describes it as “total fiction”.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/10014789/amber-rudd-caretaker-pm-boris/amp/#click=t.co/HcLgUB8hb8

Mike Galsworthy @ mikegalsworthy
Here we have more arrant threats of violence from the government.

More people vs parliament narrative, Cummings saying he’s enjoying it, Johnson playing victim - and even a claim that if the country votes against Brexit by 66%, Brexiters will be entitled to riot

This front page is all very much in the Kwasi Kwarteng “many people think, not me, but many people” school of heavy suggestion.

It’s clear incitement - and it legitimises thugs taking to the streets... but not to protest... rather to cause criminal damage and intimidation.

This wishful thinking that Brexit falling by the wayside will cause violent riots/ civil war has been floated before.

But we didn’t see Farage’s “100,000 march” on the Supreme Court in 2017.

We didn’t see Brexit riots after March 29th date.

It’s all angry wishful thinking.

In fact the large street demonstrations that we have seen are all pro-EU.

They are very large, very well coordinated, very constant, appear all over the country

... and are peaceful.

If Brexit were to happen - especially no-deal Brexit - they would certainly increase.

If the Govt Ministers are implying that they do not care about large peaceful demonstrations, but highly value riots -

- then they send out some very unpatriotic & dangerous signals.

Not only are they inciting Brexiters to violent protest.

But they’re also inciting Remainers.

Any veiled threats of riots is a dangerous path, of course.

I do believe that Cummings/Johnson actively want violent clashes & chaos so that an intimidated nation turns to a ‘strong leader’ who offers to fix it.

And I cannot think of a more damaging, irresponsible strategy.

So, in conclusion:

No, Dom - we’re not going to get incited to violence.

We’re “cool like Fonzies” while your toddler throws his attention tantrum and your ministers poke at violence.

We are British and we will return this country’s leadership into adult hands.

"I do believe that Cummings/Johnson actively want violent clashes & chaos so that an intimidated nation turns to a ‘strong leader’ who offers to fix it."

Yep
And a strong leader would invoke Emergency Powers under the CCA, deal harshly with demonstrations opposition MPs & media, because ... that's being strong

Also, let's see if we reach 31 October without any attacks from terrorists, infrastructure hackers, drones ....
because invoking the CCA would be very useful then

This all feels more and more like House of Cards. However, truth is stranger than fiction.

Re the Rudd story.

This tweet for context.

Lewis Goodall@lewis_goodall
Boos for Blair, Bercow and most of all, apparently @Anna_Soubry, who Farage says, is the least popular figure of all amongst Leavers.

Rudd scored the lowest Cabinet minister satisfaction scores on Conservative Home.

That's what the story is about.

Whipping up feeling against Rudd and anyone she decides to work with amongst Conservative Sympathetics.

She was talking of standing as an independent if you remember.