Westminstenders: Silly Season

[RedToothBrush]

It's that time of year again when politicians seem to completely lose their marbles in order to impress the faithful. And it is beginning to feel like conference season is increasingly an exercise in religious ferver to the party rather than considering what's in the best interests of the whole country.

Labour have got off to a good start before their conference opens, by almost starting complete melt down.

The Tories have promised to break from convention and try and over shadow the others, so that's something to look forward to.

And early this week we have the supreme Court ruling which could, regardless of which direction it swings, have massive ramifications for our democracy.

Big week ahead.

Very well put on Labour and their working class support I think BigChoc. That Labour MP Red quoted the excerpt from makes his point well too, looking messy tonight.

Leave will never win, we’re not talking about leaving the single market, lots of things have been stated as fact including Corbyn won’t get into No 10

The Labour membership needs to face up to reality. It's no good whining on that the press is right wing for one example you've got to do something to work round it. That's what voters notice.

The Labour membership needs to appeal to voters not just members.

It's just being wilfully blind and deaf to think otherwise. Flogging a dead horse.

"It's just all the other dysfunctional bullshit"

Yep
The party is having a midlife crisis, which is always boring as fuck to watch for everyone else

They are fighting over everything, attacking each other all the time
which is always a car crash

Even if they had the time between punches to formulate the most brilliant policies ever, everyone is just looking at the fighting

red, imo it is also a proxy fight for which strand of Labour takes over after Corbyn steps down
So it is about deciding Labour's future direction

AND
I have a sneaking suspicion the 2 sides have chosen to have this fight now, because they regard handling Brexit

• what sort of Brexit, or do we Brexit at all, handling the aftermath -

as a poisoned chalice, especially for Labour

So they want the Tories to be broken by their own project, rather than Labour being crucified by media & public for stopping Brexit,
or for not producing the Brexit with all the promised cake-shitting unicorns

Working class votes are being lost because the traditional working class has all but disappeared. Social stratification is based on what consumer class we fall into. This includes identity politics - people buy into a brand, an image. No one reads or believes party political manifestos any more, having been duped so many times previously. All our political parties are trying to appeal to an electorate that no longer exists. The heartfelt wishes of delegates at the Labour conference, and those of the Tory conference to follow, are meaningless theatre. People will vote on a whim, or not at all - that’s why the polls are all over the place.
Oops, I may have had a couple of glasses of wine.

Labour's policy makes perfect sense to me. Someone has to try and bridge divides.

Most people did not have a strong view on EU membership before 2016. I remember having to research it all to know how to vote.

I voted remain but I just can't see what good revoke would do at this point. Won't the issue just immediately come back, and back, and back, at every next bloody election? I think I'm a bit embarrased to be part of the EU right now. Kind of feel like we should own brexit, leave as best we can, and maybe reapply in a generation's time.

It's important to avoid no deal of course -that's catastrophic.

So I want to hear more about Labours other policies, and I think so do most other people. Most people do not view Brexit as their primary concern. Climate change, housing, homelessness, health, education, etc.

I've been at work and only read headlines, but I don't really see how some disagreement of views in the labour party remotely compares with the sacking of 21 tory mps or the fact there is a currently a court case deciding if tories have broken the law??? but I guess that's the current media for you

(I do like Corbyn's policies - I don't know if that makes my opinion invalid - a lot of people seem to think so these days! I wasn't a long term labour supporter - never voted for Blair but came of voting age during the iraq war - was poltiically a bit homeless until last few years. Think there are lots of us.)

I don't know what to make of the polls - they're pretty depressing - I remember being very depressed in summer 2017 too though.

Does you good, born, cheers!
I agree

If Jeremy Corbyn was a capable leader he'd be able to deal with Tom Watson and other PLP dissenters, bring them in close, win them over, keep your enemies close, use them to appeal to a wide range of supporters.

Not hide in your room with Seumas.

So you think 1 No Dealer vs 2 Revokers would better reflect how the ref went ?

Bcf that's a misleading comment based on current polling.

This is the first Westminster voting intention poll I came across at random. The point still stands with post of the other recent polls though.

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 29% (+1)
LAB: 27% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+1)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @ComRes, 18 - 19 Sep

29% +13% = 42
27% + 21% = 48
And no one has counted the Greens.

Polling at 13% is not insignificant. The Brexit Party policy is relevant here, yet you've automatically just ignored it.

Why?

Here's another

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (-)
LAB: 22% (-3)
LDEM: 17% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 4% (-)
via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 13 Sep

37 + 12 = 49
22 + 17 = 39

And another:

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 23% (+3)
BREX: 10% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-2)
via @IpsosMORI
Chgs. w/ July

33 + 10 = 43
24 + 23 = 47

And here's YouGov to make up a quartet

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 32% (-)
LDEM: 23% (+4)
LAB: 21% (-2)
BREX: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-3)
via @YouGov

32 + 14 = 46
23 + 21 = 44

So I'm sorry, I'm not seeing your logic of why you think if Labour had gone pro remain, remain would have been over represented by parties.

As it goes, I do think being pro ref is a legitimate policy decision. What I'm less impressed at is the antics that went on to ensure that, and the extremely thin veneer of internal party democracy on display.

The wc is not as large as it was - hence why the mc influx into Labour - but it is still there

Millions of people still belong to social classes E, D, C2
but they don't post so often on MN

Mumsnet is VERY mc / southern and not at all like the people I meet in my day to day life (and I am mc)

Wasn't there a poster on this thread who said earning 100K did not make you rich!!

It's a great thread though, I've learned so much!

red I suppose it's because I'm not sure if BXP will actually stand in many seats

• some of their supposed candidates look a right shower

and I don't yet regard them as a proper party - not having any MPs

If the Tories go for No Deal, BXP support would drop, possibly so Farage ends up with 0-2 seats again
So he could make a face-saving gesture and not campaign in seats where Tories could otherwise win

However, I do wonder if Labour would rather not win this GE

.... and maybe some Tories would rather not either, so they can blame Labour for the following disaster

Perhaps people fall in to social classes E, D, C2. But perhaps they don’t realise they do, or behave (and vote) as though they do.

squid My dad's side of the family is wc NE No Dealer, which is like another world

and I don't yet regard them as a proper party - not having any MPs

MEPs are pointless then? Best abolish the EU completely then.

I get what you are driving at, but on this one I think your logic is being driven by your own views on this rather than being an argument that has a point about over representation if Labour had gone remain.

I think it's just as easy to argue that remain is under represented, if you so wished, especially if you throw in the Greens.

It’s not about over representation by giving soft leavers an option to vote for that isn’t no deal or remain imo

Those working class voters have also been Labour voters “forever” if you know what I mean, before Tony Blair, before Iraq, before “New Labour” was a thing and those people think that should count for something, and I think they are right.

While there are fewer of those people now, there are still plenty. Longevity counts for a lot of people, and those people will have thought under Corbyn than their party was coming “back” to their way of thinking. Funny that, elect a socialist leader of the Labour Party and it will start pursuing socialist policies.

The perception that “their” party has been basically hijacked by centrists recently and that the pushback against Corbyn is from those same centrists is a hard one to dismiss.

Centrism unquestionably proved the way to electoral success in the 1990s for Labour. The tragic loss of John Smith in 1994 deprives us of any real world evidence that this centrism was the only route to success (I suspect not) but we’ll never know now.

The makeup of the Labour Party membership has undergone big changes since then though, more diverse, probably younger overall, but those voters are still there in numbers.

All parties, I think, are split on whether to do what their members want or to offer what will appeal to the people who “could” vote for them as well as those who “will” do. I think any party that is serious about governing has to prioritise the latter.

Ok that’s it I just saw Louise’s point, what the fuck have you people done to me

BXP is a force in EP elections, like UKIP was - and not many voters stayed with UKIP in GEs

I can't think of any other party in Europe that only has a (large) presence in the EP, not in its own country's parliament
BXP is very odd

I suppose I just tend to look at the established parties for Westminster, since they have MPs and seem 20%+

You're right though:
BXP could be very important in the next GE

I also fear that a Revoke would not be the end of Brexit,
but merely the impetus for a Tory-Brexit coalition winning the following GE and promptly Leaving with No Deal.

I don't know which course of action would best prevent the far right & hard right holding power for a long time
All options look fraught with danger

Myself, DH and our friends were all born WC and proud of it.

We would probably not be considered that now. I seem to be the type that is hated all over.

Not posh enough to be Tory (and I actually care about people) but not poor enough to be WC.

Not that I think all WC is poor!!

I’d have to be heavily sedated or medicated to agree with Bear

there must be something in the water?!

No, I think the answer is more simple than that and it’s being demonstrated on this and other Brexit threads more and more lately.

We’re all so entrenched in our views, whatever they maybe, we’re struggling to listen to anything that differs from them.

And, because there are so many permutations in this, there’s not actually much totally common ground.