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Brexit

Westminstenders: Constitutional History

959 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/09/2019 14:57

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

OP posts:
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Peregrina · 19/09/2019 22:36

People seem to think that we have never had a say in the EU. We did until Cameron started to actively disengage in 2010. Rees-Mogg gave the game away when he said that the WA would lead us to becoming a vassal state. This implied that we weren't now.

Jason118 · 19/09/2019 22:37

@mathanxiety good point and to a certain extent the same can be said about Corbyn and the Labour Party

LouiseCollins28 · 19/09/2019 22:45

Mathanxiety is this a question I should not ask then?

To answer your last question, since I spend the vast majority of my “media consuming time” reading sources that don’t take that “anti” line, I think it is unlikely that I have fallen victim to it as yo suggest.

2 further things. The print media in this country, and and in any other with a free press are primarily concerned to sell copy and (now) to generate “clicks” they all have biases.

I now see the EUs interests as largely distinct from Britain’s interests. Please understand I would not make that same judgement about EU Member States or their governments.

Peregrina · 19/09/2019 22:52

I now see the EUs interests as largely distinct from Britain’s interests.

Could you tell us why?

For me things like not having been to war with our neighbours for more than 70 years, and having co-operative trading relationships with them are very much the same interests. It's also more to our benefit to have FoM - I am thinking here of the benefits to scientific research, which was an area I worked in.

Personally I can think of precious few interests in becoming a vassal state of the USA, and I think the idea of reforging links with the White Commonwealth, given the distances involved is a non-starter.

Apileofballyhoo · 19/09/2019 22:53

I now see the EUs interests as largely distinct from Britain’s interests.

Louise, can I ask if you once saw the EU's interests and Britain's as having more in common?

And did you mean Britain as distinct from the United Kingdom?

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2019 22:54

Well indeed, mathanxiety (although the US may disagree that the giving up of the British Empire started with Ireland...).

The UK deserves little credit for the manner in which we gave up our Empire. Pretty much all we can claim is that some other imperial powers did it worse! We gave up some colonies without a fight... but only after we'd lost a number of fights elsewhere and learnt the hard way it was a fruitless exercise.

My observation was that we'd done a good job with our transformation to a post-imperial nation. It took a while for reality to overcome our delusions of enduring grandeur, but I thought we'd managed it – and thus avoided the fate of many decayed powers.

I was wrong.

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2019 23:00

Listening to the more tub-thumping anti-EU comments, harking back to the Good Ol' Empire Days, I keep being reminded of the adage:
"When you're used to privilege, equality feels like oppression."

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2019 23:08

I'm now hearing Brexiteer rhetoric in the voice of John Cleese.Grin

"Don't. Mention. The Empire."

LouiseCollins28 · 19/09/2019 23:09

Sorry Ballyhoo I was getting bit lazy with the Britiain/United Kingdom terminology. It’s late.

Your question probably deserves a better answer than I can give but I’ll have a stab at it tomorrow.

colouringinpro · 19/09/2019 23:13

late pmk

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:25

"Just watched the Cameron programme on the BBC and the story is remarkably similar, no movement. His “renegotiation” pre-referendum was deeply flawed and resulted an almost complete failure."

Cameron was also demanding things the EU could not possibly grant without destroying itself
he wanted all the privileges, but without FOM or ECJ
and still retaining the right of the UK to vote on laws that others sshould obey.

His whole negotiations were ludicrous

He and the Tory party - and nearly all of Westminster - are appallingly ignorant of EU fundamentals, which is why they have had so little success.

The Tory demands both before and after the ref were basically demands for the EU to end itself
so they were never going to get significant concessions

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:31

The UK has also completely misunderstood who has the power in these negotiations

The govt should have regarded it as like negotiating with the USA, because the EU is a comparable economic superpower

A few senior civil servants tried to warn the govt, but they were forced out

Ivan Richards:

"The EU, like the US or China, plays hardball in negotiations.
Because it has the weight to.

That is, after all, rather the idea of trade blocs.
We knew that when we joined one."

mathanxiety · 19/09/2019 23:34

Nonetheless, EU membership does constrain what government's can do.

So does Parliament.

So do the courts.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:36

The Times on the ignorance Cameron's memoirs revealed:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/britain-s-leaders-did-not-understand-the-value-of-eu-rules-and-still-don-t-3vdjkz90t

"What makes this extract extraordinary is that it confirms that six years after he [Cameron] became prime minister
and just weeks before he gambled Britain’s membership of the EU in a referendum, he didn’t understand how it works.

Indeed, it appears he still hasn’t grasped that the supremacy of EU law in the areas over which the EU has competence is not a bug but the essential feature without which it couldn’t work."
....
"When it is clear that three prime ministers in succession have reached the highest office
with a flawed understanding of how the basic framework underpinning a G7 country’s most important commercial and security relationships works

* it is clear something has gone profoundly awry in Britain’s political system."*

mathanxiety · 19/09/2019 23:38

Posting this again for you LouiseCollins, based on the post 'EU membership does constrain what government's can do.'

It's called "What has the ECHR ever done for us?"

Watch it all the way through for the kicker.

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:41

"EU membership does constrain what government's can do."

So does UN membership
So does WTO membership
So does ECHR membership
So does NATO membership
.....
So would an FTA with the USA, negotiated as a single country instead of as a trade bloc

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:46

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Excl: Rebel MPs expelled by Boris Johnson say they have new legal advice that will force a U-turn to allow them to stand for election as Tories again

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9964850/brexit-rebels-stand-conservatives/amp/#click=t.co/OmrSk513YF" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/9964850/brexit-rebels-stand-conservatives/amp/#click=t.co/OmrSk513YF

At least five planning an appeal, but a larger number have decided not to lodge one, insisting it’s for the PM to recant and ask them back.
They include @RoryStewartUK , @NSoames and @margotjamess_mp

@RoryStewartUK tells me:
"I’m not sure many would want a job back if they had to force people to take you.

It would feel like trying to force a partner to stay with you who had already said they didn’t want you.
You’d have to believe they had completely changed their mind".

BigChocFrenzy · 19/09/2019 23:49

So we have reverted to over 2 years ago

Jennifer Rankin@JenniferMerode

Three British 'non-papers' have been sent to Michel Barnier's team: food-safety, animal and plant health (SPS), customs + manufactured goods.

EU diplomats not optimistic about breakthrough that has eluded everyone for two years.

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

No. Hear same.

Per source these papers are “basically back to summer of 2017”

Regular readers will recall U.K. papers on customs and Max Fax that were dismissed as “wishful thinking” by EU.

Peregrina · 19/09/2019 23:53

The ECHR isn't the EU though, although now membership of the EU does require it.

Sadly this seemed to be something that Theresa May got mixed up with. With Johnson, who knows what he thinks, if he thinks at all.

I am profoundly saddened that people don't know the history; don't seem to realise how sickened people were liberating the concentration camps for example, that they knew we had to do better in future and that this was one result.

mathanxiety · 20/09/2019 00:10

Just to add though, that the "backstop" wasn't a known "problem" 2 years ago. It has been a concrete, problem since January this year, i.e. when the first vote didn't pass. Still plenty of time to have either secured the votes or developed a much better worked up alternative, but not 2 years.
LouiseCollins

The backstop was agreed to by Theresa May in late 2018, with much negotiation predating the agreement. Before the EU and UK sat down to discuss the backstop the Irish government had discussed the implications of Brexit as they related to a new EU border with the UK on the island of Ireland, and had very ably and completely publicly brought the matter to the notice of the EU, beginning as soon as the referendum results were counted.

The question of the new EU border with the UK had been known and discussed since before the referendum therefore. The fact that it only dawned on UK politicians that it was a problem in January of 2019 speaks volumes about British incompetence and a regrettable tendency to indulge in fantasy, not about the problem itself.

www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-14/how-ireland-outmaneuvered-britain-on-brexit
'Irish diplomats set the terms of the Brexit talks long before the British caught on. Here’s how they pulled it off.'

Basically, what they did is called 'keeping your eyes on the ball'.

By the time referendum result came in, Kenny and his team had already honed a message for their European allies: for you, this might be about market access, but for us, it’s about peace.

A second unspoken factor was also at play in Brussels.

Northern Ireland was a place where the “fantasies” of the Brexit camp clashed with reality, according to a former adviser. For those seeking to illustrate the difficulties inherent in the wider Brexit project, it was the perfect vehicle.

The Irish found they were pushing at an open door.

Though details of the conflict were fading, many EU leaders still recalled the atrocities—especially when reminded by the Irish diplomats—and fears of a return to violence were real. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, was particularly receptive—he’d worked on the peace process as an EU commissioner almost 20 years ago.

The British, who’d barely considered the issue, seemed unprepared. To compound their problems, Cameron had ordered his officials not to plan for a possible departure before the referendum to avoid handing arguments to the Leave campaign.

By the time Theresa May took office in July 2016, the Irish had already started framing the border issue and the EU was determined it wouldn’t allow anything to jeopardize the peace.

When May traveled to Dublin six months later, Kenny pressed home his advantage, wringing a pledge from May to avoid a return to the “borders of the past.”

The Irish suspected that May still didn’t realize the significance of the concession she had just made.

In April 2017, the Commission made the Irish border one of three key issues that needed “sufficient progress” before it would discuss its future trading relationship with the U.K.

The British couldn’t believe what was happening, said one Irish official involved. They had taken their eye off the ball.

By the time Varadkar succeeded Kenny that June, the template was set even though the backdrop had shifted dramatically.

In a surprise U.K. election, Tory losses cost May her majority and, in a cruel twist, left her dependent on Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party.

In U.K. politics, no one cares about the details of British control in Northern Ireland quite like the territory’s unionist parties. While the DUP is pro-Brexit, remaining an integral part of the U.K. is its raison d’etre and it opposes anything that suggests separation.

The narrative toughened in the U.K., inevitably triggering a reaction in Dublin. Some on the Irish side felt the British were just paying lip service to the importance of keeping the border open.

One phrase in particular stuck in their throats. May and her ministers stuck to the line that they were aiming to keep the border as “frictionless as possible.”

The Irish heard that as: we’ll do our best for you, but…

It wasn’t enough. Ireland and the EU demanded written guarantees that the border wouldn’t return. In December 2017, May made that commitment.

Everything flowed from that point.

Scrambling for a fallback plan to honor her promises even if trade negotiations falter, May settled on a compromise that pleases almost none of domestic factions.

She argues that she secured important concessions. But Brexiteers hate it because ties to the EU customs union limit their freedom to do trade deals. The DUP rejects it because it may create internal barriers in the U.K.

mathanxiety · 20/09/2019 00:11

The ECHR isn't the EU though...

No, but it's one more thing that places constraints on a government.

And the irony is that the UK is an architect of it.

tobee · 20/09/2019 00:13

Wondering what people make of this interview with Juncker from Sky News

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/jean-claude-juncker-we-can-have-a-deal-and-brexit-will-happen-11814207

I'm confused!

mathanxiety · 20/09/2019 00:15

“It is human to err, it is divine to forgive & the Prime Minister is very close to being divine I think"

The pedant in me is itching to correct that grammatical horror in red.

tobee · 20/09/2019 00:18

I see versions of that Juncker interview or on (certain) front pages.

Apileofballyhoo · 20/09/2019 00:19

Thanks, Louise. It's bloody hard to keep to the right terminology and spellings of names, esp all these new words I'm learning. Maybe I should go and post on the what has Brexit ever done for you thread and say it has improved my vocabulary!

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