Westminstenders: Constitutional History

[RedToothBrush]

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1174638055229181953

Godawful threatening speech from DexEU's Barclay that will just make things worse

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

So ‪**@SteveBarclay**‬ is speaking in Madrid today on ‪#Brexit‬

The speech is confrontational, laden with threats - to both Europe and the Commission

• which is interesting indicator perhaps of where talks are?

It is a very aggressive text 🤔

• some extracts and thoughts 1/thread

..... There are several reasons why this is frankly silly.

1. The 'no deal' threat doesn't work It can't be 'manageable' for UK and SO awful for EU they'll put border in Ireland/throw Ireland under bus etc. Threats don't work - especially when Benn Act means extension there anyway/12

Second - even the true believers in Alternative Arrangements have told the EU they won't be ready (the computers, the rifid chips and the drones) for THREE YEARS.
The transition only last 14 months.
So even on UK's own terms it wont be ready by 2020 /13

So the UK government knows this, but still wants the EU and Irish govt to plough on, take a chance,
'trust us' (per Johnson letter of Aug 19th)
and just see what happens - per Johnson 'look at what commitments' we might give. /14
....
As I've said before, if the choice is a 'no deal'

• and an abrupt trade border that the Brits bring about -

and acquiescing in a Border at the end of 2020, that's a non-choice for a Taoiseach.

As it happens I'm writing this in Dublin - hard to find anyone who says otherwise./16

What about the rest of the speech...
its bascilly a long of threats - to Spanish fishermen, veg growers and tour operators /18

IMAGINE how a Spanish minister would go down in London dishing out threats in this manner? 🤔

I asssume ‪**@SteveBarclay**‬ reckons its sounds tough...rather than just shrill, tin-eared or desperate. /19

And now for the grand finale.
Barekunckle Steve threatens Ireland with a medicine shortage in the event of a 'no deal'!

What next?
We gonna starve the Irish out? 🤔

(FWIW a lot of Northern Irish medicines come via landbridge, which means they'll suffer too, but let's skip that.) 20

In summary?
I cannot for the life of me think WHY UK govt thinks threats will work for getting a deal.

Unless this is just about preparing for a general election;

since they know they're snookered in Parliament and won't risk the political pivot needed to do such a deal? ENDS

On Monday Lord Keen, who was representing the government, told the supreme court that if it found against the government, Boris Johnson would “take all necessary steps to comply with any declaration made by the court”. ... But it has now emerged that, even if he loses, Johnson does not want to recall parliament before 14 October – the day it is due to come back.

I'm no lawyer, but is that not "lying to the court ?".

I hope the SC has the remit to ask Lord Keen to clarify any remarks so made in court before they rule.

www.supremecourt.uk/docs/written-case-for-sir-john-major.pdf

...Nice fruit & veg you've got there. What a shame if it all went to waste.....

The values of the protection racketeer.

Difficult to tell if Barclay actually beleives all this "They need us more than we need them" guff, and how much he's grandstanding for the Hiel and the Excess.

Nonetheless, EU membership does constrain what government's can do.

So do International Laws. Until recently we have mostly thought they were a good thing and gone along with them. If we didn't like them, there were and are various bodies that we can make representations to, to say why not.

Again though, if we had been fully willing to play our part, we could have put the case for altering EU laws which we didn't feel were effective. My DB can quote one which isn't particularly advantageous to the UK, which is to do with transport which was his field of work. Various industry bodies made representations to our Government saying how or why they thought it didn't work as written or could have been improved. What happened? Our Government decided that they couldn't be bothered to put the case. This relates to Cameron deliberately withdrawing from active participation.

So yes, they can and do constrain what we do, but if we can't be bothered to make our case, it makes the whinging look hollow. Some EU laws, of course, we chose to gold plate and then have a whinge about.

Barclay:
“Great political leaders have always respected the need to take risks. Indeed it was General de Gaulle who said a true statesman is one who is willing to take risks.

“Yet a refusal by the commission to accept any risk would be a failure of statecraft, and put at risk the future relationship of the UK and the EU because of a lack of flexibility, creativity and indeed pragmatism. Leadership requires more than remaining within a safety net.”

No chance that the EU would take a risk - and a damn big risk - with the SM, on which the prosperity of all its memebrs depend
just to help a political party in a soon to be non-member that has dug a deep hole for itself

That's like countries sticking a good chunk of their national GDP on a 3-legged Derby outsider

"EU membership does constrain what government's can do."

WTO membership does
UN membership does
Every trade deal with another country does - wait until you see what the US demands / will get in any FTA

Fans of plain speaking (up to a degree) should relish John Majors submission - some very cogent points succinctly made.

OMG.

I NEVER listen to R2. Today in the car I fancied a break from R4. I ended up finding R2 and Cameron is on there again now- trying justifying austerity.

Re: Mrs Thatcher and the Single Market, this was a good lunchtime read. Text of the speech opening the single market campaign in 1988.

www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107219

“The EU membership does constrain what governments can do”.

So does the House of Commons.

Quite frankly so does reality.

It isn’t the EUs fault Boris can’t deliver the unicorn he promised.

No government is completely unconstrained

If we were seen as an equal member of a mutually supportive bloc, the rest of the post would have merit. We aren't and weren't so it doesn't. We are a cash cow for the EU and pretty much nothing more.

Louise, thank you, that's illuminating. I hadn't understood that some Leavers held that belief (I appreciate you can't speak for all).

OMG Just re-read that and it could sound snide.

Sorry, Louise, wasn't meant to be. I genuinely appreciate learning where people are coming from.

Have you heard Palace Displeasure at Cameron's Queen comments.

I honestly don't know whether to laugh or cry at the BBC splashing this as breaking news!

Hi Perking No worries, I took it in a positive way in the first place

Whoops
www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/19/saga-travel-firm-advertises-cruise-exclusively-for-brits

If the prorogation issue is justiciable and the case against the government is successful - but BJohnson does nothing (does not recall Parliament) and faces no punishment (either for the unlawful prorogation or for not recalling Parliament), then what is the point in the courts supposedly having the power to make decisions on these issues? Why would any future government take the courts seriously? Feels like the beginnings of a dictatorship.

Bloody hell - a cruise for over 50s Brits only. You'd have to pay me a lot of money to get me to go on that. And I'm part of the target audience.

When will they start advertising cruises for whites only, I wonder?

That's what Fordham (QC for the Counsel General of Wales) finished with pamper - that if it was only justiciable "in principle" but there was no real remedy, then what was the point it was just empty words

It was (imho ) a very strong finish to his submission.

I think the govt would argue that the SC is looking at THIS prorogation. AND the SC would have to issue an order for him the reconvene Parliament, with details. The govt response could be "okay, it was wrong, soz." And that's it.

Meanwhile, a clear demonstration of the EUs influence worldwide ... hope Brexiteers are strapped in for a 20 year long haul, if this deal is anything to go by ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49753210

MPs in Austria have dealt a blow to the EU's landmark trade deal with South America's economic bloc, by demanding a government veto on the deal.

The draft free trade agreement took 20 years to complete and the EU has described it as its biggest so far.

(contd)

I've got it.

Lord Pannick reminds me of Norris Cole from Corrie. Its been driving me mad all week.

Curious situation, now I'm really not sure how to react to the news of the EU-Mercosur deal being blocked by Austrian MPs.

On the one hand, its fantastic to see that the MPs in a national Parliament can stop the EU acting in ways they don't wish it to.

On the other hand, all the work done being lost and all those trade expansion opportunities denied is sad.

Oddly, it doesn't seem that the objection has much to do with the actual content of the proposed agreement. I cannot escape the feeling that, whatever the advertised nature of the dispute, this more about registering an objection about who currently governs Brazil than anything else.

In the interests of consistency, I guess I must applaud the Vienna Parliament for its action.

Thank you @Belindabelle . It was bugging me too.