Westminstenders: Constitutional History

[RedToothBrush]

The Supreme Court case continues
(ruling possible Friday but likely Monday)

The new NI proposal is bollocks and Johnson didn't get why until it was discussed in Europe.

There was a press conference in Luxembourg which looks good for Johnson.

Johnsons approval ratings are up.

And we are making no obvious progress to anything but no deal...

I personally think that the EU engaging with everyone from Farage, Rees-Mogg, Corbyn, Umunna, Swinson etc as well as Johnson is a sign of genuine good faith and willingness to have a good relationship with the UK regardless of how this all turns out.

It's actually a killer strategy (no wonder it's being dissed in the UK). None of those people listed could ever be seen talking to each other, so by talking to the all, the EU will have a very detailed map of UK politics fault lines. Meaning they would know exactly where to apply minimum pressure for maximum effect. And you can't blame the EU for the UKs fucked up political system. We did that all by ourselves.

Keen students of history (i.e. those that go beyond the chapter titles) might recognise the strategy of talking to all sides in a treaty negotiation as something Britain developed to a fine art in the days of Empire. But I'm guessing Brexiteers won't see imitation as any sign of flattery ?

TL;DR - don't want other nations to take advantage of your shit domestic politics ? Don't have shit domestic politics ....

I was just going to post that lonelyplanet.

It seems an extraordinary turn-around/ admission of failure/ change in oft-stated promises.

Stephen Barclay said the UK should be given another year to find a new policy for the Irish border.
"We are told the UK must provide legally operative text by the 31st October," the cabinet minister said in a speech in Madrid.
"Yet the alternative to the backstop is not necessary until the end of the Implementation Period in December 2020.
"And this will be shaped by the future relationship – which is still to be determined.
"In short why risk crystallising an undesirable result this November, when both sides can work together – until December 2020.

If we are actually going to do this self-destructive thing, we need a long extension (and a change in government.)

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deadline-irish-backstop-no-deal-stephen-barclay-october-a9111756.html

Indeed.

I used to think the thing the UK should congratulate itself on was its transition from head of the largest empire the world had ever seen, to equal member of a powerful, mutually supportive bloc.

We could have just fallen by the wayside as a decayed, irrelevant ex-imperial power which had lost its tributary states. Instead we'd got over ourselves, been pragmatic, re-engineered ourselves to be a modern nation, and settled to a realistic, smaller but still valuable place in the world.

Or so I thought.

Now our sepia-tinted mythos of greatness has been used against us, by ourselves and by outsiders who will gain by our decline.

By constantly harking back to our glory days – while glossing over the embarrassing fact we were dependent on our Empire – we've puffed ourselves out with hot air and fooled ourselves we really are that big and can once again make it alone.

Wrong. The UK never had to stand alone; we could always answer "You and whose army?!" with, "Erm, look behind you..." at India, Australia, Canada, large swathes of Africa, the Middle East... And it was as true economically as it was militarily.

Now. Well. We really will be alone. And having lost both our families, we're busy pissing off our friends.

I'm not impressed with us.

I think Barnier talking to all parties is more a case of necessity:

Barnier is required to talk to MEPs,
which in the case of the UK is mostly Farage's BXP, but also includes more Labour than Tory

Also, Brexit is a long process, likely to last for decades,
so the EU must keep all main UK parties inormed, because they are potential future governing parties, or at least main Opposition parties

However, if negotiations has proceeded smoothly, then I suspect Barnier wouldn't have held quite so many talks
He is probably desperately trying to give more UK politicans a reality check on what is possible

I think Barnier talking to all parties is more a case of necessity:

Which (happily ) happens to coincide with the wider necessity of the EU being transparent as a whole (because what else can you be with 28 countries ?).

I'm sure a recent poster will confirm I am being childish, but it's nice that runs completely counter to the SOP of needless secrecy the UK prefers.

Insofar as the credit (most of the time) that should accrue to Britain for the manner in which she gave up her "empire" I agree.

Sadly on the rest, while I recognise the sadness, I cannot agree. If we were seen as an equal member of a mutually supportive bloc, the rest of the post would have merit. We aren't and weren't so it doesn't. We are a cash cow for the EU and pretty much nothing more.

I have a good feeling about this Supreme Court business. Managed to listen in on most of this morning.
John Major's lawyer pretty well saying Johnson misled everyone and Irish and Welsh input quite strong I think.

Louise - do you think there is possibly a disconnect between how we are actually seen in Europe and how the press in the UK like to report we are seen in Europe?

As very few decisions of the EU are known about directly (without the press intervening) it is a perfect opportunity for spins and skewing to come in to create your view that the UK is a cash cow.

For work over the years, I've read a lot of EU legislation and guidance notes etc and actually, the UK is an equal party. It suggests a lot of legislation, it refined how that legislation should be taken forward and in many ways it has been an active and enthusiastic participant.

Unfortunately, that doesn't suit the press narrative (or the wish for the government to have a scapegoat) which in turn fuels the separation - e.g by voting a huge number of UKIP and latterly BXP MEPs.

Are you suggesting that people are wrong to feel threatened by the increase in the EUs power?

I would suggest that, yes! People who feel threatened by the EU are looking at it as ‘other’, so of course they don’t like it. If, however, you look at it from the perspective of a member, with a veto and lots of extra opt-outs and privileges that we acquired by being difficult, then surely it’s a good thing to be in the club? WE are the EU (or at least part of it), so if it increases in power, so do we. And that’s what people voted to give up, because ‘sovereignty’ and a billion other myths that have been thoroughly discredited

If we were seen as an equal member of a mutually supportive bloc, the rest of the post would have merit. We aren't and weren't so it doesn't. We are a cash cow for the EU and pretty much nothing more.

Sorry, what? We're just 'a cash cow for the EU'? Could you substantiate this comment please?

which in the case of the UK is mostly Farage's BXP,

No, it's not. It's also 17 LibDems and 1 Alliance from NI. Sinn Fein MEPs from NI, although I don't know how many without looking it up and SNP MEPs and again I don't know without looking it up, but it added up to the same number that Farage had.

From BBC Live feed

PM floats possibility parliament could remain suspended until 14 October even if government loses case
On Monday Lord Keen, who was representing the government, told the supreme court that if it found against the government, Boris Johnson would “take all necessary steps to comply with any declaration made by the court”.

But it has now emerged that, even if he loses, Johnson does not want to recall parliament before 14 October – the day it is due to come back.

According to the government’s remedy document published by the lawyer Jolyon Maugham (see 12.04pm), the government is saying that, if the court declares prorogation unlawful, it cannot at this point say what it will do without knowing what the court will advise.

It says that, if the court just says prorogation was unlawful, it could be open to Johnson to request another prorogation, lawfully, for the same period of time.

The document says the court could also require Johnson to request a recall of parliament from the Queen. But the document also says this would have “very serious practical consequences” because the timing of the Queen’s speech would have to be brought forward. “Extensive arrangements” have to be made, it says, implying that this would be undesirable.

We aren't and weren't so it doesn't. We are a cash cow for the EU and pretty much nothing more.

That is your opinion, which others may or may not agree with. And what people believe is so, doesn't actually make it so. A person might believe that the moon is made of green cheese, but all the evidence tells us that it's not.

"agree. If we were seen as an equal member of a mutually supportive bloc"

We were
The UK was a major power within the EU, enough so that it was only on the losing side in 2% of decisions
(until Cameron took office and used obstruction of normal business as a negotiating tactic / sop to his rightwing)

e.g. The UK under MrsT was the architect of the SM.
However, the UK economy adapted to the frictionless trade that the Tories then demanded - and is now so dependent that any Brexit will only be worse economically than Remain.

e.g. The UK brought the East European countries early into the EU, before they were ready politically or economically; This hurry was as the USA wanted, but against the wishes of most other members
It has badly backfired now and is mostly why we are in the mess.

e.g. the UK was the prime instigator of sanctions against Russia, which hurts German farmers & other businesses

e.g. the UK has been supported many times in disputes with non-EU countries, including Russia

The problem is that the UK wanted to be #1 and to actually run the EU

• as many Leavers erroneously thinks Germany does

Of course, now we are leaving we not being treated in negotiations as a member, but as a soon to be non-member

That's necessitated by both WTO / MFN rules and EU treaties

Just catching up on today's thread. Particularly struck by @Myriade 2 comments at 8.15 and very much in agreement.

And @kingsassassin's last comment.

But it should be illegal to post photos like that @TokyoSushi !

The UK isn't the highest per capita contributer to the budget

The increase in trade and tax receipts from it are far more than our net contributions
It's like paying for a market stall, in order to sell your goods
You can sell out of your car boot on your own drive, but if you have a lot of goods then you won't get nearly as many punters or make as much money

Contributions are used to run the apparatus of the SM - frictionless trade within the EU requires a lot of internal checks and processes,
The EU agencies bring economies of scale, but also take money to run

What Leavers really seem to resent is that the richer members to some extent financially support the poorer, investing to make them more prosperous
That is fundamental to the EU and won't change
Like the better off in the UK pay more taxes to support the less well off, as well as to actually run the country, pay for essential services etc

kingsassassin I think there is definitely something in that argument, absolutely.

I think politicians have sought to park the blame for things on the EU when in some instances they aren't to blame. Nonetheless, EU membership does constrain what government's can do. Some look upon those constraints as a source of comfort, others do not.

On the media, I really, really don't think the EU helps itself a lot of the time. I completely acknowledge that UK print media in particular may have a majority with a particular "anti" line to stick to buy why must the EU be so keen to acquire more and more power?

My view is that every major EU treaty change that has occurred in my adult lifetime has seen the EU accrue more powers for itself at the expense of national parliaments.

My argument on this is twofold First, the EU is reaching the point where it is accruing so much power it is beginning to behave like a state in itself and second where does this power come from?

If ones take the Tony Benn view (as I do), that the powers exercised by Parliament are merely "loaned" to them by the electorate and should be "handed back undiminished" that progressive accrual of power should be impossible and should have been resisted at every stage. It hasn't been, that is Parliament's fault, and the EU's too.

Somebody posted a table on Brexit Arms thread indicating the % of contribution income that each EU member state receives and we are (according to that, source unknown I concede) bottom in % terms by a distance!

The thing is we will still be paying into the EU we will just be on ‘pay as you go’ basis with businesses and therefore consumers footing the bill.

Once it is all rotted up including all the additional costs businesses will have to stump up I wonder if we will be any better off financially ??

British Steel where whacked with a £100m EU carbon bill what other taxes tariffs and expenses nobody has considered are going to rear their head in the next 12 months.

Like the better off in the UK pay more taxes to support the less well off, as well as to actually run the country, pay for essential services etc.

That is now BigChoc, but a lot of wealthy people don't see why they should do so!

Basil It's the hit to 45% of our trade that is the real hammer
It will be multiple times our EU contributions

Her Maj is upset at Mr Cameron

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49756756

The better off in the UK generally pay in more than they get out

Over half the population are "net takers" over their lifetime

However, if we all only paid in what we get out, most - not all - people would think that unfair
More to the point: the country would collapse, so everyone would be worse off
(yes, I know the better off can go abroad, but not the whole better off 35% or whatever)

Just add it to the bill BCF add it to the bill....

Our NL supplier has calculated it going to cost an extra 7€ to each of their packages to UK and that was in the case of a deal...

Her Maj is upset at Mr Cameron
There goes his honours