Brexit predictions

[TheMShip]

I made this prediction on the most recent Westminstenders thread, and @Peregrina suggested we needed a thread solely for predictions. So here's mine:

I'm going to put my prediction hat on and say there'll be a vote of no confidence immediately on return in October, amended (allowed by Speaker Bercow) to say the house has confidence in Ken Clarke. He will implement the Benn act and ask for an extension. The EU will refuse 3 months and offer 2 years. Parliament will accept and then have a fixed term parliament act vote (2/3 majority needed) for a general election, which will happen in Nov/Dec.

I think BJ will when parlimanet comes back try pushing through a modified Theresa May style agreement - perhaps with Northern Ireland as part of a custom union with EU - as DUP may be moving on their stance and EU liked the idea already.

If he gets it through - and with all the scary stuff about No deal he might he'll want an election soon after and if he doesn't he can blame parliament and may be still go for GE hoping for the best.

I don't think it clear what result a GE would produce in any situation.

I also think there a high risk of lots going wrong - including getting No deal and crashing out accidentally - though EU might step in and offer longer or not.

Slightly over a quarter of the population voted to leave.

www.indy100.com/article/brexit-leave-remain-52-48-per-cent-voter-turnout-electoral-register-charts-7399226

including those EU citizens from the E27 who were going to be directly affected - although Commonwealth citizens were allowed to vote

And excluding Britons in Europe.

I still find it astonishing - and profoundly undemocratic - that an Australian citizen on a working holiday in the U.K. could vote in the referendum, but I as a British citizen directly affected by Brexit (living in the EU) was disenfranchised.

UK will reject any delay offer, PM to tell Juncker

I have seen some analysis that suggests a lot of what BJ is doing is trying to bring some kind of resolution and not have it drag on any longer.

I suspect that's more about party than country - as trade deals would take years and we'd be in a weak position especially with no deal.

Funny headline I linked to has changed - it's now Johnson's 'cautious' optimism a head of Juncker talks article is much the same with some tweaks.

I do think they are trying for a deal I still not sure they'll get it through parliament.

No idea what will happen in the immediate future but in the fullness of time, in the aftermath of Brexit, my predictions are:

There will be a written constitution for the UK since gentlemen's agreements don't work in the absence of gentlemen.

For the result of a referendum to trigger a change, a significant majority in favour of that change will be required, and the sort of questions posed to the electorate will be more cautiously chosen.

I think we might also see a Law passed to stop a PM proroguing Parliament on a whim. Also some Law as to how PMs are chosen - it can't be right that 100,000 or so members of a political party get the say. It was better when MPs only chose the PM - at least all of those people had been elected as representatives.

Otherwise, I think Ireland will reunite and Scotland will become Independent - in what order, I don't know.

In the very long term ....
Electoral and constitutional reform
over what is left of the country

A GE will be called, JC will get in and if we have crashed out, ask to rejoin and adopt the Euro 👍👍

Everything will then be hunky dory 😳

People have lost faith in the political system so why bother voting when the MPs say one thing but do the opposite oh and argue like children

We will deserve everything we get as a result 😳😳

No deal.
I'm in the Republic of Ireland. I haven't met one person here yet who really wants a united Ireland.

Northern Ireland will unite with Ireland and this will happen before Scottish Independence, which is tricky. Northern Ireland will be gone in two years.

England and Wales will all that will be left after five years from now, with a hard Scottish border, which may well include counties of England.

The North West will be regenerated due to Ports and canals.

So two powerhouses, the North West and the South East. England and Wales may well reapply to join the EU.

The NHS will no longer be free at point of entry. Every person will be obliged to join a national health service scheme, this includes babies and children.

Rosie the DUP will split, with hard core and those who are more aligned to keeping the GFA, which Ireland voted for overwhelmingly. That was a decisive referendum, no ifs and no buts.

A new bright dawn lies ahead for the island of Ireland and everyone should embrace it.

placemats how do you think it’s going to be possible for some counties of England to join Scotland and others to join the EU?

@placemats

I don’t think there will be a United Ireland within 2 years. It would have to be passed by referenda North and South and the Republic will not rush in to an ill considered referendum.
We would have a Citizens Assembly followed by a cross party parliamentary committee to thrash out the issues and make recommendations first.

These processes take time.

There may be a clamour for it from some in the North, Bearbehind , but in all seriousness I doubt much would come of it (initially at least) as trying to later the centuries-old, long-established Scottish-English border would only delay Scottish independence unnecessarily.

I think that was also the reason that in Scotland's Future, the White Paper that the Scottish Government produced well in advance of the referendum (fancy that? ), they accepted the recently changed sea border in the North Sea, which conveniently gave England a few extra oil and gas fields.

Dh is getting annoyed at the little vignettes that Sky is using to describe each Law Lord. He has a point.

If they are from Scotland or Wales (haven't seen an NI one yet), then that fact is highlighted. But no mention of the fact that a Law Lord is English.

It's the institutional assumption that "English" is the norm and Welsh, Scottish and NI are the aberrations exception.

Disclaimer: I'm not suggesting that the Supreme Court is institutionally biased. My issue is more with the subconscious assumption of the MSM.

Sorry- wrong thread - that's not a prediction

Stuff is either going to linger on, and on , and on... with delays and the possibility of revoke we will stay round about our usual "level" of income/expenditure/hopes/dreams etc..

or it will go to no deal and we'll be worse off for a bit, delays and supply issues for medication/food/fuel and we will all muddle through with our new "level" coming out a little bit lower than before.

(for us middle class, middle aged, healthy, wealthy-ish, home owner types that is... just my prediction...)

Inniu, I agree.

I have just thought of this and posted it on the Westminstenders thread:

Do I detect a potential 'fudge' here? Keep SPS for the whole island of Ireland, but have the Customs checks in Wales and Scotland for the other necessary checks? Sort of half in, half out?

That sounds like border in the sea to me.

Or a half border - which like being half pregnant, isn't a possibility. Just trying to think of what could be solutions.

The one which would suit most of us is EEA type arrangement, but I am not making that as a prediction because I don't think it will happen.

Suspect no deal. I wouldn’t want to be the person who has to serve up a retweaked WA when it’s already been overwhelmingly rejected three times. Not exactly sunlit uplands is it?

My gut says No Deal

Based on the suggestion the UK is currently touting for selective alignment on agri-food rules north and south, I think I can confidently predict a deterioration in food standards and consumer protections in the UK.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0920/1077243-agri-food-brexit/

On the selective approach to an all-island agri-food zone, it is understood that one of the areas the UK does not want alignment on is EU labelling rules. Such rules oblige food producers to label ingredients, additives, allergens and so on.

So if they don't want to continue with labelling rules in NI, presumably the intent is to remove them altogether. Sure, you're not really bothered about knowing what's in your food, are you?