Brexit predictions

[TheMShip]

I made this prediction on the most recent Westminstenders thread, and @Peregrina suggested we needed a thread solely for predictions. So here's mine:

I'm going to put my prediction hat on and say there'll be a vote of no confidence immediately on return in October, amended (allowed by Speaker Bercow) to say the house has confidence in Ken Clarke. He will implement the Benn act and ask for an extension. The EU will refuse 3 months and offer 2 years. Parliament will accept and then have a fixed term parliament act vote (2/3 majority needed) for a general election, which will happen in Nov/Dec.

I think he's playing the Brexiteers so we will end up with a version of WA, rebranded and Johnson-ified. And they will lap it up.

Break up of the UK for sure. People I thought were die hard Unionists including some of dh's relatives who have always voted DUP are exceedingly unhappy and intending voting in ways which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Dh himself is intending voting SNP at the next general election. Never thought I'd see that happen.

Prediction: MPs wont call a VONC right away because they want to force Johnson to extend article 50. He's less appealing to leave voters after that and his pledge to leave on the 31st Oct will be yet another lie he's told.

Has he found a way to avoid asking for an extension? Is he willing to break the law? Will the idiots leave it to late for a VONC? I have no idea.

If things continue with the current theme of unelected lying PM being demented then my second prediction is I think the EU is higly likely to give us an extension if asked.

If the EU said no then we no deal with a PM we have not elected and who according to the Scottish courts has broken the law with the suspension. Under those circs we will be a horribly unstable country in the continent of Europe and that has an impact on the countries surrounding us. It's actually in all of Europe's interest to not let us collapse * because who wants a crazy neighbour?

• johnson and co at the wheel and a no deal - it will be mayhem on steroids, tripping acid wearing ice skates.

What i think should happen : VONC as soon as they are back, then a GNU and ask for an extension.

If the GNU is truly working across party then every party can take the flack or dodge the flack for any decision made about brexit so if I were an MP I would avoid a GE like the clap until brexit had been resolved. Resolved by either a PV with revoke vs May's WA (thus not an actual deal so we can be headless chickens forever) or they can be very brave and STUPID and revoke without public say so.

In amongst all this mess, I can still raise a smile at this.

johnson and co at the wheel and a no deal - it will be mayhem on steroids, tripping acid wearing ice skates.

I have given up trying to second guess what will happen with Brexit itself, I am very much in the 'Prepare for the worst, hope for the best' camp.

But I do think that Brexit will go down in the history books for changing the way our country is governed and the powers the government have. It hasn't happened yet, but the way this country is governed is broken, possibly beyond repair. In such a divided HoC, nothing will ever be resolved upon (Brexit or otherwise)

I think that's a pretty safe prediction @Lex234. We're almost guaranteed to continue living in "interesting times" for some time to come. It's not been good for my mental health, and I know I'm not alone.

onalongsabbatical

Sorry, can only guess sometime around 9.45? Had got in bath (tmi ) seeking refuge from that bloody awful woman on the Marr Show. It was literally one line and as I said I wasn’t sure I’d heard it right. Checked it out online and saw I had.

Incredible.

@TheMShip I can definitely see a complete lack of progress in other key areas whilst there is so much division. I would like to see more cross party working and collaboration, basically a more middle of the line approach. That will not be possibly with such extreme representation we have currently, there is simply no common ground.

I think it's pretty difficult to predict beyond a GE because the polls are so all-over-the-place that the outcome of a GE is pretty much a dice roll at this point.

My prediction is based on a starting assumption, which is that Johnson wants to be PM for 5 years not 5 months, and that means he has to win an election. I don't think he can win a post no-deal election (and I don't think he thinks he can, either).

So my view has been for a while that we will (a) ask for and get another extension and (b) there will be an election next year. I thought for a while that Johnson would win that election, running on a "the people vs parliament" platform, but this government has proved so catastrophically incompetent, and Johnson so very unlikeable, that I think the chances of this have fallen quite steeply.

I think lonely and prettybird are right.

I think the EU is higly likely to give us an extension if asked

I'd go one further, if it came to it, and I really don't think it will, but if we didn't ask, I think the eu would step in and offer. Allowing rhe house to vote on it and accept it. They were thinking of doing it anyway, so it's not a leap.

We all forget the eu has some control here, they don't need to sit and wait for us to act. They can step in any moment they please and offer up an extension without being asked.

So in the worst case, I would predict the eu would simply offer us the extension taking Boris out the picture, handing full control to parliament, and making him largely irrelevant.

Bluntness oooo! I had that thought cross my mind but i didn't know if the EU could just offer...

Yes they can do it, and they were previously thinking of just removing the leave date totally.

So yes, it must be on their radar as they previously discussed it. Hence why not a leap.

As said it would have the effect of taking Boris out of the picture as our parliament can then take over the house again, debate it, vote on it and pass it in to law if they so choose.

Means what ever boris doesn't do becomes totally and utterly irrelevant. Eu can by pass him any time they chose. There is nothing at all to prevent them making us an offer.

Bluntness100, I thought the EU was only allowed to deal with the government and not Parliament. I seem to remember hearing that mention at some point in the past?

I think all the hard man talk and act is to try and keep the idea that no deal is still a possibility. I think the Kinnock amendment was deliberate and I think a (minorly revised) deal will be put back to Parliament. If it goes through we go on the GE. If it doesn’t, he’ll force a no deal, the a GE people vs Parliament.

GE without Brexit will lead to hard right. Brexit before a GE leaves hope that the Brexit party won’t get votes a more moderates might...

The WA will be brought back and passed at the 11th hour.
A GE will then be called that Labour will win as the Tories split down the middle in acrimony at the “betrayal” of those MPs who backed the WA.

bluntness thanks I'll let that info stew over and see if I conjure up a different prediction

Yes I think thé EU will offer an extension; without being asked. Some weeks ago; Gordon Brown had been meeting privately with EU leaders, to float exactly this possibility.

Problems we will still have:

1. Angry, fed up Leavers
2. When and who will win an election
3. Divided country; possibly worse

Yes, they can only deal with the government, but it's irrelevant. They just make an announcement, as they always do, that they are offering h government an extension, then parliament can request of Bercow time to debate it, and to pass a motion on it.

Fact the offer to the government is not relevant. They simply need to make sure parliament knows. So someone like junker does a press conference, and then it's over to parliament. It doesn't need to be secret.

My heart agrees with you @Bluntness100. My cynical old head thinks my heart’s a hopeless optimist.

Yes I think thé EU will offer an extension; without being asked.

But it’s pointless if BJ is refusing to accept one even if parliament has passed an act saying he has to extend!

Why is there not mass outrage that he’s breaking the law? I presume it is a law?!

The problem with parliament being petrified is that all the talks are now happening behind closed doors and we haven’t got a clue what’s going in. BJ frightens me.

I thought we had to ask for an extension, but having read the wording of Article 50 I can see pp's are right and the EU could offer. Interesting.

We have to deal or no deal, ie come out. Over 50% of the population are sat quietly waiting for what they voted. If we don't come out, it really is a failure of democracy and I think they'll be even more angry people. I'm in a county where all the main cities/towns voted above average to come out, so personally I won't want to be out on the streets.

Over 50% of the population

False.

52% of those that voted

37% of the electorate - those that were over 18 in 2016 (so essentially, those that are now over 21, less those that have died in the interim).

An even smaller percentage of the population - but I'm not going to bother doing the calculation, as the population of the UK will include those that weren't allowed to vote (including those EU citizens from the E27 who were going to be directly affected - although Commonwealth citizens were allowed to vote ).

We have to deal or no deal, ie come out.

Well, not necessarily-we can also revoke and try to step back and make sense of all this without rushing into a catastrophe.

Over 50% of the population are sat quietly waiting for what they voted.

No, what actual percentage of the population actually voted to leave?

"I suspect, probably nothing and we’ll have to do exactly what Boris wants. Isn’t that a dictatorship??"
I agree. I think the WA will go through at the last minute and we will all applaud his brilliance.