Brexit predictions

[TheMShip]

I made this prediction on the most recent Westminstenders thread, and @Peregrina suggested we needed a thread solely for predictions. So here's mine:

I'm going to put my prediction hat on and say there'll be a vote of no confidence immediately on return in October, amended (allowed by Speaker Bercow) to say the house has confidence in Ken Clarke. He will implement the Benn act and ask for an extension. The EU will refuse 3 months and offer 2 years. Parliament will accept and then have a fixed term parliament act vote (2/3 majority needed) for a general election, which will happen in Nov/Dec.

Watching with interest while mulling over my own predictions, very few of which have been right in the past.

There will be many, many unintended consequences that no-one has even thought about. Or if they have, they’ve kept very quiet about it.

The UK will break apart, Scotland first then Northern Ireland.

I have a horrible fear we will "get back to normal " where normal is poorer and with less choice but nobody has the stomach for constitutional reform because we are all bored and exhausted.

Everybody will join the Liberal Democrats, all proclaiming they remain true to their values when they said they would always be Labour/Conservative/UKIP/Monster Raving Loony etc.

Through work I met a group of young people from Dublin recently. I asked them what the feeling on the street was about the chaos in Westminster. Their response was an eye roll then
" Most of us are completely indifferent really." They went on to say they knew they were firmly European and wanted to remain so - with all the advantages that brings - and the U.K.'s shambles was little to do with them. However they thought the U.K. would eventually stay in the EU.

I don't agree with them. I think we are underestimating the danger of apparent clowns. The ERG numbering only 50 have so far managed to oust 40 plus moderates from their party and edge towards their control of the cabinet.They have suspended parliament and suppressed assessments of the impact of their policy. They have defied parliamentary process again and again.. There is some resistance on the streets but a dangerous amount of acquiescence.

I think through chicanery and dirty play we will leave the EU without parliamentary approval.

Then they will win another election by use of dirty cyber techniques probably with some Faragist cooperation they will successfully spin a facade that gives longer term in office possibly suspending the FTP Act for a ' temporary' period.

The days of statesmanship, debate, compromise and oration are dead.

Elements of the ERG wet dream will then follow.Financial hardship for many, breakup of NHS, reduced taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Loss of many small businesses and greater control by US money here..

Reduced worker's rights, less holiday, less job security, decreased ability to claim unfair dismissal, return of tribunal fees, easier redundancy processes. Less protection when a business gets taken over.

Separation of Scotland and eventually NI.

Sunken pound. Greater gap between rich and poor. Higher mortality rates and bankruptcies. More below the poverty line like the US. Reduced affordability of travel - so those on lower incomes save for occasional trips abroad. Reduced property prices but reduced wages. Increase in lifetime renters.

Plus a shift in our landscape of food and produce becoming more US derived, less regulated yet more expensive food, medicine and healthcare.

Hope I'm wrong.

lonelyplanetmum I hope you're wrong too

Lonelyplanetmum sounds all too plausible, really hope it does not come to any of that

Broadcasting House reporting that the Government is intending to double prorogue, beyond 31st October.

I fear that the UK is following the Argentinian trajectory in the early 20th century: a series of catastrophic political decisions which irrevocably damage its economy, resulting in it dropping out of the G7 (perhaps even out of the G20) and taking over a 100 years to recover, if it ever does.

Its economy will also be reduced by Scotland (re)gaining its independence which I now think will indeed happen within 5 years (10 at most). So at least Scotland will escape the worse of FUKD's decline.

I also predict a Border Poll and a united Ireland within the same timescale.

I suspect he will get a new deal proposal. Ireland in basically a customs union removing the need for the back stop. This has a chance of being agreed by the house, maybe voted in by a very slim majority. They may wish more time to review it though.

If not, then they will wait it out to see if he seeks an extension.

If he does not seek the extensions then yes the vote of no confidence will occur and your prediction will possibly come true.

It won't be immediate though, it will be when he either loses a vote on a new deal or refuses to seek an extension.

If he tries to get round the no deal law, then also I think they will vote no confidence.

If the government under his leadership seeks the extension I think he will remain in power whilst they campaign for a ge.

I really think his only hope now is to get a "new" deal and the house approves it. Anything else and I suspect he is gone, it's simply a case of when. I don't think he can survive anything else.

Yes @lonelyplanetmum's predictions do look plausible. A sort of second Victorian era. But without the charitable urges some of the wealthy then had.

And I thought I was an optimistic person!

Broadcasting House reporting that the Government is intending to double prorogue, beyond 31st October.

They were talking about this on radio 4 this morning.

Can nobody stop him if he tries to do this? He’s turning into a dictator

That the hard Brexiters will never stop. Even if we crash out they will still insist that we never strike a deal with the EU.

Meanwhile we become poorer and poorer with some places preserved as basically living museums, bit like Venice.

The rest will be a shithole.

@Letseatgrandma

Do you have a link? That is horrifying.

@Ohflippineck can you remember approx what time that was? I listened to most of BH but missed bits, would like to hear what they said. Ta.

No link-they were just talking about it on the radio. It’s just scary if that’s a possibility. I’m not sure what people will do if he tries that.

Protests don’t seem to be making any different.

Riots? They’d just send the police in and arrest people causing any damage.

If the queen gets involved, that could cause long term problems with Brexiteers turning in the monarchy in the future. She also has no real power and can’t eg tell the police to go and arrest Boris if he tries to break parliamentary laws, so presume she won’t get involved.

Bercow and the remaining MPs? Could they do anything, if so what?!

What can/will people do? I suspect, probably nothing and we’ll have to do exactly what Boris wants. Isn’t that a dictatorship??

The link for the programme is this one, but I don't know at what approx time - have asked poster above who also posted it.
All radio progs have links.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0008h5w

@Letseatgrandma

At least one positive of your scenario becomes likely is that the Conservative party's austerity programme has significantly reduced numbers in the police force, criminal courts and prisons. If BJ listened to advice any half assed dictator would tell him to build up the army and police force first!

I think BJ is going to continue with his hard line in order to ensure the EU know he means it. He has no choice as his hands are now tied by the recent actions of the HoC. I hope there will be a deal and that this approach will bare fruit. It's not going to come soon and don't think the EU will say anything for a few weeks yet with an announcement made at the final hour during the Oct. 17th conference.

I think the double prorogue is something where a daft comment has taken wings and become fact.

His advisor said if the house moved against parliament they'd prorogue again, and he was only half joking. It wouldn't be permitted without very good reason so I really don't think this is a worry. More just a symptom that both sides are playing dirty.

I think the double prorogue is something where a daft comment has taken wings and become fact.

Let’s hope it doesn’t give BJ ideas!

Double prorogue link https://waitingfortax.com/2019/09/15/the-flaw-in-the-benn-act/

I think the other thing we need to remember is Boris Johnson is not some mad kamikaze pilot intent on no deal.

Why? Because he wants to remain in power. Many people read rhe yellow hammer document and thought oh well it's worst case, it will be fine. And when it comes about we really aren't, then those same people will be angry. Very angry. Boris will be out of power and quickly, likelyvis a no confidence vote and the most hated man in Britain.

He's manythings but not an Idiot. A double prorogue and his own party would take him out.

The impact of no deal is hard to judge, because it's hard to predict how hard rhe pound will fall and for how long. Everyone knows when your currency devalues then everything you import becomes that much mor expensive, so it's not just the increased tarrifs, it's how far the pound devalues and for how long. It literally could be years.

So when people start to see the impacts weren't mitigated, and that their cost of living is now 30 or 40 percent more expensive,because of the currency devaluation, they will get very very angry indeed.

Boris doesn't want that, he's not out to lose his job and be the most hated man in Britain. Right now he's playing hard ball to get a deal and get it through Parliament.

But it's high stakes poker, and with That you can win big or loose big....

Agree with TheMShip but I predict that the public will be so outraged at a Labour/Clarke coupe that Boris will win a general election and with votes from the Brexit party will scrap the extension and have us out of the EU by Xmas.

Also Corbyn will be humiliated at his failure to lead the rebellion and the LibDems will become the official opposition.

Completely agree with Bluntness. Boris is playing hard ball, it's all he can do in the current situation in order to get a deal.