If there were a GE tomorow

[ODFOx]

And Jo Swinspn went in to bat with the Lib Dems with only one issue: 'vote lib dem and we'll stop Brexit for good and then call another GE', would you vote for them?

I think that I would, if I believed that they would stick to their word and have a full GE with other things to offer later.

Oddly a look at the lib dem manifesto shows some startling contradictions with their leaders voting record (I know which one I believe) and some shocking propositions including:

Introducing an "X" option on official ID documents for those who don't identify as male or female - as I said don't get me started!

Decriminalise the sale and purchase of sex - yea cos prostitutes don't matter eh! Says they will support sex workers who are exploited abused and wish to leave but I really don't see how decriminalising the SALE of sex correlates with that!

And there it is... Make identifying as a different gender much easier! What could possibly go wrong?!

"Ensure that trans prisoners are placed in prisons that reflect their gender identity" lovely a direct quote that pretty much sums up the worst of gender self ID! That's right ladies and gents, the lib dems want to put quite possibly MEN who have been convicted of sexual assault and other violence against women IN PRISON WITH WOMEN

Legalising cannabis - wonderful - are they going to provide extra money to the Nhs to deal with the fallout of that?!

Absolutely NOTHING on violence against women, nothing on appalling rape conviction rates, conviction of "wife bashers", stalkers... NOTHING AT ALL on the huge issue of violence against women and girls.

Oh wow!

"Reinstate maintenance grants" which THEIR LEADER voted to abolish!

The comments about labour not having a clear plan for Nhs and social care are ridiculous and plain WRONG! The labour party have a plan to bring in a national social care service - it's VERY easy to find in THEIR manifesto

Oh crap! They want to make Nhs and social care all under one umbrella - would be VERY interested to know what those IN these professions think of that. Funded apparently by a 1p income tax rise and a NEW additional tax for workers just for health and social care. Any accountants/auditors/economists about?

There's a section named "home not hospital" talking about caring for our increasingly ageing population more at home than in hospital - sounds good right? From reading it sounds VERY much to me like when the tories brought in "care in the community" claiming MH patients would be cared for at home and this would not lead to a lack of care - well...we all know how THAT turned out!!

Huge section on having GP services available out of hours, evenings, weekends etc consulting via Skype etc I actually happen to agree but I really don't see GP's voting for that!

A public health campaign to advise people how to "improve their mental resilience" lovely! Apparently if we're mentally ill it's our own fault now! Further stigmatising mental illness!

Apparently they're going to reverse Tory welfare cuts - which (don't have time to check every lib dem MPs voting record) their leader VOTED FOR

They Bang on about building 300,000 homes - but these are "affordable" homes so private?

Ohhh interesting - giving tenants first refusal to buy their landlords house if they decide to sell at market rate - yet when labour floated a very similar idea they were lambasted!

Wow! Interesting reading. On the surface many ideas I actually like BUT I wouldn't trust them to stick to them when they are opposite to how Swinson votes and given their betrayal of their supposed principles last time they were in govt

I'm a remainer but would have been fine with a SENSIBLE brexit given the result of the vote (though I do think the ref was very shoddily handled)

The remain campaign's mistake was to concentrate on the disadvantages of leaving (Project Fear as it was called) as opposed to focus on the benefits of remaining in the EU.

Decriminalise the sale and purchase of sex - yea cos prostitutes don't matter eh! Says they will support sex workers who are exploited abused and wish to leave but I really don't see how decriminalising the SALE of sex correlates with that!

Got to Amsterdam and see the state of the place due to the above liberalizations. Girls in glass tubes, in windows, etc. When you walk down some streets you can smell the drugs in the air.

The remain campaign's mistake was to concentrate on the disadvantages of leaving (Project Fear as it was called) as opposed to focus on the benefits of remaining in the EU.

I don't think it would have made any difference to be honest.

I've yet to speak to a leave voter who would have paid ANY heed to what the remain side had to say at the time of the referendum.

Plenty saying now "why weren't we told about X y z" a major one being the Northern Ireland/Ireland border - but of course we WERE told at the time but the remain side was very much treated (and still is - even with it becoming blindingly fucking obvious how completely disorganised brexit is being handled!) as less valid, "paranoid" and "pessimistic".

The amount of time/column inches given over to the leave campaign MASSIVELY outweighed those given to remain.

On programmes like question time the debate is heavily weighted towards leave even if the panel isn't!

I've watched, read and seen on SM many examples of the benefits of staying in the eu given - and completely dismissed by leavers but not by reasoned arguments just "lies" "remainer nonsense" and similar.

Even when on here and on other social media people have asked leavers for the benefits of brexit leavers are unable to give definitive answers beyond "sovereignty" "make our own laws" "immigration" and even when asked to back THOSE points up they can't!

And now when it's all going to hell in a handcart the best they can say is things like "it won't be as bad as WWII" "we'll have adequate food" - like wtf!

We don't NEED to be doing this AT ALL and the best you can say is "it won't be THAT bad?!"

Bloody insane!

And of course I agree decriminalising the sex trade is a fucking appalling idea!

Rape is indeed legal in the uk!

It's worth keeping an eye on the opinion polls with this.

The split between Labour and Lib Dems on the Remain side of Brexit is currently producing a LOT of polls that suggest that the Tories may not only win, but win a majority. The assumption that a Lib Dem vote automatically harms the Leave/Tory side of things needs heavy geographical qualification. People who want to remain in the EU as a matter of priority need to be very, very aware of this.

flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=2295

If you click on each of the polls on the left in Flavible, you get a map that shows one prediction of seat distribution. The 'line' on the bar chart to the right of the map is the line required for a majority.

It's well worth taking 2 minutes to click down all the polls for September 2019.

Note: the seat distribution on Electoral Calculus generally suggests a greater Tory majority than that shown here.

I've just seen on Facebook (not verified yet) that apparently lib dems are already in talks with tories about another coalition govt.

Well (if true) we all know how well that worked out for us last time!

So all you "I hate tories but I can't bear Corbyn either so I'm voting lib dem"ers maybe need to consider if that is really a sensible move.

Vote lib dem get tories again? No thanks!

To be fair on the LibDems, I think such rumours are probably coming from the Conservatives to attempt to derail the LibDem momentum.

A bit like the rumours that the Scottish LibDems recently tried to spread about the SNP being about to vote with the Conservatives in return for Indyref2.

NB: I'm not a LibDem fan, but I can see why in England but not Scotland they are looking like a reasonable alternative (or rather, what passes for "reasonable" in the current clusterfuck of UK politics )

Graphista "Tories and the LDs in coalition talks" is just another attempt to smear them, as the Cons have very successfully done with Corbyn and Labour.

Goes alongside another FB post that the EU and Cherie Blair have got Shimina Began back into the UK, with a new secret ID.

The tories will seek an arrangement with the DUP/BXP and with any other far right party.

I don't think the LibDems will contemplate going into Coalition with the Tories again for a long long time, and certainly not Tories led by the likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg.

I'd vote anyone to get the tories out. But then I'm in a fairly safe labour ward.

No. And I’m a lifelong Lib Dem voter. And I voted remain.

I think the iie that the LibDems were talking about another coalition with the Tories is more likely to have been put about by the Labour Party who are worried about the number of votes they look like losing to the LibDems.

Jo Swinson has made it absolutely clear that the LibDems will not enter any coalition with any party led by Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn as they are both brexiters and unfit to be PM.

I'm not sure, I was thinking about this the other day, I usually vote Tory but unless Boris sorts his shit out I am not sure I could again, in fact I couldn't, and I couldn't vote for Corbyn, so by default it leaves me with the Lib Dem's.

However I don't agree with many of their policies. So politically I'm a bit fucked. I wouldn't consider not voting.

However I think there is a long road before a ge, we may end up with a caretaker prime minister, anything could happen, so worth keeping our powders dry and seeing what is occurring closer to the time.

So I guess I just became a floating voter...☹️

That’s assuming Swinson gets re-elected?

Her seat in scotland is very marginal, and the SNP won it in a recent election. It’s entirely possible that the SNP reclaim it.

I think the OP has not understood the LibDems policy when she posts-

"And Jo Swinspn went in to bat with the Lib Dems with only one issue: 'vote lib dem and we'll stop Brexit for good and then call another GE'"

Jo Swinson's preference and that of the LibDems is to have a Peoples Vote with the option to Remain.

However the other parties may block that and if a general election comes first the LDs would campaign on the basis that if a majority LD government were elected, Article 50 would be revoked on day 1. There is no suggestion that there would then be another general election. A LibDem government would address all the other important matters that have been neglected for the last three and a half years.

If, as is more likely, another government were to emerge, the LibDems would continue to campaign strongly for a PV. .

Yaralie that is precisely the problem. The chances of a LibDem maj are vanishingly small. Given their other positioning and Con / Lab / Tigger defections the assumption is that they would lend confidence and supply to the Conservatives and the "price" would be a PV.

If they would truly work with Labour then why the reluctance to do so now?

Therefore core objective looks like replace Labour and not block Brexit and the Tories.

I don't think anyone misunderstands. The willingness to vote LibDem is more about ability to suspend disbelief or indeed agreement with actual objective. (Bit like no-one truly believes current Labour position on PV and campaign for Remain but it gives them an out if they prefer Labour to Brexit / No Brexit).

I just don't see them doing even a C & S with the Tories. The last Coalition did them too much damage. They would lose all the new members they have gained and a good number of old ones.

Lib Dem's live on this holier than thou principal and when faced with the reality of the world recognise it is bollocks.

I think revocation of article 50 is undemocratic but I see the argument that if they win a general election then they do have a mandate as a government. However, despite the utter dire nature of politicians currently the LD won't stand a hope. May hold a balance of power although the unpredictable nature of politics these days who knows.

What I am glad of is that the star gazing idealists that voted for Labour appear to be coming to a realisation as to what that party now stands for, and in any event has no likelihood of forming a government as its leader apart from being frozen in extreme left wing politics of the 1970s prefers protest to leadership.

Peregrina if you accept that they are highly unlikely to win a majority what do you think they would do if they held the balance of power?

eg Labour 240ish, SNP 50ish, LibDem 60ish.

I was out yesterday and didn't see your question. I was tempted to say 'Pass'.

I suppose it would depend on what policy Labour had stood on. If they'd come out for revoke, then I think they'd be stupid not to back them. I'd hope they'd realise that keeping the current flavour of Tory out of power was an absolute priority.

I was dismayed by the 2010 decision to go into Coalition. In 2015, I had the difficult decision of "who do I vote for?" Voting to try to get the Tory out was my choice. Labour has always come a distant third here and prior to boundary changes a couple of decades ago, it had always been a Tory "pig with a blue rosette" constituency. Other family members went Green, and others moved to a Labour constituency, so went with that.

Thanks peregrina. I actually think the current split of votes across constituencies means your answer reflects reality for most. Marginals are usually Labour / Tory or Tory / LibDem. Therefore for most there is no real choice between Labour and LibDem but rather between Tory and Not Tory.

Then the question is how many LibDems swing voters would choose "Remain" above all else in a Tory / Labour marginal thus effectively voting Tory by voting LibDem. There are over 200 seats in this category and so I think this is the key to a GE result.

That's going to be a difficult decision for a lot of people.

My fantasy result would be Labour 280 ish, LibDem 150, SNP 50. Tories pushed into 3rd place on 130 is and the rest a mix of PC. Independents and SF(who don't take their seats anyway.) There is no place for the Brexit Party in my imagination. So Labour, LibDem, SNP and PC would have to co-operate.

Well, it's not going to happen.

My fantasy result would be Labour 280 ish, LibDem 150

Certainly is fantasy. Watch Question Time episode on 5 Sep 2019.

Emily Thornberry destroyed Labour by saying as Foreign Secretary she would negotiate a deal and then campaign for remain. ei campaign against the deal she had made. Insane.

Layla of LibDems said her policy was for PV. However, Ian Dale pointed that Jon Swinson has stated that even if there was PV and the result was leave the LibDems would ignore the result.

Can't see a party whose policy is to ignore majority decisions getting many votes.

So the next GE result will most likely be a coalition between Brexit and Conservative Party. Benn Act repealed and no deal as EU don't want to revisit the WA.

There is a secret Facebook group to vote JS out of her seat in the next election, it has nearing 100k of members.
I wonder how many other secret groups there are?
Tactical voting may cause serveral upsets and not just the way you expect.

Nope. We have to get this Brexit thing settled. Terrible time to go throwing votes away.