Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Friends in US (I have several, mostly from uni days) in touch last night did not completely understand what just happened. They were fairly shocked about what the removal of the whip meant. However, they have been talking for a long time now about how they see the move towards the hard right in the UK as paralleling what happened to them pre-2016. They are especially alarmed at BJ's authoritarian tendencies and (obviously) see BJ/Cummings as a close parallel to Trump/Bannon in the early days. We all see how that's gone....
I have no patience for the few remaining "moderate" Tories who stay silent. At least last night's rebels showed courage. How frightening that the party response is to boot them out. The attempt to crush any dissenting voices is very like the tactics of the current Republican Party in the US.

Everyone in my family voted Leave. What they know about politics could be written on the back of a postage stamp. They will never have heard about a backstop for eg. And no idea there is a HoC and HoL etc. Furthermore they just aren’t interested and any attempt to discuss it, their eyes just glaze over. My mum likes Nigel Farage as she thinks he talks well (?) but couldn’t tell you one thing he has said.

They will just vote as per the daily mail / sun tell them to. Depending how Johnson is depicted in the press will determine whether or not they support him. Press would really have to overtly trash him for them to switch allegiance. There is no analysis of any situation or story. Headlines only please.

These aren’t the racist thugs you think of when you think BNP. I reckon there are loads of people like this. Loads. More people like this than not.

I am very worried.

I suspect homelessness ( and mental health problems, addiction and family breakdown) are seen by many on the right as examples of personal failing which should be clamped down on, not the fault of austerity.

Which they can use their money to gloss over when it happens in their own families - addiction - book into the Priory. Family breakdown - what's that? Look at the example of our Prime Minister.

Question about timings. As far as I’m aware, if they succeed with 2/3 vote for a GE on Monday, earliest a GE could be held is 14th Oct. (I know problem with Jewish religious observance.)
So Parliament would not be sitting on 14th October, when they are supposed to hearing a government report on NI? Isn’t it the law that Parliament has to be sitting? Have I got something wrong?

Rory S said on Today prog that there are (IIRC) 20-30 others who are currently supporting Govt having been sweet talked into the idea of a "new deal" (how can they fall for this crap?), but who are wavering.
If that dam bursts, it's all out collapse for the Tories.
Wish they's just bring back and pass the WA. As has been said many a time on these threads, we will have to sign up to most of it to negotiate a FTD in the end anyway. Thought S Kinnock sounded reasonable, also on Today.

A new deal - like hell there is anything even remotely near a table. I mean, I’m gullible, but even I would bet my salary J is doing sweet FA. New deal my ass.

Theo Usherwood@theousherwood
Today:

Now: political cabinet, then cabinet.

Noon: PMQs (sight of 21 former Tory MPs sat on opposition benches).

12.45pm: Chx Sajid Javid announces spending review.

3pm: Second reading of Bill to delay Brexit.

7pm: Final votes on Bill.

8.30pm-ish: FTPA vote for GE.

PMK

Appreciate your work Red

Was just going to say don’t forget PMQ at noon.

A new deal can be the old one with a few small changes but a nice new name....

add to the fact the we can now all hear about the fact the WA is NOT the final deal, it wouldnt surprise me if it becoming an acceptable option

I have time for Hilary Benn as the son of a political "grandee". He is clear, calm and articulate. You see his sadness at the state of parliamentary politics - but you always get the sense that he wants the best for the country. But I don't have any such respect for Stephen Kinnock

I'm not sure his father would be proud of him - at least, not for his political actions

"They will just vote as per the daily mail / sun tell them to... These aren’t the racist thugs you think of when you think BNP. I reckon there are loads of people like this. Loads. More people like this than not."

I'm sure this is right, but remember how the polls swung against May during the 2017 campaign. Things can change and the papers are fickle (and much less important than they used to be).

Surely if Parliament votes for a GE tonight they may as well have voted for "no deal" and not bothered trying to pass that bill?

A GE plays into BJ's hands. It's exactly what he wants.

We are so screwed.

PMK, thanks red

Not going to get much work done today, looking at the parliamentary schedule.

calming - all of my family (minus my dp and my brother) voted to Leave. All my extended family, and all of dp's side. They think BoZo is marvellous and will definitely see last night's purge as a positive. They adore Trump, too.

My dad gets all of his info from the Daily Mail (doesn't read anything else, doesn't watch the news, isn't online) and recently admitted that he 'only reads the headlines' these days.

They are all kind, generous, lovely people, living entirely normal lives, and they are all entirely comfortable with the looming semi-fascism of BoZo/Cummings/Rees Mogg and the remaining Tory party.

It is utterly terrifying.

Now that Johnson has completely lost his majority by kicking out the Tory MPs, he could do as I suggested and ditch the DUP - they are no longer necessary.
Indeed. But the DUP are aligned with them on other issues. It's just that Johnson doesn't NEED them like May did.

Perhaps he will bring back the WA with the NI only backstop?

The ERG hardliners have problems with the WA which are not just to do with the backstop. Which is a problem.

My mum likes Nigel Farage as she thinks he talks well (?) but couldn’t tell you one thing he has said.

Its like Trump. What she means is he talks using simple language and sound bites. He doesn't do long intellectual speeches which she doesn't understand like Clarke or Grieve. He represents 'people like her' from the way he talks as she can identify with how he speaks. Clarke and Grieve etc are 'liberal elite' because what they are saying is meaningless blah blah blah which is viewed as superior and closed to people like her.

Johnson like Farage and Trump speaks in this simplistic celeb manner.

These speeches and demonstration of understanding of issues are meaningless to the bulk of voters.

Westminstenders need to get this idea that most people really don't know x, y and z and more to the point don't care anyway. That's the flaw of the electoral campaigning of the LDs in particular and the remain side if the house more generally.

They are pitching assuming education or caring about certain issues.

Reality is that a huge number of people don't care and their voting is based on what they view is best for them and them only and doesn't involve thought for others.

I am despairing of what comes next. It's not pretty and not pleasant. We've had the political cleansing. Next comes the social cleansing.

People will start to die over Brexit and I suspect it will start in earnest in mid October not the end of October.

@RedToothBrush What are we going to be dying of?

pmk and thanks Red

The analysis of the Sun's lack of influence in Liverpool and why it voted Remain is interesting. This was apparently because they swapped to the Mirror.

Other areas, where, for whatever reason , the Sun was boycotted, but the Daily Mail or Express was the beneficiary, were more strongly Leave.

Can't remember where I saw it though - but it was recent.

There is another crisis as well as homelessness perhaps even more hidden from the majority of the electorate. I spent yesterday in the orthopaedic department at one of the London teaching hospitals. Remember when orthopaedics clinics were filled with rugby players and other younger people with injuries from accidents etc. Not any more, 75% of the patients were octogenarians and nonagenarians who have fallen, some with very traumatic injuries, and most were still living in their homes, even though the majority had fallen as a result of being at some stage of dementia. The NHS is having to mop up the casualties in the social care crisis. No doubt the honourable lassitude for the eighteenth century would feel those over 80 are legitimate targets for social Darwinism....

Pretty it was late last week. I linked to it on these threads. I havent had chance to read it yet.

I think the premise was merely that the sun promoted more nationalistic views whereas the mirror was more internationalist and that was important.

Generally speaking EU money has tended to favour internationalist agenda, so when that goes we will become even more inward looking I suspect.

Douglas Carswell tweeted this earlier:

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Last night the Conservative party started to come to terms with a basic truth: You cannot be a party of the nation and not believe in national self government. The 21 ex ministers opposed to self government will never again govern

If you want an easy read and follow for 'the other side' reasoning and mentality he's a good one and isn't as rage inducing as most.

There is going to be even more nationalism and flag waving going on over the next few weeks in the run in to an election.

It's not going to be pleasant for EU nationals. Big ramping up is about to kick in.

Not any more, 75% of the patients were octogenarians and nonagenarians who have fallen, some with very traumatic injuries, and most were still living in their homes, even though the majority had fallen as a result of being at some stage of dementia. The NHS is having to mop up the casualties in the social care crisis.

I can't remember if it was on here or a tweet I saw yesterday or day before which made the point that Brexit problems meant that there was going to have to be even more health care rationing which basically meant that the elderly weren't going to get certain treatments and children would be be prioritised.

I think it was partly about drugs but also more widely about care.

There is a big shock coming, and soon on this.

Sorry, what does PMK mean?

t's not going to be pleasant for EU nationals. Big ramping up is about to kick in.

Unfortunately I agree with you RTB.

The worst thing is getting the british citizenship doesnt protect you for that either.

PMK = Place mat king.
from a typo many threads ago for place marking

"They are all kind, generous, lovely people, living entirely normal lives, and they are all entirely comfortable with the looming semi-fascism of BoZo/Cummings/Rees Mogg and the remaining Tory party."

As you say, there are lots of people like this and it is rather terrifying. But - presumably they voted Tory at the last election and will vote Tory again this time. The interesting thing is the % of the population that will change their vote from 2017 (or vote when they abstained last time, or vice versa). There are a lot of marginal constituencies and swing voters there will have a significant impact. The question is of course, in which direction they swing...