Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

@bellinisurge you've articulated exactly my quandary on a GA. I live in a remain area with a newly elected Labour mp as the last tory one was ousted because of brexit in the last election. Ironically the tory mp voted remain but when May came out with her 'brexit means brexit' he completely switched sides and parroted the party line exposing himself as a true weathervane career politician. I took great pleasure in emailing him prior to the GA telling him that I would be voting against him specifically rather than for his opponent.

Now, I don't know if I can vote Labour again given Corbyn's messiah delusions and 70s nonsense but voting LD would probably be a wasted vote.

Thanks Red.

It might have changed but my MP’s view re WA was that he caved last vote and finally voted for it as he wanted to leave and saw that as the quickest route. He is hardcore ERG and a member of the Star Chamber. No idea what he would do if it did end up being presented again but I lobbied hard before the 3rd reading and will do so again if by any chance it does get brought again.

The British electorate is rather different from the American one. I'm not convinced the hard right under Boris can get more than 30% of the vote here.

I posted a lot on here back in 2016 and several name changes and anxiety attacks later just want to check back in.

I think Red is right in BJ. My neighbours who I initially thought had voted Leave then sounded like they hadn’t said the other day they had voted Leave . One of them is a GP so I hadn’t been sure. Their view over proroguing Parliament was it’s crap but what choice does he have?

Yesterday I was with a friend and her DD, both voted Remain. I’d assumed friend would see Johnson for what he is but as I launched into a tirade about him she went quiet then her DD let slip that her Mum ‘rather likes him’.

I missed Ken Clarke’s speech last night - anyone know where I can watch it?

I’m surprised and delighted to no longer have a Tory MP the morning. Didn’t think he had it in him TBH. Almost enough to make me vote for him if he stood as an independent. He still wants to leave with a deal though but I’m starting to think we have to at this point.

Referendums if done properly will take months. Can’t see it as a way forward.

GE should be resisted until we’ve resolved this mess. But the temptation likely to be too much for labour.

if by any chance it does get brought again.

The problem is it needs cross party support.

It therefore needs the rebel alliance to ALL vote for it or Johnson to bring it forward and some of the rebel alliance to vote with him.

Neither of which is likely.

Not forgetting that even if the rebel alliance were to do that, at some point in the near future we have a GE. And if the Tories win the opportunity to sabotage large chucks of close alignment is possible and likely. Indeed I suspect Johnson would go full on trump as the chances are a Tory win means a majority for the tories / brexit party.

As I said some time ago, I fear that ship has sailed.

The fanatical side of Brexiteers means than even if we remain this issue isn't going away either. It will be at every election for the next couple of decades.

Leaving now is about close alignment with the US and politics that go hand in hand with that.

This is the reality that doesn't yet seem to have been grasped.

Pmk

while there is a large and vocal section of leavers who are racist meatheads, I've actually seen very few actual threats of murder and murders happening.

Hmmm.... I’m assuming you are not an immigrant then? On such subject, I would ask an immigrant what their experience is just like I would ask a black person about racism tbh.

As an EU citizen, I have seen that happening. The threats towards EU citizens and the ‘going back home’. This might have been ‘just’ words and aggressive stares but they are there nonetheless. It wouldn’t take a lot for that to become physical. THIS is what I am very worried about for the future. For MY future and the one of my dcs (who are bi national).
I wouldn’t want to under estimate that.

On that subject have you seen this article?
theworldnews.net/gb-news/brexit-new-rules-could-give-eu-nationals-three-year-right-to-remain-after-possible-no-deal
The Government is poised to announce a liberalisation of rules on EU nationals' residency in the UK to allay concerns about their status after a possible no-deal Brexit.

Riiight.... nothing to do with the fact it just wasn’t possible to implement then. Nope it’s all to be nice to EU citizens and reassure them....

I'm not convinced the hard right under Boris can get more than 30% of the vote here.

I think very few people have realise that the Tories are now an extreme right party, a fascist one. They still think that BJ has no choice (and tbh seeing how every is camping in their position, it’s hard to see a way out unless you force the issue some time).
As there is NO OTHER party in the right, thanks to the (nearly) two party system in the U.K., people who are right leaning will still vote Tory. Because there is no alternative. They are not going to vote LD, Green let alone Labour!

And YY about te fact that BJ is still showing him as a great leader, one that is taking steps and tell people off when necessary (see what happened to rebels!). This will appeal a lot to people with ‘conservative’ views who think that people can now get away with murder wo ever been told off.

I have no worry he is going to attract many people, esp with some of the headlines today....

I think very few people have realise that the Tories are now an extreme right party, a fascist one. They still think that BJ has no choice (and tbh seeing how every is camping in their position, it’s hard to see a way out unless you force the issue some time).

This.

If you don't like Corbyn and you aren't socialist leaning naturally and 'just want to look after your family' and there's no LDs around...

... Boris seems to be a strong leader.

Majority of the public don't get it.

Remember: The leafy shires don't see the consequences just like they don't see homelessness.

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. Politics is upside down - some Johnson allies v pleased as what would normally be a massive crisis gives them huge opportunity to finish the business of the referendum in 2016 and get the majority they believe they can win

2. Tory party will have a clearer position on Brexit - so what, if it means some household names are chucked out, it means they can make history by getting us out of the EU and if it means reshaping the Tory party to do it, so be it

3. The hope is they can win convincingly because Labour's position will be less clear - offering referendum on credible Remain or credible Leave - ergo more delay - BUT

4. Some senior Tories, not those who've been kicked out, believe aggressive tactics will repel some voters - they wonder where extra seats will actually come from to get that majority - potential damage from leaving with no deal afterwards might still be politically unforgiveable

5. Labour leadership believes while it's hard to straddle their Leave/Remain constituencies, that they can win, after years of pressure on public services they reckon public ready for their message

6. And while Johnson has cut through as a celeb politician, he can repel, just as he can attract - MP s in both main parties worry that if election becomes a battle between their bases, lib dems hoover up millions in the middle, so we could be heading for another hung parly

7. Huge concerns too over what impact this will all have on keeping the UK togehter, and what opportunities this offers the SNP and those who would like to see a united Ireland

8. Anyway, before this becomes intolerably long thread, suffice to say, there are lots of hoops to jump thro before we even get to what would be an incredible election, with no map on which to predict a likely outcome - blog coming soon! will end here for the night, more tmrw

@DustOffYourHighestHopes I put "Ken Clarke speech" into Twitter and followed a link to the Channel 4 site. The whole speech was there.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3677475-Protests-against-the-Prorogation-of-Parliament protest thread :)

No, I'm not an immigrant. And I'm not denying it's happening. But out of 17.5m voters, how many are actually doing this? I'm not saying it's right and I'm not saying it's not happening, but I do think that there is a meathead minority who make it their cause, but to say it's all or almost all leavers doing it is wrong, and that's the point I'm trying to make.

Leavers are not homogeneous in the same way remainers aren't. It weakens an argument to tar all members of each 'side' with the same brush. THAT is my argument. But my point is being lost somehow.

I'd say that the majority of each 'side' just keeps their head down and gets in with their day. As is always, it's the ones who shout loudest who get noticed. But that doesn't mean everybody on each 'side' is the same by any stretch of the imagination.

Paul Waugh@paulwaugh
.@RoryStewartUK on @BBCr4today "Probably the strongest reason why this is the wrong thing to do, is that to deliver Brexit like this is to create a poison pill which for 40 years will divide this country straight down the middle.

"If you're going to deliver Brexit at all, try to do it legally, constitutionally, and with consent."

Esther Webber@estwebber
Stephen Kinnock says "there's a perfectly good deal on the shelf" in the form of the WA 😱😱😱

I don’t think the WA will come back either and was really surprised to hear it raised last night. But I have also learned through this to never say never.

PMK

I disagree the Tory party civil war is over. Most moderates MPs are still in the party. They will have to continually check their conscious and their balls over the next few weeks

If they support a hard-line approach and chucking out their former colleagues they are no longer moderates. They have proved they were bystanders not combatants in the civil war.

There are very few who are still on the government benches who have rebelled for a softer Brexit option. Most who have at some point have now left.

I think there is maybe a dozen who have vaguely stuck their heads above the parapet but they are not leaders of it.

Who are these mythical moderates and what will they do?

Try naming one or two for me, to demonstrate your point, cos I'm struggling for names.

Thanks red

All I want to do is scream the WA is NOT a deal.