Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

The Lords vote for their own leader - who actually has less power than the Speaker in the HoC - and the rest of the HoL also has a say. While the Government could change the dynamics of the HoL, it would take time - even with an authoritarian regime in the HoC.

So in the immediate future I don't see Fowler being replaced, but obviously longer terms, all bets are off

There is no new report, just the letter from Mark Carney which has some detail and updates on the previous November full report @DGRossetti. So hopefully they’ve read that...

Long-time lurker edging out of the shadows to ask if any knowledgeable Westminstenders knows what all the amendments are? Have been working today so not following it properly.

Sebastian Payne@SebastianePayne
Huh: Caroline Spelman won't lose the Tory whip despite voting for the Benn bill to stop no deal Brexit.

"Yesterday was being taken as confidence vote and had whipping consequences," said a No10 source.

Wonder what the 21 rebels think of that?

Just a note for watchers of Parliament channel.

The house is currently debating the committee stage of the bill, and so is not actually the House of Commons at all but a committe of said.

Accordingly the deputy speaker is not in the Speaker's chair but down the front in a clerk's place.

Next comes the report stage where amendments may be added, then third reading which if passed sends it off to their lordships, who go through the whole thing again. If they pass it, it goes to Queenie to sign it, and it becomes an Act of Parliament.

Caroline Spellman now gone so 22 Tory rebels.
HoLnow trying to get a ' guillotine' law through to limit time of reading and voting on the bill to get it through in time. This law hasn't been used for 400 years. HoL anti brexit lot doing good.

Has Caroline Spelman gone of her own accord, or were you just going by the numbers Sos?

Which MPs from which parties would make up a future parliament that would vote for this enabling act to abolish elections?

If I could tell the future, I wouldn't be here. Has no one any imagination any more. Has the internet finally done for that ?

mockers 32% could give the Tories a working majority
Possibly even 30% if the marginals split well for them

Soames was biting and shows the rebels are not just obstinate Remainers:

"I want to support this bill.
But before I do so, I want to make clear that I have always believed that the referendum result must be honoured.

And indeed I voted for the withdrawal agreement on every occasion it has been presented to the house,

which is more than can be said for the prime minister, the leader of the house and other members of the cabinet whose serial disloyalty has been such an inspiration to so many of us.

OUCH ! 😂

That "all-Ireland" food thing - is that the UK following EU regulatory alignment, Boris? Because you can fuck off otherwise.

DG Let's hope invading Ireland isn't a handy war to have. I suspect it's the easiest one to do.

mockers 32% could give the Tories a working majority
Possibly even 30% if the marginals split well for them

Scotland makes that less likely, but not impossible.

Working against this would be the electorate voting tactically for whichever remainer stood the best chance, and if not open pacts then sftly-softly deals between the parties to go easy in seats where there is a sitting remainer MP and not campaign too hard.

And now what we await are the new Tory candidates and how many of them are defrosted kippers.

Anyone interested in how the Lords work there is an excellent podcast in ‘The Times’
Red Box series very informational and gives both pros and cons of HOL.

I won’t press the matter, DGR, I often have a very active imagination - but I cannot see a realistic future Parliament where what you are proposing would be possible, whereas you clearly can, so I am interested to hear/(read) more of your explanation as to what you meant. Obviously you’ve no obligation to a stranger on the internet, I was just interested in your thinking if you were making serious suggestions 🤷🏻‍♀️

Robert Peston pointing out my careful what you wish for comments from yesterday - also actually Boris' point about HoC making doing a Deal impossible.

www.itv.com/news/2019-09-04/why-all-the-fuss-about-the-date-of-the-looming-general-election-asks-robert-peston/

Credit to Nicola for already having worked this out. However I suspect will also be enough Labour MPs to get 2/3 espec if rest abstain rather than voting against FTPA GE.

My understanding of the FTPA is that ⅔ of MPs have to vote for a GE

Does that mean 434 MPs ?

If Corbyn holds out for an extension to be brought back before a GE, then BJ certainly won't get ⅔ of MPs supporting him#
It all depends on Corbyn

apileofballyhoo I don't think there would be much objection to an All UK food standards backstop which would neatly sidestep border in the Irish Sea.

There are currently a lot of very marginal marginals. The headline after the last GE was TM losing her majority. But if you look more closely you’ll find that more seats than usual were neck and neck (with a majority of

Christopher Chope.
Bleurgh detestable awful man
Surely the people of Christchurch can do better than that?

Lots of Tory backbenchers in a 1922 Committee meeting with the PM now just cheered Edward Leigh and Damian Green for speaking up for the 21 rebels, and booed Dan Kawczynski for attacking them

Would this be the same 1922 committee that turned on May and ousted her despite her supposedly being "safe" until the end of this year, thereby leading the way for Boris to be appointed was going to say elected then

What. Do, They. Want?

Let's hope invading Ireland isn't a handy war to have. I suspect it's the easiest one to do Or invading Scotland if they have the temerity to ask for another referendum.

There are other options.

BJ could call a vote of no confidence in himself and vote against himself as PM, only a simple majority needed.

Similarly, a new bill repealing the FTPA or providing for a one-off GE could pass, assuming he can get the expelled ex-Tories to vote for it.

(Might've been a good idea not to chuck them out.)

.

No Deal is the worst possible outcome

.... but then we realise that absolute worst case is 5 years - maybe more - of a hard right Tory govt after No Deal, unconstrained by any EU laws on workers rights, consumer rights, the environment ...
savaging the poor, the vulnerable and any opposition

I refuse to respect any so-called "Lexiters" who think the death of the NHS & the welfare state
- and the deaths of the poor & vulnerable -
are "acceptable collateral damage"

all to stop Corbyn / Labour's policy of a PV ?

And they keep whingeing about the centre left btrayals of Corbyn - supporting 5+ years of a new hard right Tory govt is the worst ever betrayal

These hard right Tories are far worse than Thatcher ever was

"Christopher Chope. Bleurgh detestable awful man. Surely the people of Christchurch can do better than that?"

You don't know Chirstchurch. Chope is considered a dangerous pinko by the oldest electorate in the UK.

They're currently seething because they've been swallowed by the new super-council. Before that, one of their money-saving wheezes was to remove all the rubbish bins and replace them with signs telling people to take litter home or be fined.