Westminstenders: Drain The Swamp

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson lost his first vote by 27.

The Commons take control again, and Johnson is now, with his majority gone, is seeking an election.

Whilst the feeling might be one of victory there is a definite sting in the tail.

Johnson has purged the party of 'trouble makers', meaning any replacements after an election are hard liners. And they will be in safe seats. Possibly many of which will be careerists parachuted in.

The party has split. The civil war is over.

Parliament has just lost some of its very best minds in the process. That bodes ill for us all in the long term. The polarisation has just jacked up a level. The centre has fallen even more.

There are no more moderates.

Polling suggests that Johnson won't be blamed for any of this and that's significant.

Take note of this tweet

Douglas Carswell @Douglascarswell
Boris Vs the political Parasites. Guess who wins across suburban Britain?

The optics are not about what you or I are seeing. Nor about what any of the politicial pundits are seeing.

The Democrats and the Media failed to see Trump coming... And this is what now concerns me. His optics are not bad with his core and targets.

Will Johnson be able to have his election?

If yes, I fear the polls look good for Johnson. People want 'Brexit over with' and don't want another extension. They may or may not understand the ramifications of that.

If no, then what? Johnson can do anything with his numbers. Does that mean potentially two governments and the Queen stuck in the middle? Or does he limp on, with no intention of doing anything but take us over the cliff by counting down the clock?

Or something else?

The Brexit Party and Conservatives now seem to have formally united one way or another. They have aligned with current politics alike the divided Opposition parties.

Tonight the penny might have dropped with a few Labour MPs too. They want May's deal to return. Its the only deal there is, in the absence of a Johnson plan and a Labour / Opposition plan. Too little too late...

This isn't going away as an issue either. Stoking up anger against the rebel alliance is a long term project for the fascist right.

Is tonight’s result a victory? Yes, but my fear is its potential to be a Pyrrhic Victory.

The battle today may have been won, but Johnson still looks set to win...

Longterm decline of education then, cat? It is true that young people generally are more "liberal" and less sympathetic with fascist points of view. However, I also think that teaching of critical reading/thinking/analysis/response is woeful. (Not to fault teachers - I have plenty in my extended family - rather flawed educational policy and priorities, underfunding, social problems, and myriad other issues.) I believe that that lack of critical thinking feeds into the credulity with which many young people seem to regard propaganda that's disseminated via social media and elsewhere online. The savviest politicians know how to use that to their benefit. This includes disseminating a "doom and gloom" narrative.

I've been reading 'The Anatomy of Fascism' by Robert Paxton recently for my dissertation. In his view (Prof of History specialising in Vichy France & that era) the process to getting to power for Hitler and Mussolini looked like this:

1. establishment of extreme element in response to crisis situation

2. mainstream conservative forces ally with the extremists, thinking they can control them, in order to maintain power

3. extremists take over the structures and power base of mainstream conservatives

There were any number of Fascist parties in other countries in Europe, but they didn't succeed because either the moderates conservatives and moderate left united (UK - National Gvnt), or mainstream conservatives used the military to maintain control (Spain, Greece).

The key to Fascists getting to power is step 2 - when the powerful in the existing regime try to use them to prop up their power base when threatened.

Which seems to be the track we're on at the moment

Sorry, I did look for the Abbreviations thread and couldn’t find it.

Right calling people evil and selfish isn't helpful. It plays to the culture war.
...
If you alienate those who are indifferent and apathetic by calling them evil or self you drive them to the very thing you abhor.

^THIS

Some are sounding very contemptuous of the ordinary people living ordinary lives. Not all of them voted leave, are you as contemptuous of those who back your position?

I'm so sorry on their behalf that we don't all have the luxury of sitting on the internet all day without getting sacked, the luxury of being born into families with similar luxury back in the 70s and 80s when most struggled to put food on the table, or the time in the evening with kids to look after and social ties to keep up.

The rot starts at the top, blame the people abusing the information streams rather than the poor sods at the bottom who have no other choices. And actually the rot started years ago when the cost of living and acquiring assets in this country went sky high and wages started to drop.

Allington spot on - thank you for sharing

I'm sorry - I got irritated and snapped because if you'd scrolled down just a short way you'd have seen that the acronyms had already been explained by more than one person - including me. I should have been more patient.

So even if the acronym thread had been linked to early in thread, as it usually is, that would not have helped

I don't know, if I think about all my friends there seem to be no definining features that make some interested in politics and some not. Maybe it's as simple as personality?

I really don't get Tommy Robinson types...'actual' WW2 fascists, seemed to understandably hate it. Like my grandads, who both got conscripted in WW2 as teenagers. In all the time I knew him, my dads dad made it his mission to befriend anyone foreign/non white that moved into the village.

No , phpolly.

The whole 'young people are thick ... declining educational standards' is part of the culture war.

I, for one, am not falling for it.

It's a trap!!!!!

I think we’re probably all a tad snappy this morning.
My only consolation is that BoZo is probably feeling a whole lot worse.

Let's nail this idea that it's a lack of education. Himmler, Goering, Goebbels, and Heydrich were all educated men. Nor do Johnson and Rees-Mogg lack for education.

As the great Sister Rosetta Tharpe said,

You can go to university
You can go to school
But all that really makes you
Is an educated fool.
And That's All!

Signing in/placemarking.

Politics Live today has a good lineup on now incl Joanna Cherry vs Nigel Evans

Also YouGov just sent me the daily poll - questions were: Was it right to expel the rebels, should MPs vote for an election, and do you know who Dominic Cummings is/what he does. Interested to see the answers to those later!

cat but how about the weaponisation of social media by our "leaders" worldwide? Although I know one can make the argument that susceptibility to that is not generation-specific.

2) mainstream conservative forces ally with the extremists, thinking they can control them, in order to maintain power.

This was May's Government.

3) extremists take over the structures and power base of mainstream conservatives

Johnson and Rees-Mogg

Cwenthryth

How did you go about signing up to receive the daily poll you just mentioned, please?

From the Guardian just now:

Rees-Mogg's 'arrogant' speech cost government four extra votes, says Tory rebel

Turning back to Jacob Rees-Mogg, it has emerged that he single-handedly managed to push the size of the rebellion last night over the 20 mark. In an interview with the Today programme’s Ross Hawkins, Guto Bebb, one of the most prominent rebels, said that Rees-Mogg’s speech helped to persuade four MPs to join him in voting against the government. Bebb said:

There were at least four individuals who were still doubtful who changed their position to being supportive and voting with us on the back of Jacob’s performance. He was deemed to be arrogant, out of touch and I think the way in which he treated some of the interventions was a red rag to bull in many cases.

Mogg is getting most publicity this morning for his unusual posture on the Treasury bench. (See 6.37am.) Last night the government was, quite literally, flat on its back. But the picture has distracted attention from his speech which, even by Rees-Mogg’s standards, was unusually pompous, as well as peevish and at times offensive. You can read the highlights on last night’s blog here.

Nigel Evans 🤮

Peregrina similar from what I understand to the takeover of the mainstream US Republican Party by its Tea Party wing, which ultimately has led to Trump

Allingtin and Peregrina - Yes.

I think that is how serious this situation is.

And Ken Clarke, Ken Clarke, agrees with us.

Still following. Thank you all.

I'm assuming the rebels remain in Parliament still until a new election despite being expelled from the Conservative party?

Also, I think a new general election will bring a fresh opportunity to bring back remain on the table. I think there are many leavers who have realised that we are unlikely to get a good deal and no deal is too frightening and so now wish to remain.

Im guessing a new election will be treated like the referendum with leavers voting Conservatives/Brexit party and remainers voting LibDems/Labour (assuming Labour offer an option to remain). A new coalition govt will probably be a likely result.

Go Rory.
Tell Conservative voters what is really going on here.
Tell Leave voters.
And let's pray they listen.

Rory is on LCB now

Just a quick looong note as I'm all in and over and out today.

Re DP's meds and therefore someone else's meds.

From what i can gather from medical team, pharmacists, 2 charities... shortages are happening but it's not being listed very well. The authorities have been notified but yeah no one gives a fuck.

All we've been told is there is no date for a new shipment of his meds into the country. For months and months going into next year there's no shipment date.

Everyone is very sorry. Some tell me sorry with a lump in their throats it's all very human. I'm struggling to process and i'm all over the place. Its surreal. The stress has caused a flare for DP. It's hard to be the person who is in the group to be thrown first out the window while being told if it's meant to be you'll grow wings so don't worry.

He's angry with himself for being ill, he's angry at himself for not being ill with something more common, he's angry at himself for not dying and being a burden. I'm angry but in a very different way and it's most definitely not aimed at him.

All that's left in stock is scattered about in indivdual pharmacies across the country and there's no numbers on how much is out there.

The advice we've received is look abroad and pay for it. Obviously the long term implications for this exist. India has a wide market of generics so is cheaper. Finding an online pharmacist in India who delivers internationally is proving a challenge but that's what I'm up to today.

Morally I feel obliged to pay abroad, it's not ideal but what little stock there is left needs to go to patients who can't afford to do what we're doing.

Once I've found the yellow brick road of on line indian pharmacies that looks not suspicious and delivers internationally I will obviously post it!

And Ken Clarke, Ken Clarke, agrees with us.

And honestly, Ken Clarke and Nicholas Soames, who have Tory written through them like a stick of rock, being ousted from the party! It almost beggars belief. But upstarts like Leasdom and Priti Patel and a host of mediocrities are still in it!.

I do wonder what will happen in the various Conservative Associations up and down the Country. I drove past the local Tory Club last night, and I am pretty sure they own the building. If they are loyal to local conservatives and not the Johnson/Rees-Mogg faction, it could be interesting.

Matthew Goodwin on how Farage and the Brexit Party could deliver a Corbyn Government. However the underlying narrative is really the rationale behind why the Tories are being backed into No Deal.

unherd.com/2019/09/how-it-could-all-go-wrong-for-boris/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

Latest YouGov before yesterday had (iirc) Con 35% Bxt 14% Lab 25% and LibDem 20%.

Suspect result of last night and what comes next may be Con 40% Bxt 8% Lab 30% and LibDem 16%.

There is logic to voting Corbyn for Remain even if you loathe him. There is No way he will get an outright majority. That would mean a coalition with the SNP and LibDems to deliver a straight Revoke followed by Indyref2 followed by a GE. However, once Scotland goes England has a baked in Conservative / Brexit majority and Revoke / 2nd Ref would only make it worse.

However this is also why there is absolutely no logic for a Lexiter to vote Corbyn. As pp are oft tended to comment EU membership is a one-off but UK elections come and go. So by that logic vote Tory to neutralise Bxt Party, deliver Brexit and make them live with 5 years of consequences and then get a Labour majority for a socialist agenda.

(hasten to add this is NOT what most Lexiters I follow on twitter are saying - publicly at least. They are very much following the save Corbyn vote Labour line).