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Brexit

So Johnson has 30 days to come up with an alternative to the backstop......

757 replies

Bearbehind · 21/08/2019 19:33

This will be interesting to watch!

OP posts:
GrouchoMrx · 24/08/2019 23:54

Leavers are relying on the former colonies falling into line once again and meekly giving us the same 'favourable' trade deals we had when they were colonies and we were able to bleed them dry.

If not, we're well and truely scuppered.

Peregrina · 25/08/2019 09:10

I feel despair but it's made me feel I must make the effort to write to Dominic Grieve and Rory Stewart to tell them that I admire their stance and please carry on for the benefit of us all.

bellinisurge · 25/08/2019 09:27

My point @whyamidoingthis about Irish neutrality in WWII was in response to @MysteryTripAgain comment that "The end result was Germany defeated. Hence UK, France and Ireland maintained their freedom." Given that Ireland (the State) did not participate in WWII, it did not take the defeat of Germany to "maintain its freedom ".
I know that there were many Irish and Irish descent combatants in WWII (my family included several) and that this has been a complex issue in Ireland.
Which is a side issue to the utterly appropriate and unwavering support tbe EU has shown to Ireland over this increasingly nonsensical UK position.

MysteryTripAgain · 25/08/2019 10:08

Which is a side issue to the utterly appropriate and unwavering support tbe EU has shown to Ireland over this increasingly nonsensical UK position

What is the motive behind the support?

Genuine concern for GFA?, or

Achieving their objective of preventing Brexit?

Article 50 developed by EU to enable any member to leave the EU. Where does it say that neither ROI or UK can never leave the EU because of GFA?

EU are not a party to the GFA. So how can EU use GFA to prevent either ROI or UK leaving the EU?

An odd situation, but looking increasingly likely that GFA will result in a no deal.

To add to the conundrum Trimble, who was awarded Nobel Prize for development of GFA, thinks the suggested backstop goes against the GFA. So is it a no solution situation?

Dongdingdong · 25/08/2019 10:37

The backstop is intact, but BJ seems to have "accidentally" found himself in talks this week. If this doesn't convince you that (a) he's full of shit and (b) he's too chicken to leave without a deal, then I cannot help you.

That’s not quite how it went though is it?

The EU said they wouldn’t back down on the backstop. Boris said no talks until they do.

Then at the G7 summit Merkel did move an inch when she challenged Boris to come up with a workable solution - the implication being that if he is able to do that (and it’s a bloody massive ‘if’) then the EU might be prepared to shift its stance.

So Boris’s approach does at least appear to have made a chink in the EU’s armour. They’ve gone from a position of absolutely no further discussion on the matter to, ‘let’s see what you’ve got’. It’s going to be very interesting to see what solutions Boris now proposes.

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 11:07

@bellinisurge - I know that there were many Irish and Irish descent combatants in WWII

I was in a rush so didn't explain what I meant by partisan neutrality. I was referring to official policy. An interesting read about the time is Guests of the State. It's about allied and axis servicemen interned during the emergency. They were allowed out during the day and evening and had to be back for curfew. Escape was not acceptable while allowed out as it was seen as an abuse of hospitality. In fact, one RAF airman did escape and was sent back by the British authorities!

No allied servicemen were detained initially. They just headed north. This included an airman who went into a police station to make a phone call after he crashed in Ireland! They only started to detain allied service men after a German plane crashed and the crew were detained. De Velara (Taoiseach at the time) was scrupulous about maintaining equal neutrality so once Germans were detained, allied were also.

Things got a bit more complicated when the Americans declared war, due to the special relationship between Ireland and the US. In 1943, the allied detainees were moved to a separate camp and secretly freed while the germans were detained until the end of the war.

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 11:15

@MysteryTripAgain - Where does it say that neither ROI or UK can never leave the EU because of GFA?

The GFA does not prevent Ireland or the UK leaving the EU. However, as they have both signed an international peace treaty, they must do so in a way that complies with their obligations under that treaty.

Theresa May's red lines are the problem here, not A50 or the GFA.

To add to the conundrum Trimble, who was awarded Nobel Prize for development of GFA, thinks the suggested backstop goes against the GFA.

Trimble is a hard core unionist.

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 11:17

@Dongdingdong - Then at the G7 summit Merkel did move an inch when she challenged Boris to come up with a workable solution

No she didn't. The EU position has always been that if the UK comes up with a workable alternative, they will listen.

Dongdingdong · 25/08/2019 11:31

The EU position has always been that if the UK comes up with a workable alternative, they will listen.

This report from the Guardian appears to contradict you:

On Monday night Brussels sources once again ruled out any renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop. “There was a two and a half year negotiating process in which the EU compromised, including on the question of the backstop,” a well-informed source told the Guardian.

“The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation and the backstop is not open for change.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/19/eu-unconvinced-as-boris-johnson-sets-out-fresh-bid-to-remove-brexit-backstop

Namenic · 25/08/2019 11:58

@MysteryTripAgain - There is no solution. Can you square a circle? Maybe with the goods there is maybe an incomplete solution where all Irish and NI companies register and put online their goods in/out. But some stuff will get through - ie maybe chlorine washed chicken will be able to enter France.... dunno how happy they will be.

But how are you going to sort the freedom of movement? IRA don’t want a passport/ID check at NI/Irish border. Unionists don’t want a border in the Irish Sea. So how do you stop people from coming via Ireland, crossing and coming to UK?

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 12:02

@Dongdingdong - This report from the Guardian appears to contradict you

No it doesn't. The WA is not up for negotiation. However, the political declaration is, and always has been, up for negotiation if the UK come up with a workable solution. A workable solution to prevent a hard border means that the backstop will not need to be triggered.

I think you should have a look at what Merkel actually said, rather than the reports in the UK press. The reports are not particularly accurate.

S1naidSucks · 25/08/2019 12:06

But how are you going to sort the freedom of movement? IRA don’t want a passport/ID check at NI/Irish border. Unionists don’t want a border in the Irish Sea. So how do you stop people from coming via Ireland, crossing and coming to UK?

Shall we change the wording?

But how are you going to sort the freedom of movement? Irish don’t want a passport/ID check at NI/Irish border. UVF don’t want a border in the Irish Sea. So how do you stop people from coming via Ireland, crossing and coming to UK?

Is that offensive? Why are you assuming it’s just the IRA? I’m not in, nor do I support any terrorists, but as a Northern Irish person, I don’t want a border. Many of my friends, who consider themselves British, don’t want a border.

MysteryTripAgain · 25/08/2019 12:08

@Namenic

I don't see a solution either.

If UK leaves with no deal NI could become smuggling capital. All sorts of unsafe products could arrive in NI, cross into ROI and as you say onwards to anywhere in EU.

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 12:13

@S1naidSucks - well said. The assumption by many british that the only terrorists are IRA is frustrating enough . However, the apparant conflation of IRA and Irish by @Namenic is utterly offensive.

Mistigri · 25/08/2019 13:34

Then at the G7 summit Merkel did move an inch when she challenged Boris to come up with a workable solution - the implication being that if he is able to do that (and it’s a bloody massive ‘if’) then the EU might be prepared to shift its stance.

Do you speak German?

The opinion of my German-speaking acquaintances is that it was a wry humorous comment along the lines of "well, you've had three years to not find a solution, maybe you'll find one in the next 30 days".

If you only have one language and only read the British press you will have a very different view of this week versus someone who reads the French and German or Irish press.

I don't think the situation has changed: no talks without dropping the backstop was just Johnson being full of shit (as usual), because obviously the backstop is still there and he is talking.

Meanwhile the Europeans smiled politely (as usual) and told him to go away and come up with something new. Which he won't, because there is no alternative to the backstop (except the NI only backstop which the DUP don't want).

It's just possible that they will turn the backstop into a series of sectoral agreements that have the same effect, and because most of the hardline Brexiters have a reading age of about 11 that might just work. But I am still pretty much convinced that we are heading for another extension, once Johnson has manoeuvred the opposition into a position where they take the blame rather than him.

Namenic · 25/08/2019 13:50

Sorry about the offence. I don’t know many Irish people so have no idea if people want or don’t want a border. I don’t know Northern Irish people people but know that there are people who are very insistent at no border in the Irish sea

Namenic · 25/08/2019 13:56

I am aware that some people in NI want Brexit and would resort to extreme violence and some people who would like a united ireland and would resort to extreme violence too. I guess I was just worried about the extremes especially endangering safety of the majority. Sorry about the ignorance and offence.

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 14:12

@Namenic - I appreciate the apology. A very brief, and very general, explanation:

Brexit is really irrelevant in this. Unionists want NI to be part of the UK and so do not want to be treated differently to the rest of the UK. Hence the UK proposal of the UK wide backstop, rather than the originally suggested NI only backstop. The majority of unionists are not terrorists nor do they support violence but there are unionist (or loyalist) terrorist groups, such as the UVF, UDA etc. They may resort to violence if they believe the union is threatened. Many unionists are against the GFA as they believe it is a step towards a united Ireland. Unionists are less likely to refer to themselves as Irish but will call themselves Northern Irish and/or British.

Nationalists want a united Ireland. The majority of nationalists are not terrorists nor do they support violence but there are nationalist (or republican) terrorist groups, such as the IRA, INLA etc. They may resort to violence if they believe the GFA is threatened. Most nationalists are in favour of the GFA as they believe it recognises their rights and creates closer links to Ireland. Nationalists are less likely to refer to themselves as British but will call themselves Irish and/or Northern Irish.

Namenic · 25/08/2019 14:21

Thanks @whyamidoingthis - hopefully will save me causing offence in future discussions!

MysteryTripAgain · 25/08/2019 14:32

@whyamidoingthis

Interesting post. Particularly the comment that brexit is not really the issue.

Sounds like there is still a strong division on the island of Ireland as whether or not reunification should happen? It appears that ROI is more pro GFA and NI is more against GFA and Brexit has brought that into the limelight?

whyamidoingthis · 25/08/2019 14:53

@MysteryTripAgain - It appears that ROI is more pro GFA and NI is more against GFA and Brexit has brought that into the limelight?

I'm not sure why you're comparing NI and Ireland? My post was about NI only.

prettybird · 25/08/2019 15:22

NI voted for the GFA Confused

The only group in NI against the GFA and, not coincidentally, pro Leave were/are the DUP Hmm

They are not the majority - whatever their over inflated current importance in WM propping up a Conservative Government.

Oakandlove · 26/08/2019 04:05

@MysteryTripAgain

You must be very young and not have a clue about the GFA. Try repeating your crap to the mother of a murdered son.