Am I the only one?

[thrumylookingglass]

I have been reading with interest all the threads on this board. Am I the only who cannot believe the tone, content and the sheer catastrophe thinking about this issue? Reading threads about stockpiling and falling out with family and friends over this strikes me as strange. Historically, there a many, many more events that have had a humanitarian impact on the world ... Brexit is not one of these! There may, or may not, be an economic impact of Brexit, but will people die? Get killed? Be oppressed? There needs to be some perspective here.

@Helmetbymidnight I don't think some of them even believe this is the case (that we will suddenly drop all trade deals). I was talking to a leaver the other day who was saying that that is a myth so much so that the chief of the WTO had to come out and make a statement. I'm yet to find what he was referring to, maybe someone knows? He was saying that 'apparently' in the event of no deal everything will carry on as normal until gradually new trade agreements are put in place. This is not how I understand it but I'd like to know where they are getting this from. There's a lot of inaccurate information out there which makes it infuriating to debate.

I’d think a return to the troubles would be a humanitarian crisis and people will die in the fragile peace is undermined.
I think increasing poverty for many will cause ill health and death; mental health is affected by poverty.
Financial instability and poverty increase the suicide risk. Reduced income and unmanageable debt, unemployment, poor housing conditions, and other socioeconomic factors all contribute to high suicide rates.
Medicines stocks are already running low. There is a large Warehouse centre in Belgium where drugs are being stockpiled but it’s limited and things like contraception and MAP, HRT etc are quite low down the list - shortsighted perhaps but the argument is that beta blockers are more immediately necessary. Water treatment chemicals aren’t considered drugs so not include in the stockpile.
Trade agreements are laughable. We’ve one with the Faroe Islands.....
Never mind, we managed in the war, eh?

I have two family members who will die if there is a delay in receiving their medication. One slowly and rather painfully, one quickly and in an extremely distressing violent way. The second relative's consultants have spent the last 18 months putting things in place for continuity of medication. No medication for 1 day could be sufficient to mean he dies.

The people who are involved in Brexit prep in detail are not saying "it'll be fine". They are extremely worried about it. When they are worried and 1 day's lack of medication could kill my relative then yes I will be worried.

You aren't the only one. Lots of people presume it'll all be sorted out by the politicians and things will be similar to they are now, max extra couple of quid on the weekly shop, nothing much you'll notice.

Problem is, the Deal was supposed to be them sorting it all out so it would be fine, bit bumpy, but generally life wouldn't be noticeably different.

Parliament rejected it.

So that is the problem with no deal. It literally is no arrangements in place so that the EU dont just leave us with no food or medicine.

Johnson is banking on them saying "we cant let Britian end up in the shit." And negotiating a new deal quickly, problem is they've said they cant offer anything else without us changing where our red lines are. For what it's worth, friends living in the EU say their press seem to think Britian will blink first and just pass the deal or cancel Brexit.

I do feel sorry for anyone who relies on overseas produced medicines.

Add to that a polarisation of wealth and the great unwashed (aka Brexit voters) will take umbrage and riot about lack of public services and their luxuries. Meanwhile the affluent will use their Yen to import for personal use, pick their own crops and build higher fences. A fragmented society is unstable. Hate increases (as Farage intends) and we have riots and civil disturbances.

Never mind, we managed in the war, eh?

This sort of rubbish from Leavers angers me - it was one thing to suffer privation because we were fighting an evil regime. Quite another to suffer because Cameron wanted to appease a bunch of moneyed right wingers in his party.

MIL was in the War, she voted Remain.

I agree that you cannot compare the atrocities of the slave trade, genocide, or the holocaust to as yet mostly unknown consequences of Brexit.

I am optimistic that any medical issues will be dealt with, practically and ethically, by all/any countries involved. This is very naive.

I’m basically saying that sanity, calm, temperance and common sense and trusting basic humanitarian values should prevail! What’s wrong with that?

Nothing is wrong with that. In fact, I completely agree with you. It is for precisely these reasons that I think no deal should never be allowed to happen.

There is no point in saying it will all be alright because sanity and common sense should prevail when our politicians seem hell bent on a course of action which is completely insane and contrary to all common sense. Actions and decisions have consequences. Humanitarian values are not protected by people hoping that things will turn out ok. We have to actively champion those values.

A no deal Brexit will almost certainly plunge large numbers of people into poverty. Essential medicines may be unavailable for a period. The peace in Northern Ireland will be jeopardised. We don't have to go ahead with any of this, but our politicians are choosing to take us in this direction.

Do you really think that these are the actions of a sane government that is guided by common sense and humanitarian values? I don't.

I've got my dabber bellinisurge and TheElementsSong

Switzerland are NOT in the EU, they are one of the healthiest, wealthiest, cleanest, countries in the world, not the EU the world, the GDP is nearly doubled that of the UK, why didn’t they join the EU?

They didn't run up huge debt during WW2, had a banking system that allowed corrupt money from around the world to be hidden, have no real defence spending and have grown up alongside the EEC/EU as that organisation matured, taking adv of the best bits and staying away from the parts they don't like.
It also has a tiny well educated population, with nothing like the post industrial social problems the UK has.

Switzerland also has many bilateral treaties with the EU in place, though it appears not is all so cosy, esp over stock market access.

The UK leaving the EU overnight, with nothing in its place, is not going to mean the UK becomes Switzerland, not now, not ever.

For someone who lived in switzerland, you don't seem to know much about its relationship with the EU.

Sci-fi rules - Wow there's an awful lot of catastrophising in your post.

Common sense was why there was a 2 year exit period after triggering article 50. The politicians first drawing up the treaty realised it would take time to sort all these details out, deals would have to be made, legislation passed, 2 years for a transition period seemed sensible.

We just pissed about for 2 years, arguing amongst ourselves, trying to get an unrealistic deal and then rejecting the deal we negotiated with the EU.

The EU have spent over 2 years talking to us so we didn't have to face this, then another couple of extensions so we could have more time. They've said they'd be open to another extension if we aren't ready to go at the end of October.

We are being the dicks about this. But I'm sure the Tories and Bexit Party will blame the negative effects of no deal on the nasty EU refusing to completely change how they operate to accommodate a country that's leaving...

Amongst the many things that Tusk has said that I agree with, the two that stand out are,

"There is a special place in hell for those that promoted Brexit without even the sketch of a plan"

and, on announcing the extension to the end of October,

"Please don't waste [the extra time] it"

He spoke the absolute truth in the first statement and the UK politicians (in particular the Conservative Party) have ignored the advice in the second and spent the time fannying around

The OP said that climatic change was a far worse threat. In some ways that may be true long term but unfortunately many of the arch brexiteers, good libertarians that they are, are also climate change deniers - good debate on Twitter about this yesterday.

www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-told-to-release-secret-no-deal-breixit-doomsday-memo-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

brexiteers three years ago: its going to be brilliant- we won! woop! get over it.

brexiteers now: its not quite a disaster. yet. we dont know anything yet. it might not be v bad.

Brexiteers three years ago: We won! It's all going to be brilliant!
Brexiteers now: Well, there are some things that are much worse than Brexit, so stop complaining.

I resent being labelled. It's so divisive.

I'm a "don't want our lives to become shit"-er

Brexit is bringing a recession. Because deal or no deal, the terms are worse than they are now. The Tories are telling us 'it will all be fine (or better) in 5 years". Based on unicorns and dreams. And probably dreamt up by the same marketing department who came up with 5 a day. Because people like the number 5

And what about the people who become jobless/homeless/sicker/die in the interim years before this miraculous recovery? Just their bad luck? Collateral damage? Not good enough.

There may, or may not, be an economic impact of Brexit, but will people die? Get killed? Be oppressed? There needs to be some perspective here.

The thing is, the answer to these questions may actually prove to be yes. If we leave with no deal, all of these things could happen.

We know that Brexit could cause mass shortages of medicine. Will that cause deaths? It's possible.

We know that a no deal Brexit would harm UK security.

We know that leaving the EU means leaving protective legislation on workers rights (things like the working time directive and the pregnant workers directive) and health and safety legislation. That means we will be dependent on our government to uphold these rights. We know from history that the Tories are very poor when it comes to prioritising workers' rights over company profits. Do you trust them with this?

I think you are the one lacking perspective. These things may not come to pass. But there is every possibility they will. You're naive in the extreme not to see it.

I’m simply being honest that I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion. Surely this is better?

If this is true then why don't you bloody educate yourself?! If you have mumsnet you have google.

I think Brexit will be a crisis and then slower but long term decline.
Its come on top of cuts to public services that are already having a long term impact. Boris johnson is promising the country massive funding injections when apparently there is no money. The civil service is planning to massively increase their numbers to cope with brexit and that in itself has to ge funded. At the same time tax revenues have declined considerably (see city of london) and will continue to do so. We were relatively prepared for any financial downturn or risk compared to other countries due to measure put in place following 2008. This is no longer the case.
On top of this funding for education is at crisis point and this risks our long term future as a country. On top of this, I believe we have gone too far with austerity (which is an ideology not an economic theory). Its been an experiment to see how far we can go before we break the country but it went too far and broke us and we will be suffering the consequences for years to come. Then we added Brexit to the mix. It's not a natural disaster, we wilfully chose to do this. Imagine during ww2, sitting in a bomb shelter knowing just over half the people in there chose this option.
Austerity is really the cause of knife crime. Environmental factor turn on certain Genes. The ones for impulsivity and aggression are turned on by childhood adversity. Add to the fractured society, low social capital etc then people join gangs to get belonging.
On a personal note, my dh relies on medication. He can't take generics. Last time we had an issue he was out of work for a year, recovering. I'm self employed. We survived just but depleted our savings.
I have very little sympathy for people who say we are going to survive. My parents lived and fought through ww2 and I have no rose tinted spectacles.

And just remember that people like Steve Bannon actively want this and have been working towards making it happen. Trying to make the biggest crisis ever (see Strauss and Howe Generational Theory). People should be asking themselves why.

Sorry that's a bit incoherent. I'm cross.
My point is we were just coming out of austerity then the country chose to make it worse, by choosing Brexit.

From Brexit to Brecession.

@thrumylookingglass

I'm a bit late to this jolly party, but I'd just like to refer back to this comment of yours:
I agree that any deal/no deal/negotiations need to address issues with the supply of critical medications.
(Fri 16-Aug-19 21:52:21)

No deal means no negotiations.
No issues addressed.
Hence the cliff edge/car crash metaphors.
Before falling off a cliff, you can't negotiate a parachute or a soft mattress below.
Before a car crash you can't ask for extra time because now you think a seatbelt was a good idea.

Do you see why people are "catastrophising" and being "negative" and not trusting to humanitarianism? Especially when things are in the hands of politicians who have clearly failed to explain things to the general public, leaving them convinced that there is time to negotiate when Pmt has 22 working days to go and the country is run by an acknowledged incompetent with a veneer of erudition.