What would need to happen for you to quantify Brexit as a success and in what timescale ?

[frumpety]

I have said that I would apologise if Brexit is marvellous. Expectations have now been managed to such a low bar and the timescale has been extended into the next century by some leavers. Will I get the opportunity to apologise in the next 30 years ?

So how come if the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world have so many people been left disenfranchised / left behind/ struggled with infrastructure issues ?

The quick answer to that is that many other Countries have much bigger problems than UK. I have been fortunate enough to work in over 20 Countries outside UK and seen first hand.

Whilst UK is 5th largest, there is still a big divide between North and South and the have and have nots.

USA, China, India and Japan will always have stronger economies than UK due to their vast populations. So at best UK could only be 5th in the World

We have achieved that status whilst benefitting from being a member of the EU, are you suggesting the UK will climb up to 3rd or 4th place once out of the EU ?

In 1960 UK was 4th largest Economy behind; USA, Soviet Union and West Germany.

In 1965 UK was 5th largest Economy behind; USA, Soviet Union, West Germany and France.

In 1975 UK was 6th largest Economy behind; USA, Soviet Union, Japan, West Germany, and France. Japan by getting themselves organized pushed both Germany and France down the list.

Between 1975 and 2015 UK has fluctuated between 4th,5th and 6th position. Take 5th as average and that is lower than the 4th position in 1960, 15 years before UK became an EU member.

Dilution is the explanation. As the EU expanded an accepted Countries who were nowhere near as developed the stronger Countries ended up subsidizing them at thei cost.

And we could achieve most of that staying in the EU and running the country better.

Can't convince myself that 10 countries paying into the EU while 18 countries take out is a good deal for the 10 that pay in.

The expansion of the EU was heartily championed by a member nation of the EU, damn, I forget which it was 🤔 might have had a “U” and “K” in the name. Anybody help me out?

It looks like the UK is 7th largest economy according to GDP rankings in 2019 , and 26th in the GDP per capita rankings. We were 5th in GDP rankings , cant for the life of me think what might have caused the drop ?

The expansion of the EU was heartily championed by a member nation of the EU, damn, I forget which it was 🤔 might have had a “U” and “K” in the name

Under Blair I remember. Open the doors for cheap labour I think was the strategy. Also remember Labour acknowledging that they got it wrong.

Whilst UK is 5th largest, there is still a big divide between North and South and the have and have nots.

Why ?

We were 5th in GDP rankings , cant for the life of me think what might have caused the drop ?

India's GDP will soon displace that of, Germany, France and UK. So moving down a place in the list was always going to happen.

Under Blair I remember.

Oh, was it us who pushed for expansion? I could have sworn that the narrative was that ghastly spectre of EU expansion was imposed by “them” (the EU) upon poor helpless “us,” as though we were not part of them

Under Blair I remember. Open the doors for cheap labour I think was the strategy. Also remember Labour acknowledging that they got it wrong.

The conservatives have been in power for 9 years now , what have they done to change the immigration system inline with other EU countries ?

Two places in one year Port

If racism if the key factor then not only must Scotland, Wales and NI have left the EU, but anyone who has dark skin must have been deported from England.

Erm...judging by the leavers I know, it's not just about the dark skin. They won't be satisfied until all the Polish food is gone from Tesco. And they certainly don't want to be hearing anyone speaking Romanian on the Ashburton bus.

Two places in one year Port

One due to India and one due to France. France GDP boosted by stronger Euro I guess.

Either way UK is lower in World GDP now than in 1960 before they joined the EU. So where is the economic advantage of being an EU member unless you are a net taker.

I will apologise to everyone loudly and proudly if it stops being shit after a month and starts being fab in time for Christmas. Small price to pay for being wrong.

It won't be about size of the economy - why do we need to be a big economy? People live perfectly happily in smaller economies which are not in the middle of the world stage. Fairer conditions and opportunities for all will help soften the blow and will heal the rift, but importantly, they do not depend on being in or out of the EU. There will have to be a decisive event for people to say "it was a good thing after all" and the only thing I can think of is if the EU handles the next recession far worse than the UK does and fault lines in the construct are revealed.

Because we have a comparatively large population @MeganBacon . Ffs.

France GDP boosted by stronger Euro I guess.

Interesting take. The Euro isn't really stronger (except against the pound). The correct take is "U.K. GDP depressed by Sterling weakness".

why do we need to be a big economy? People live perfectly happily in smaller economies which are not in the middle of the world stage

Oh my word. Really hard not to use the S word.

But I will restrain myself and observe that there is no correlation between size of economy and equality. Smaller economies with a lower per capita GDP tend to have greater income inequality.

OK that was carelessly worded. What I mean is it won't be deemed a success or failure because GDP growth is above or below what it would have been because there are too many other factors for this to matter and it's not impactful enough. There will have to be an "event" for people to decisively say it was a good thing, e.g. failure of Italian banks or something similar.

The correct take is "U.K. GDP depressed by Sterling weakness"

Which can change significantly over time.

Exchange rates effect the monetary value of trade, but not the quantity.

I didn't vote in the ref as I really couldn't decide but the leavers I know will count Brexit as a success if a points style immigration system is introduced to take effect the day that we leave.

Hi Port surely if sterling is weak we should be able to export more as we are cheaper? Isn’t this part of the reason China has devalued its currency in an attempt to circumvent Trumps tariffs?

To Basilpots

Yes to both questions

why do we need to be a big economy? People live perfectly happily in smaller economies which are not in the middle of the world stage

Well yes, but this isn't what the people who want to turn the clock back to the days of Empire want to hear. We could be perfectly happy if we accepted that we were a medium sized country whose days of ruling the world were well behind us, and got on with trying to make life good for all 65 million of us now.