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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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TheABC · 07/08/2019 15:49

Boris is truly the gift that keeps on giving and it's only one week into August...

howabout · 07/08/2019 15:53

The Times Article is a puff piece. It is predicated on a comment JMcD made in Iain Dale's Edinburgh Fringe show. There is a Big difference between saying Labour would not stand in the way of Indyref 2 and actually using it as the basis of a pact. It is also an impossible position for the LibDems to follow without losing half of Jo Swinson's constituency votes to the Conservatives.

There are at least 14 SNP / Labour marginals. This has the hallmarks of a non aggression pact to stop the Tories coming through the middle. It may also help the Labour North of England vote who are sympathetic to Indy either because they are Remain and want Scotland to have the option of exit or because they are Brexit and see the logic of Out/Out. Very different optics from 2015 and fear of being Ed dictated to by Nippy.

howabout · 07/08/2019 15:56

Yep English Independence is indeed a "thing" among Brexiters and so another reason why the change of tack helps Labour in England.

woman19 · 07/08/2019 15:59

I think you'll get it quicker if you rebrand it "English independence

Someone who self identified as a Labour party spokesman got in a tangle on the Sky politics programme this morning.

He attacked Scottish Nationalism, because he claimed labour is an internationalist organisation and against nationalism, while defending the english nationalist 'brexit'.

NS must have the patience of a saint

Do you know Janey Godley hazard ?

lonelyplanetmum · 07/08/2019 16:00

At first we bought Chicken imported from Brazil but then my 7 year old started to sprout breasts

"Take back control of our food regs-vote Brexit so your children can have access to less regulated meat." --

Feels great -this giving sovereignty to the ERG lark.

woman19 · 07/08/2019 16:06

I will never take food safety for granted
"Control the oil, control the countries.
Control the food, control the people." HKissinger

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 16:06

Since Brexit is happening - whatever happens - the best way to be positive about it, would be to try and get behind it and steer it, rather than be steamrollered in front of it trying to stop it Hmm

So not only English independence, but an entirely new ground-up constitution and political framework for England, Scotland, Wales, NI and their regions might be a good starting place.

One of the assumptions the likes of Boris, Cummings, Gove etc have made is that after Brexit, they'll still have the same train set to play with.

We are being told daily we are getting Brexit, then what better way to pay those bastards back than by undermining that assumption,. embracing Brexit, and using it as a clarion call for a true revolution in the UKs political establishments ?

Is that positive enough ? (Although I don't know we have enough wine for me to keep it up every day).

LouiseCollins28 · 07/08/2019 16:16

How sure are you about the optics being different? Scottish Labour viewed as little more than a "branch office" by UK Labour HQ.

A new independence referendum opportunity for Scotland as part of an arrangement to sustain a future Labour government? Looks pretty much like the Labour/SNP pact situation that Ed Miliband never fully managed to quash in 2015.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/08/2019 16:18

I'm distracted with summer school holiday times but take it everyone has seen this...

"Britain has no leverage. Britain is desperate. Britain has nothing else': Trump will exploit ( the UK in trade talks, former US treasury secretary says"

Also why is Raab dealing with our on going trade ? He's foreign sec. Shouldn't it be Liz Truss? Not that she's any better it appears she's already in hock to the dark money lot anyway.

www.businessinsider.com/larry-summers-us-will-exploit-uk-in-post-brexit-trade-talks-2019-8?r=US&IR=T

probstimeforanewname · 07/08/2019 16:19

One of the assumptions the likes of Boris, Cummings, Gove etc have made is that after Brexit, they'll still have the same train set to play with

I guess that explains why I wonder why Boris would want to be PM of a country he knows full well will be broken after a no deal Brexit. NI will join Ireland (or even go its own way). Scotland will go its own way (or join up with NI). Wales could join Scotland Ireland and/or NI or any combination of any, I suppose.

The assumption if Scotland dissolved the Union that NI would stay with England has always surprised me a bit. I would have thought there were more synergies between NI and Scotland than between NI and England.

LouiseCollins28 · 07/08/2019 16:19

Great stuff DGR, kudos to you!

As a kick off, I'm up for an English Parliament, based away from London, who's signing up for that?

Hazardtired · 07/08/2019 16:20

no woman she's very chuckle inducing - thanks Grin

probstimeforanewname · 07/08/2019 16:21

NI joining Ireland depends on Ireland actually wanting that of course - something that is always forgotten I think - Ireland has to want reunification with NI, not just the other way round. Even more so if Wales said can we leave England and join you please?

lonelyplanetmum · 07/08/2019 16:22

Sorry if I'm not being positive.

(I can just about get behind a new political framework for England, Scotland, Wales, NI and their regions especially if London can be separated off to operate more internationally and as part of the EU. Is that positive enough. )

RedToothBrush · 07/08/2019 16:38

Is business ready for no deal?

And the answer is 'No' from a majority of every group...

Including cons and leavers

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
Westminstenders: Promises, promises
OP posts:
DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 16:41

As a kick off, I'm up for an English Parliament, based away from London, who's signing up for that?

I would. Somewhere like (say) Birmingham - much more accessible for more people - including from the SW. Would (ironically) make a case for HS2 Grin

Remainers have been on the back foot too long. We need to push forwards and force the Brexiteers to be negative for a change. Let them have to say "that won't work" and then slate them for not believing and talking Brexit down.

They really don't like it. Especially having to say "but Brexit wasn't about improving the UK". Which (give 'em enough rope) they will say.

(Goes off whistling).

Justaboutdone · 07/08/2019 16:44

I’ll 2nd Birmingham.

I think the Midlands is often forgotten about in the North / South divide.

woman19 · 07/08/2019 16:44

Smile Hazard She's great.

Is business ready for no deal

From today's Victoria Derbyshire programme.

@BestForBritain
Three SME owners react to the possibility of disorderly no-deal Brexit: One (food) bursts out laughing, another (haulage) is apoplectic, a third (gifting) whose business won't be impacted, still can't see an upside.

twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1159042577636532225

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 16:49

"what is the difference between a Hard Border on Island of Ireland and down the Irish Sea? "

Obvious
One border runs for 500 km with 200+ crossings, runs across farms and homes ....
The NI border is impossible to make secure
The British Army found that during the Troubles)

A sea border with half a dozen ports to check
Comparatively easy with current technology

No magic tech required.

The other big reason:
because Ireland is an EU member and unless Ireland blinks,
the Uk will not even get emergency minideals;the EU will not even start negotiations on a future trade deal

Stop thinking of this as 2 equals dealing
The 2 sides aren't remotely equal

Strange how people accept this when the Uk negotiates with the US, Hmm but not when negotiating with the EU, which will still be the world's #2 trade bloc even after Brexit

The UK will suffer an order of magnitude more than the EU

No E27 govt is making emergency plans for food, medicines, water purification chemical, nuclear plant parts
and it is the UK that will see its JIT manufacturing hit by Channel delays

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 16:52

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/07/uk-train-operators-pull-out-interrail-brexit-eurail?

European travellers will not, however, be able to visit the UK as part of their Interrail adventures. Instead they will have the option of buying BritRail passes offering unlimited train travel across England, Scotland and Wales, but for roughly the same price as the current Interrail passes that cover the whole continent, including the UK.

A one-month BritRail pass costs €605 (£557) for adults and €363 for those 25 and under. A one-month Interrail pass costs €603 for adults and €464 for those aged 12 to 27.

What's better value for potential tourists 🤔 1 country or over 20 🤔 it's a really tough conundrum.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 16:53

re the EU and free trade:

The EU is the most integrated trade bloc in the world, with frictionless trade between members
and has free trade deals covering about 70 other countries

However, the UK loses all EU benefits when it leaves
- I don't know why this is so difficult for so many Brexiters- like Hannan - to grasp

tobee · 07/08/2019 16:55

Thanks for the Damian Collins update @yolofish ,

Incidentally, I've always thought Damian Collins looks like a Ricky Gervais character.

Just me then.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 16:57

Maybe when BJ turns on his Keynsian Magic Money Tap,
he'll invest in and subsidise public transport as most other European countries have done

UK public transport, especially rail, is yet another example of ROB (Rip-Off Britain)

DGRossetti · 07/08/2019 16:58

I wonder if there's such a thing as "The Samson Syndrome", where men (let's be honest here) get to a certain age and are willing to bring the whole temple down on themselves just because ?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/08/2019 17:12

Some Brexiters, e.g. hedgefunder Crispin Odey, have become richer since the 2016 ref, but for ordinary plebs ...Project Fear ?

https://www.businessinsider.com/price-of-brexit-66-billion-recession-2019-4?

•	<span class="italic"><strong>Brexit has cost the UK economy £66 billion ($86 billion) so far,</strong></span> <span class="italic">according to S&P Global Ratings.</span>

•	Brexit triggered a decline of the pound, an increase in inflation, the erosion of household spending power, a decline in house prices, and weak exports, S&P says.

•	<span class="italic">The United Kingdom is now teetering at the brink of a new recession:</span>

Economic data published last week show UK GDP growth may have slipped to 0%.
....
The lost £66 billion implies that the country is £1,000 poorer, per person, on average, than it would have been had the vote never taken place.