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Brexit

To be terrified of no deal Brexit

655 replies

elprup · 29/07/2019 22:29

Having just watched the headlines, it really does seem that Boris is hellbent on taking us out with no deal. The fact he’s thrown down the gauntlet to the EU stating that he won’t come to the table unless they drop the backstop - well of course they’re not going to do that, and Boris won’t back down, so we will be leaving with no deal.

What do you think will be the repercussions of this? I’m terrified I’m going to lose my job and my home. If I’m worried then I can’t imagine what people reliant on various meds are going through.

I think I might stop watching the news as it just makes me anxious.

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CoteDAzur · 30/07/2019 10:47

"The pound will tank just like it did after the referendum result. It will rally again. You never hear a word when it rallies!"

Your layman's understanding of currency markets seems to be that it's all a silly game where sometimes GBP goes down but will surely come back up and none of it has any RL effect anyway.

You are wrong.

Here is the graph of GBP/USD. As you can see, it was about 1.70 in 2014, then 1.50 right before the referendum and then dove off a cliff when the majority voted for Brexit. It rallied for a while when it looked like the UK got its act together but it's now back at 1.21.

The effects of this collapse of the currency are numerous and nothing short of catastrophic. GBP lost 25% of its value since Brexit referendum. This means 25% higher cost of oil & gas, which is a major cost item for companies as well as people. (If this price rise isn't being reflected directly to your bills, that difference is coming out of your taxes).

It also means that all your imports are now much more expensive, pushing prices up by 20-25% on everything imported into the UK. This affects not just your medicine and tomatoes, but also all materials used by UK industries, clothes you buy from India & Turkey, etc. It means your companies will struggle to make profits and cut costs (less investments, lay offs, etc) and try to raise their own prices, which will mean inflation for you, the consumer whose wages will not increase in line with these price hikes. That means you will be poorer.

"But the UK is no longer dependent on industrial production. Most of our economy is services", you would say if you knew this subject better. Brexit delivers an even harder blow to the financial services industry, which serves EU countries through passporting deals. Those will be void upon no-deal Brexit and those service companies will close UK operations or suffer massive revenue losses & job cuts.

As for the City - London surpassed NY some years ago and became the world's #1 financial center, on the back of its unique position of being an Anglophone, cosmopolitan EU city where all corporations as well as banks liked to base their EU headquarters. London also enjoyed the position of EUR currency operations. That is no longer the case and we have already started seeing large scale layoffs as HQs are being moved to mainland Europe. Passporting problems will also severely affect UK banks and consulting services and you will see those companies shrink their London operations & personnel.

The fall in GBP is predicting these shocks to UK economy, and that even before the political ineptitude and uncertainty over N Ireland.

Those of us with zero understanding of all this fallout should educate themselves a little before declaring that all will be fine and GBP falling doesn't mean a thing.

To be terrified of no deal Brexit
mummmy2017 · 30/07/2019 10:48

Lots of posters say they have a second passport.
If the UK is so bad why are you still staying?

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 10:51

Maybe because they have jobs, homes, lives here? Elderly relatives friends, children settled in schools?
Maybe they love the UK just not what is happening to it now?
Ffs. Not that hard to imagine is it?

Janista · 30/07/2019 10:57

Currency weakness is a boon for exporters. Having an overvalued currency is not a good thing for competitiveness

bellinisurge · 30/07/2019 10:58

@mummmy2017 , ask @Janista that question in reverse. They live in Australia.

Justaboutdone · 30/07/2019 10:59

@Janista and it’s not like the UK has to import any raw materials or anything ..............

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 11:00

And where do you suggest we export our goods to exactly after 31 October?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/30/stop-playing-russian-roulette-sheep-industry-johnson-told

Mass slaughter of lambs on the cards. One of many knock on effects.

Justaboutdone · 30/07/2019 11:05

Birmingham is such a diverse city. It’s what makes it the city it is and whilst all the work is a bit of a pain it is exciting seeing it change. We don’t go in very often so really notice it when we do.

Sitting in centenary square recently I got the chance to speak to people I wouldn’t normally 😀

Justaboutdone · 30/07/2019 11:05

Wrong thread Grin

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 11:13

@mummmy2017 and a lot of people will be trapped financially. The pound has tanked. House prices have stalled. Making a move to another country suddenly much harder.
It's not a simple thing. And unfortunately thinking that things are simple is what has got us into this mess.

SummerSeasoning · 30/07/2019 11:16

Stopping watching too much news is good for my mental health.

I still manage to stay informed of the bigger or relevant stuff via my family and friends.

Bluntness100 · 30/07/2019 11:17

Luckily we sold our home and are renting

Eh? No deal will cause lots of issues, but not owning a home and being in rented doesn't make you lucky in this scenario.

Cloudtree · 30/07/2019 11:23

I was also confused by that. Being in rented is not generally a good thing in this situation.

twofingerstoEverything · 30/07/2019 11:37

mummy Lots of posters say they have a second passport. If the UK is so bad why are you still staying?
I can get an Irish passport, so why haven't I gone? My DC is a young adult who still lives at home and needs support. They are NOT eligible for an Irish passport. Shall I leave them behind?
I am 4 years away from retirement. Shall I just fuck off and leave my secure job and screw the repercussions for my pension?
Shall I put my house on the market now when Brexit uncertainty is making it all but impossible to sell anything? My colleague's house has been on the market for 10 months. People aren't viewing; they are being cautious because they do not know WTF is happening.
I am not wealthy enough to move to another country without these things being major drivers in any decision I might make about my future.
I am really sick of your over-simplistic drivel on these threads, particularly your nonsense about voting without considering how leaving the EU might work in practice and putting your trust in politicians to find a way to conjure up the unicorns you voted for...

bellinisurge · 30/07/2019 11:41

"go back to your own country " is classic racist bullshit. I presume you don't mean that @mummmy2017 because Leave supporters, particularly No Dealers, are not racist. No they are not. At all.

mummmy2017 · 30/07/2019 11:51

No, not a go back comment.
As people have lived through the boom times, profited and grown Rich, maybe they should think of those who never got these advantages, who voted and see only the same old in front of them.
Why do I need to expand my views, when what I feel seems to happen.

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 11:52

So you're assuming that all Remainers are rich people? Why?
And the reason people kept seeing the Same Old was not the EU, we've had years of vicious austerity. Although that's going to look like a picnic compared to what's going to come if we do crash out.

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 11:53

And I for one did think of those who never had advantages. That's why I didn't vote Tory.

probstimeforanewname · 30/07/2019 11:55

No deal will cause lots of issues, but not owning a home and being in rented doesn't make you lucky in this scenario

I suppose it means you can make a hasty Brexit of your own if you don't have to sell a house. You are more mobile.

bellinisurge · 30/07/2019 11:56

Utterly naive to think only people with money voted Remain. Utterly foolish childish nonsense. If only it were that fucking simple.

twofingerstoEverything · 30/07/2019 12:00

As people have lived through the boom times, profited and grown Rich
I lived through boom times but failed to profit and grow rich. My bad. Hmm

Cyclemad222 · 30/07/2019 12:00

I just don't believe any politician would be stupid enough to proceed with no deal. It would write off their party forever.

Johnson has no principles, he flipped on EU before and will at the last minute say its better to stay. Either that or parliament will find a way to stop it.

The whole thing is so damaging and pointless.

mummmy2017 · 30/07/2019 12:03

Well I just know loads of the people complaining the most on this thread have admitted to owning a 2nd passport, are applying for this one, or they do own a house and so self interest seems to be a motivational factor.

MaxNormal · 30/07/2019 12:10

Having a second passport doesn't make you rich Grin
Mine is South African, that helps me precisely bugger all.

cherin · 30/07/2019 12:20

But even if you have another citizenship, if your life is here, your ties are here, your savings, your job...do you think it’s easy? We did the move already, to come and settle here. Many don’t like it, but we felt for more than a decade that we belonged here...we have a flat, we have pension funds, we have kids in school that think and dream in English. We have every reason to be upset because this is not the U.K. we moved to, not th country we decided to take as second nationality. We feel the absurdity of the situation and the pain as if we were British. The fact that we could, potentially, bugger off and have a place to stay in our native country is reassuring (in a last resort kind of way) for us personally, but still not enough to make us forget everybody else around us