To be terrified of no deal Brexit

[elprup]

Having just watched the headlines, it really does seem that Boris is hellbent on taking us out with no deal. The fact he’s thrown down the gauntlet to the EU stating that he won’t come to the table unless they drop the backstop - well of course they’re not going to do that, and Boris won’t back down, so we will be leaving with no deal.

What do you think will be the repercussions of this? I’m terrified I’m going to lose my job and my home. If I’m worried then I can’t imagine what people reliant on various meds are going through.

I think I might stop watching the news as it just makes me anxious.

And if you are telling me that an NI only backstop wouldn't get through Parliament (not an all UK one which is what WA said), I would be very surprised

If it is that easy to change the WA and get both Brussels and UK MPs agreement why not just do it?

@Tullow2016 , yes, because all tbe Irish Descent people in Congress on both sides of the house will ratify a trade deal made in tbe UK's interest.
Tbe Democrat ones won't on principle and tbe Republican ones , if they care more about trade over history, will want one that is for the maximum benefit to the US not the UK.

a Prime Minister who is unelected,

Which indeed Johnson cricitised when it was Gordon Brown, but now it's him - well he probably will try to get an election through as soon as he can.

We need to be a bit careful with this argument, because we don't have a Presidential system - but when the leadership has changed in the past - Thatcher to Major, Blair to Brown, the parties have had comfortable majorities so the populace could be said to be happy with what the Government was doing in their name. It even applied to Cameron/May although the majority wasn't comfortable. It does not apply to Johnson. Let's hope he manages to piss off the DUP and loses such majority he has at a stroke.

"If it is that easy to change the WA and get both Brussels and UK MPs agreement why not just do it?"
Tbe EU offered what I am suggesting but our Red Lines blocked it

Then Blair chose not to use the powers we had to curtail the number of E European immigrants

Because Eastern Europeans were prepared to work in Western Europe for the minimum wages that were on offer by; UK, Germany, France....

In the short term it was a boost to the profitability of UK Companies.

Hope you have never driven a Japanese car in the UK

What like all those Japanese cars made in Sunderland ?

Rightly or wrongly it is money that talks in the business world.

Why is Johnson currently shitting all over business then?

So why is Trump blaming the EU trade deal for not being able to successfully trade with the UK before now

As a member of the EU the UK is not entitled to make trade deals, particularly free trade deals, direct with other Countries. Any such deal will be negotiated by EU.

EU trade rules do not cancel WTO as demonstrated that EU has around 70 trade deals with countries outside the EU. Basic principle of WTO is parity of trading in terms of tariffs.

Two countries trading on WTO terms must offer the same terms to other who are using WTO.

So why is Trump blaming the EU trade deal for not being able to successfully trade with the UK before now

Because he's Trump - he opens his big mouth and blabs the first thing that comes out of it.

Any big change can be disruptive.

Brexit is not about the next few weeks and the weeks after October, it's about the next 100 years and the country's strategic direction.

It's miles, miles bigger than a few less ready meals in M&S for a month or two, or a few lorries queueing from time to time until Christmas.

The uk population made an enormous decision which will affect the country for multiple decades or centuries to come in terms of its relations with Europe and the rest of the world. We changed direction and headed off as an independent country once again.

Short term disruption will be worth it in the decades and centuries to come.

UK already trades with the USA. It is UKs largest single export market in terms of an individual Country.
As a member of the EU the UK is not entitled to make trade deals, particularly free trade deals, direct with other Countries. Any such deal will be negotiated by EU

So why if the USA is the UK largest single export market whilst the UK is a member of the EU, do we need to leave the EU ? How will this benefit the UK ?

What like all those Japanese cars made in Sunderland

The Sunderland plant is mostly assembly as opposed to manufacture.

How does UK operating under WTO rules contradict the GFA?

Well, it doesn't so long as we import goods and food that conform to EU standards.

I do find it hard to comprehend that presumably intelligent people cannot see that once the UK moves away from EU standards (the whole point of brexit) then a border between ROI and NI becomes a necessity.
Put infrastructure in (anywhere) and someone will shoot at it, then it needs policing, they get shot at, then we put the army in ..... end of GFA.... for those that say we shouldn't pander to the terrorists - well, say that to the parents of the first british soldier killed in ulster?

Criminality will also need to be stopped/limited, these folk wont be in a trusted trader scheme, so border patrols and checks needed... see above.

Janista love that you have upped the anti from decades to centuries, that's proper hardcore that is, the benefits of Brexit will be appreciated once you and everyone you know is dead

So why if the USA is the UK largest single export market whilst the UK is a member of the EU, do we need to leave the EU ? How will this benefit the UK ?

It enables UK to set its own tariffs and standards. At present UK is being denied cheaper alternatives from outside the EU due to regulatory requirements designed to protect EU; food suppliers, manufacturers, etc.

We changed direction and headed off as an independent country once again.

Janista excepted because she chose to leave the country anyway.

Short term disruption will be worth it in the decades and centuries to come.

Aye easy to say from Australia. Pure cheek.

Tullow are all the parts that go into the assembled cars manufactured in Japan then ?

At present UK is being denied cheaper alternatives from outside the EU due to regulatory requirements designed to protect EU; food suppliers, manufacturers, etc.

As a member of the EU does that not also mean protection for UK food suppliers, manufacturers etc ?

Absolutely laughable that the government have announced an extra £2bn towards no deal prep that includes recruiting new customs staff and developing new IT infrastructure for a no deal exit that would happen in 90 days time.

How long does the average IT system in the UK take to build and implement? How long does it take to recruit and train customs staff (who have no infrastructure to work with anyway)?

This is all showboating by the government. If they do decide to edit with no deal, it will be with zilch actual preparation which will be a disaster for the UK. That's why I think they have no real intention of leaving with no deal, although they are so incompetent I absolutely wouldn't put it past them to crash out accidentally.

I see @Tullow2016 is doing what tbe Americans call "doubling down" on a position they know is dodgy just to save face. No sign of you being prepared to compromise yet @Tullow2016 .
And @Janista is just shut stirring their way into the Australian summer.

Fully functioning government IT system delivered in 90 days, shall we add in on budget for good measure

The main issue of course with the pamphlet is that 52% will ignore it, after all ignoring government advice is what got us into this pickle in the first place

It enables UK to set its own tariffs and standards

You mean that the UK will have to lower standards when we trade with the USA otherwise there will be no trade deal. Yippeee chicken washed in chemicals and sale of the NHS

then a border between ROI and NI becomes a necessity

As per EU regulations, yes. However, WTO does not specify that countries control their borders. The link below provide an insight;

www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

This is where I think Johnson is playing clever as follows:

UK leaves EU without a trade deal

UK then has to follow WTO rules

NI (which is UK territory) then trades under WTO which does not require border control

ROI as member of EU has to follow EU rules and check goods supplied from countries outside the EU, in this case NI, before they enter the EU territory. At present there does not appear to be a technological solution to do this without some form of infrastructure at the border.

Any form of border control between ROI and NI would represent a breach of the GFA, but such breach would be the result of action taken by ROI and EU as opposed to UK

WTO tariffs are very high on products such as beef. So in the event of a no deal brexit tariffs on beef could add as much as 50% to the cost of Irish Beef and 35% to milk produced in ROI.

Hence, Ireland is understandably not in favour of a no deal brexit