To be terrified of no deal Brexit

[elprup]

Having just watched the headlines, it really does seem that Boris is hellbent on taking us out with no deal. The fact he’s thrown down the gauntlet to the EU stating that he won’t come to the table unless they drop the backstop - well of course they’re not going to do that, and Boris won’t back down, so we will be leaving with no deal.

What do you think will be the repercussions of this? I’m terrified I’m going to lose my job and my home. If I’m worried then I can’t imagine what people reliant on various meds are going through.

I think I might stop watching the news as it just makes me anxious.

Nicola Sturgeon is just the worst sort of grievance politician.

Scotland would be a very insignificant player economically and in many other ways "within" Europe.

Scotland's importance to the world economy has declined over decades as new markets have opened up around the planet and emerging economies have grown.

This holds true for the uk at large as well, but the relative decline in Scotland has been greater.

The EU has concentrated power and wealth at its heart, Scotland would always be a peripheral region and see further decline outside of the Uk but within the EU, and would be perpetually dependent on hand outs but with new and more distant "masters".

I can't believe a majority of scots would be comfortable with that.

It is very disturbing that such a strong country as the uk is considering this prostration to an unelected foreign power.

Janista,

Brexit has triggered much nationalism among the 4 member states of the UK. In terms of EU the UK is ONE MEMBER. That UK has 4 parts is immaterial to the EU.

The division arises as although the overall result of 2016 was a majority to leave the EU, both NI and Scotland as components of the UK voted to remain in the EU. However, it is worth noting that in 2014 Scotland voted to remain in UK in greater numbers than voted to remain in EU in 2016. How many of those in Scotland who voted remain in UK were swayed by Cameron's statement that it made EU membership certain can't be measured, but likely have played a part judging by the 2016 vote.

NI is more complicated. For decades there were troubles and violence as many on the island of Ireland did not like the separation into NI and ROI as it was seen to be a continuation of British rule. Go back further to the mid 1800s and potato famine, which some think was an attempted genocide by England, it is easy to understand why relations between Ireland and England are strained.

The GFA was completed in 1998 with the object of reducing hostilities and seems to have been successful in achieving that goal.

That UK, as a single member of the EU, voted overall to leave EU and is going to do so deal or no deal if Johnson is correct is seen by both NI and Scotland as yet another;

"hey you small fry do as you are told by big brother"

So rather than be bossed about forever they are talking of independence from the UK. Nothing wrong with that and some might say it would be a continuation of what has happened over the centuries whereby the British Empire has reduced in size as former colonies have chosen to go it alone. At its peak the empire was 25% of World population and the largest the World has ever seen with a population that is greater than the current EU population.

The impasse arises as honoring both the GFA and the result of the 2016 referendum is not easy to achieve as EU regulations on movement of goods between EU and non EU countries would contradict the GFA in terms of border control between NI and ROI. There is talk of technology solution, but so far nothing has been seen. If someone can invent a technology solution they should be given the Nobel Prize.

I think this is why Johnson has said to EU;

"Remove the backstop or it is no deal"

A no deal means that UK would have to trade on WTO rules. How does that solve the border issue? It does not, but WTO rules do not specify border controls. So Johnson can sit back and say to EU;

"if you want to control goods entering ROI from NI get on with it yourselves"

The underlying strategy being that it would be EU that is tampering with the GFA as opposed to UK.

A suggestion was to make NI a special economic zone. I would have supported that as it seemed to solve everything. However, DUP, ERG and Brexit hardliners did not like that as it was seen to separate NI from UK. Also possible that Scotland would have wanted the same special treatment.

Conclusion is that it is never possible to please everyone at same time. Most likely outcome is that UK leaves EU with no deal and the UK breaks up. NI eventually reconnects with ROI and Scotland votes for independence as UK departure from EU entitles them to another referendum.

The UK has got itself into a sorry messif it is considering allowing itself to be broken up into separate states like this.

What happened to compromise and respecting results of a referendum.

Just seems like people want to run off in a huge hissy fit if a decision doesn't suit them.

Nicola Sturgeon didn't accept the result of the Scottish referendum in 2014 even though it was decisive and she has bitched and moaned about a second one ever since.

The same with Brexit.

One thing is for sure there won't be any more referendums for a while in the uk.

The UK has got itself into a sorry mess if it is considering allowing itself to be broken up into separate states like this

Sadly, yes. However, it has been on the cards for a long time I would say. Underlying reason is that although UK has 4 members, the largest member, England, is 85% of the total UK population. NI and Scotland often complain that they are left out and forced to follow the leader due to their smaller numbers.

What happened to compromise and respecting results of a referendum

Same as above. NI and Scotland voted to remain in the EU and feel as though they are being, once again, forced to follow the leader, England.

Just seems like people want to run off in a huge hissy fit if a decision doesn't suit them

That has been the case in UK for as long as I can remember. Even the results of General Elections are challenged on the basis of those who voted for the Party that was elected are stupid and believed all the false promises made before the election. According to Labour supporter the only reason Conservatives won the 1983 election was UK won the Falklands war and the majority they won kept them in power till 1997.

Nicola Sturgeon didn't accept the result of the Scottish referendum in 2014 even though it was decisive and she has bitched and moaned about a second one ever since

Most of the Scots I know do not like that woman at all and think she will be the destruction of Scotland if it leaves UK. However, the caveat of the 2014 referendum was that there could be another referendum if there was a material change after 2014. If Brexit takes place I would say that entitles Scotland to another referendum as UK leaving the EU is a significant material change.

The same with Brexit

Remain supporters argue that Leave won because of illegal acts by Leave campaign and the result should be ignored. Other arguments are that leave supporters are stupid and could not see the lies they were told prior to the referendum.

One thing is for sure there won't be any more referendums for a while in the uk

UK MPs voted against a second EU referendum, thankfully.

Nicola Sturgeon didn't accept the result of the Scottish referendum in 2014 even though it was decisive and she has bitched and moaned about a second one ever since.

As Farage did about the first UK Referendum, and bitched and moaned ever after and would have done so had Leave not won the last Referendum.

I take it you will be selling up in Australia, Janista and will be rushing back to the UK come 1st November. You surely won't want to miss out on being at the start of a wonderful new post Brexit Britain (or England, if you prefer).

@Janista why have tbe government just announced they are going to be spending £2.1 BILLION on No Deal preparations - my tax payer money, not yours because you are in Australia and it doesn't affect you - if it's all going to be brilliant. To stockpile fucking medicine etc etc. Money we didn't need to waste on that because we could have a border in the sea and make NI a special economic zone. And get an orderly Brexit. Not the wankfest waste of money that is No Deal.

As Farage did about the first UK Referendum, and bitched and moaned ever after and would have done so had Leave not won the last Referendum

Poor analogy. Leave won the referendum in 2016 and MPs have since voted against another referendum.

Janitsa point was that some never accept results they don’t like.

@Tullow2016 , I didn't like the result, I accept it and have suggested a way to get an orderly Brexit. Border in the sea and NI as a special economic zone. I will NEVER accept No Deal and no amount of bleating inanities will make me do so.

Janitsa point was that some never accept results they don’t like.

Exactly - stay in the EEC won the first Referendum, but it didn't stop Farage and his ilk bellyaching. Major won the 1992 election which signed up the Maastrict agreement. So it's all been voted for legitimately.

Remember too that it's the ERG MPs who voted against May's deal.

Mardy lot you Leave winners, aren't you? I expect Janista to be selling up in Australia and running back as fast as possible to show that I am wrong.

Middle class woes 😅
If you're like me and live on an estate hand to mouth with two jobs to get by and four kids to look after, you adapt. Just like the farmers in the commonwealth had to adapt over night when we dumped them in favour of Europe. Just like any other country hit with severe conditions, you adapt and make do. Had this country looked after its people and not neglected for decades, the vote would not have happened, but the fact that they seem to want to use Brexit as a reason for everything going down the pan including a quite probable global economic recession, then my opinion is as it was at the start, that leave was always the result that they wanted. Who knows, we just need to adapt to whatever conditions are put on to us.

You don't need to adapt to avoidable shit @VikVal . My solution- which is actually nicked from plenty of other people- gives us an orderly Brexit. You could write to your MP TODAY and say you want a Brexit like the one I suggested.

I am considering a moving back to the uk actually. The thought of a no deal Brexit makes it more appealing despite what some hysterical people like to say!

There were 40 years between the first referendum on staying in Europe (we never had one to join) and the second one which saw us vote to leave.

There was only about a week in 2014 before Nicola Sturgeon was calling for a second Scottish referendum and about a year after the 2016 brexit vote for her to start chuntering on about a so called "people's vote" (2nd referendum).

It is bizarre though watching the uk riven by internal division and dissent and threatening to tear itself apart.

Something we cannot imagine for a moment a country like Australia, or many other countries even considering doing.

Not having this division rammed down my throat on the news every day I suppose might wear me down if I lived in the uk.

Hopefully after the uk has left without a deal, matters will settle quickly and everyone will wonder what all the fuss was about.

Don't wait@Janista . Come now. Don't wait for the dust to settle. Experience it with all your enthusiasm.
By the way, I would love to be wrong. Egg on my face would be a fantastic outcome. But what if you are wrong and your little board game fantasy turns out to be a horrible mess. S'ok, you can stay in Australia if the "dust hasn't quite settled ".

And it's not on tbe news. They do everything to avoid showing it. You'll be fiiiiiiiiiine.

Exactly - stay in the EEC won the first Referendum, but it didn't stop Farage and his ilk bellyaching

That was in 1975 when there were only 9 EU members who were more an equal footing and contributing to the pot. Many things changed between 1975 and 2016 over a period of 41 years.

Major won the 1992 election which signed up the Maastrict agreement. So it's all been voted for legitimately

That was before the Eastern Europe increase in membership.

Main object that leavers have to the EU is that 10 members pay into the pot and the other 18 members take out of the pot

Hopefully after the uk has left without a deal, matters will settle quickly and everyone will wonder what all the fuss was about.

The UK needs trade deals, especially with the EU. So suggesting that no dealing will be a quick and easy solution is laughable. This is going to go on for years and years.

What about the £2.1 billion announced today on No Deal preparations when there is a solution by which we could leave in an orderly way.@Tullow2016 . It's not @Janista 's money because she doesn't live here. But it's yours and mine.

Perhaps we need a GE to settle this once and for all?

If JC got in, could he do any better?

It all boils down to money but I agree with a post above about treating people better.

The political elite were given the wrong result by people, which is why IMHO they want to stay in the EU

If you don’t like the chance of getting the wrong result, don’t give the people the vote.

Now that would be a good argument

If BJ does not deliver on his promise, he is finished and so will be the Conservatives. JC will get in and keep us in the EU, then watch the arguments about that.

I despair at this country at times 😬

If remainers hadn't voted "The Deal" down three times perhaps we wouldn't be facing no deal now. As it is, they blew it and we are out ok oct 31, deal or (more likely) no deal.

Something we cannot imagine for a moment a country like Australia, or many other countries even considering doing*

The UK is not one country though. It is a Union (the name United Kingdom should be a clue) and 3 parts of that union should be allowed to have a say in their future

Do you still think JC wants to Remain?😂 Do you still think it's a Labour vs Conservative split? Have you been hiding under a rock or something?

The ERG voted the deal down @Janista . Did you like WA. Boris Johnson voted for it , btw.

Australia is one country - not 4!!!

I am not Nicola’s biggest fan.

I did not like the way her and Salmond ran the independence campaign.

HOWEVER there has been a material change. The reason for many people to vote to remain in UK was the EU. And we are leaving. We are leaving without a deal due to an out of control extremist government, a Prime Minister who is unelected, Government ministers who have betrayed their country. AND 100% a government who does not have a mandate for the course of action that they are taking.

The funny thing is - a People’s. It’s might actually give them this mandate but they prefer to remove all forms of democracy to ensure they as individuals make a shit load of money...........

What about the £2.1 billion announced today on No Deal preparations when there is a solution by which we could leave in an orderly way.@Tullow2016

The orderly solution of NI being a special economic zone was not accepted by MPs and WA was voted down 3 times, even by remain MPs.

As for the 2.1 Billion it is called;

wasting someone else's money is easy

Governments around the World are experts in this field as it requires no advance planning.