Westminstenders: The Imperial March

[RedToothBrush]

There are many ways to enforce power indirectly using privilege. Jacob Rees Mogg knows every trick in the book and dresses it up as respectability rather than a subtle form or intimidation and deliberate exclusion.

It's not the stuff 'of the people'.

Meanwhile the newly crowned PM, is making rather a bug deal of how he is the man 'of the people', here to serve them and to deliver their will.

There's a big theme here about presenting as 'of the people' whilst simultaneously serving the interests of the elite and reestablishing its power over the people.

It's a theme that is set to run for some time, and is entrenched in Trumpism too.

This shift in power is particularly harmful to women it must be noted.

'Strong and stable' was 'weak and wobbly' and we should be mindful that in the era of reversed spin, what 'of the people' signifies.

We've long known about the authoritarianism at the heart of leaving thinking. It's only now that it's finally going to start stomping it's feet all over our freedoms and power.

The road back will be a long and hard one because we failed to spot the threat and the dangers of it.

And wrt benefits going...

Brexshitters want a bonfire of "red tape"

Red tape = maternity rights, workers rights, benefits...

Leavers won't care until it affects them - and then they will blame the EU anyway....for our own govt persuing a catastropohic act of self harm.

megan they've been releasing brexit notices on the gov website since last August which included "in the unlikely event of no deal" details. The NHS is already diverting funding for more unusual cancer treatments to the preparations for no deal. Patients have already been impacted.

Megan with all due respect, how do you know remainers haven't changed people's minds?

Not like we know numbers other than those from 3 years ago, is it?

Brexshitters want a bonfire of "red tape"

Grenfell.

Joanna There has been some hyperbole here about what this govt will / can do in practice,
as distinct from the wet dreams of some Tory Brexiters and authoritarians

What we are more likely to see is freezing benefits and pensions for a few years, but not abolishing them
Also continuing the tightening up to exclude more people from benefits

Worst case:
Other developed countries whose economies have crashed in the past haven't abolished benefits,
but they have slashed them - and public sector pensions too, plus other extreme austerity measures

This, along with shortages & price rises, would probably cause civil disorder, which would in turn cause the govt to use harsh Emergency Powers to maintain order

NI and Scotland would be of particular concern

However, let's see if the Keynesian spending spree includes maintaining current levels of benefits
and also how well govt prepping can avoid shortages

Nothing will stop the trade deficit rocketing after No Deal.
This will really bite after about 6 months, as reserves run out, with businesses going under / cutting back / moving out of the UK, unemploymen rising etc

It is a question of how long all this lasts;

a question probably of when the UK blinks and accepts the 3 EU preconditions - backstop, exit bill, expat rights - for trade talks after No Deal.

Here megan www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-cancer-treatment-delay-radiation-sirt-bristol-life-saving-a8896181.html

Once we accept those preconditions, so the EU agree to start trade talks, then GATT Article 24 can be applied

Iambuffy - Sorry if it came across that I was disbelieving you because I am aware that is the case. Jo Maugham filed paperwork with the courts today to try and stop Parliament being prorogued. I know BJ wants to try that to get no deal through.

What ISN'T the case, is that Parliament HAS been prorogued. Nor is it necessarily the case that even if it was, in order to force no deal Brexit through, that it would remain prorogued afterwards.

I agree with 99% of the stuff posted on here. I am a staunch remainer and have posted a fair bit under other names.

I am simply saying: reality is horrific enough. The facts are terrifying. When opinion about the possible worst case scenarios the country could face, is presented as fact, how does that help anyone?

Some of us are only hanging on to our mental health by the skin of our teeth. Respected posters posting apocalyptic versions of the future which isn't based in fact, is not helpful. It also feeds into the Project Fear narrative of leavers.

Is it factual or helpful to say the civil service will have to swear an oath, children of remainers will be removed and benefits will go? Aside from if it does happen, being able to say "I was right"?

When several posters have said they are trying to keep informed but are struggling with the situation at the moment, maybe it would be kinder to not start trying to predict the future and pass it off as fact.

That's all I am saying.

megan And the worries Age UK has on brexit and elderly social care

www.ageuk.org.uk/our-impact/campaigning/care-in-crisis/brexit/

I agree with you, Joanna. Some people on here do present opinion as fact, and it's not fair on people who are vulnerable for whatever reason to do that.

Opinion should be stated as such.

@BigChocFrenzy - thank you, that sounds more realistic. Making it harder to get them and not increasing/cutting them sounds more likely.

Its just such a sweeping statement to say "they will go, mark my words". It is fucking terrifying. The facts are already scary enough without hyperbole added to it.

@NoWordForFluffy - thank you that's all I am asking for.

I don't want to feel that I cant stay informed by reading the threads, its just does affect mental health and is frightening when opinion is presented as fact.

joannacuppa valid points. Ohbadbadkitten said something of a simular theme this morning. And I've said repeatedly (even more so then WHERE'S THE MEDICATION LIST ) is it ent over til it's over. But this thread has always had a slice of people worrying and being anxious. Today I read some of the more wilder speculation as that.

BigChoc I want to ask for an explanation, to understand what you say about the "trade deficit rocketing after no deal". But I'm not sure I'll be able to grasp the detail?

@HazardTired - yep, lots of us are struggling. My partner and I are also in the same situation re meds. I have stockpiled a fair amount but it won't last forever. And not all meds CAN be stockpiled. I have only managed by not taking all that I am prescribed. At least I can barter tramadol and pregabilin for food 😀

I truly hope that your DH's are sorted (and if you need a certain anti-epileptic drug, please PM me ;))

For those of us totally dependent on society, the feeling of vulnerability is bloody awful.

There are some known things that will happen, such as our exports being hammered for a long time
and then there is a bandwidth of possibilities for other problems

Noone can predict with certainty because noone has attempted anything like Brexit before
and we have the most unscrupulous, chaotic & incompetent govt in modern times, so their actions & reactions are unpredictable

Then there all the problems noone thought of
and problems cascading as time goes on
and the civil service and govt having to handle many serious problems simultaneously ......

By the way, I was joking re the drugs before anyone reports me for dealing online! 😀

Thank you! I think it was your "nothing can stop" that intrigued me. My b grade at o'level economics taken 35 years ago in actual fact only takes me so far I realise!

Does anyone have a view on whether the government will block a Scottish referendum?

tobee My opinion why the trade deficit will rocket:

The pound is expected to sink after No Deal, which will increase the price of those imports that have to be bought in Euros or dollars

At the same time - and more importantly - our EU exports will be badly hit, because we will be treated as a 3rd country by the EU
The EU takes about 45% of our exports, by far our largest market.

Under WTO rules, they wil have to apply tariffs to our goods - making them more expensive to buy -

and also add NTBs (Non-Tariff Barriers)
i.e. instead of the current frictionless trade, there will be border checks, documentation of all kinds required .... more time & expense

Our exporters are poorly prepared for this new system, according to HMRC and others

One UK sector particularly hard hit is agriculture / farming:
The EU may not allow in any UK food imports at all, until we are on their database, which can take 6 months
I don't remember if their unilateral No Deal measures softened this

As well as the EU trade, we lose most of our other trade deals - and the few "rollovers" Liam Fox managed to get are mostly not as good as the original deal
e.g. Switzerland

So most of these countries will also apply new tariffs and NTBs

Some overseas customers will be worried because they don't know how the new system will work for their country, or they expect it to add costs.
So they will switch to other suppliers, at least until it is clearer how the UK will trade after Brexit.

pamper BJ has just stated he would block a Scottish referendum
I believe him, because almost all the Tory party would demand he block it

pamperramper - yes, the (UK) Government will block the necessary Section 30, required to hold Indyref2.

But if there is a hung parliament after the next GE, then the "price" for a C&S arrangement with Labour & the LibDems will be the Section 30 notice . I doubt that the SNP would be prepared to talk to the Conservatives though - it's taken them long enough to get rid of the Tartan Tories description (hasn't been true for over 20 years but there are still a few who hold it against them ) that they wouldn't take the risk of it being re-applied. Plus the Conservative leadership would sell its own granny, so can't be trusted a millimetre an inch (even less than most politicians can be trusted ).

Without that, the SNP would be looking for support from others (maybe the Council of Europe - which is not the same as the European Council ) or the UN (which includes a commitment to "the right to self determination") but I'm not holding my breath, given the current UK Government's apparent willingness to throw an international treaty (the GFA) under a bus

tobee Also, in order to prioritise essential imports like meds, food etc,
the govt is trying to avoid Calais in particular being logjammed by Uk exports

Hence, they may restrict exports on ferries

Ferry companies have said they will refuse any UK lorres without all the correct documentation
However, both the ferry companies and the exporters will have to learn new systems and apply them correctly from day 1
That probably won't go smoothly, as we know many exporters haven't even applied for the necessary HMRC forms

All things that will hold up exports and lose orders

Thank you BigChoc.

So why are we doing this again?

One quote (ish): 'They said the sky would fall in, but yet here it still is.' This had me shouting 'We've not left yet you thick twat!' at the TV!

Was that Douglas Murray? This Douglas Murray? www.theguardian.com/books/2017/may/06/strange-death-europe-immigration-xenophobia