Germany's economy in freefall

[urbanlife]

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/25/german-economy-free-fall-exhausted-draghi-loses-magic/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

So leaving on WTO terms looks like a very sound choice. Germany props up the entire EU superstate pretty much.

I for one am feeling much more optimistic by the day.

Report me for calling the ERG a bunch of twats. And for saying how and why we could have left already. Go on.

My view is that there aren't (m)any advantages to leaving the EU, and a majority of MNers agree with me, hence the pro-remain threads.

However, if we accept the view that the EU is a sinking ship (which I don't, but for the sake of argument), then we should indeed leave. HOWEVER, leaving should be done in an orderly way, with the withdrawal deal and with sensible arrangements in place for future cooperation and gradually we can loosen ties. It should not be an overnight thing.

Boris says he wants to mobilise the whole country for no deal. Why the heck should I be mobilised for something that is going to damage the country and me? There are zero advantages to leaving the EU without a deal.

Telegraph employs Johnson so lost interest immediately in the spat that follows.

Many of my remainer friends have quietly said they are now looking forward to leaving

If they are looking forward to leaving, they are not remainers.

I do feel worried for these people that support remain so ardently, because I can not see in the longer term how the euro will possibly survive another crash like the one we had in 2008.

As it is, most of the eurozone has not recovered from the last crash. Countries like Italy will be forced to leave the euro, and have in fact already set up a new currency in anticipation. Had Greece done the same prior to 2008 they could have had a softer landing with the IMF.

The EU project has failed in some ways, it has delivered in other ways. The prosperity of all types of nations being hemmed into one currency has been the biggest disaster, especially for the weaker smaller countries. The benefits of free travel has benefitted eastern european and those companies looking for cheaper labour.

On balance many changes will need to be made within the commission for it to survive, but I fear the commission lives in a bubble, and only the reality of a biting recession across the euro area will pierce through and and force the reforms that are so badly needed.

I no longer support Remain ardently. I think you'll find most so called "Remain posters" accept that we are going to Leave. We all hate No Deal and will never sign up to it. It speaks volumes about your ability to analyse that you can't see that. Oh, yeah, and we ask questions.

bellinisurge
It’s not about your views on the ERG fgs, it’s your putdowns towards the op.
You’re clogging up this thread with silly posts like have you drunk the koolaid - which adds nothing to the conversation.
This is why leavers don’t post anymore, they’re sick of being heckled.

Can you define "freefall"?

The German economy is expected to grow by about 0.5% this year and 1.4% next year.

probs You have missed out the part in the years running up to the referendum the efforts of all previous UK governments to reform the EU form the inside. Reforms that would benefit everyone. However they got absolutely nowhere. The monolithic EU Commission can not and will not change, and the idea that we can creep gently away in an orderly fashion is for the birds. Why?

Because it is not the interests of the EU for the UK to gently ease out probs for all the empty words, they would like an example to be made so that no one else leaves. So now we have a gun at our head, we need to stand up to the bullying EU Commission. This is the moment, right now, because there is no easy way out I am afraid.

The EU would have been better advised to show generous goodwill when the vote came through for leave, I genuinely believe that if the EU had held the door open and said rejoin at any time (on eu terms of course) this would have given a self confident and polished response and then surely this would have served the EU far better. Trying to force countries to stay makes the EU look desperate and abusive.

I think we will cope without you happy

Just wondering how easy Scotland would find it to leave the UK when looking at how complex the Brexit process has been so far.

Also is there any guarantee that a successful independence ref would be honoured and implemented?

*Many of my remainer friends have quietly said they are now looking forward to leaving

If they are looking forward to leaving, they are not remainers*

And if that doesn't sound like text book cult style behaviour I don't know what does.

What happened to informed opinion? Listening to all views? Weighing up differing views? Jeez. What a sad state of affairs.

@tomtom1999xx , if you can't take a bit of ridicule you are really going to struggle in an economically difficult No Deal situation. It's a bit snowflake-y to be sooo sensitive.

"What happened to informed opinion? Listening to all views? Weighing up differing views? Jeez. What a sad state of affairs."

You might well ask . You don't seem able to do it.

misti look it up in the dictionary or ask the German financial experts, that is how their analysts described it, not me.

soro Well if Nicola has been watching for the last three years she should be very very alarmed. I know I would be if I was a SNP supporter. If votes are no longer respected, then what is the point of Scotland having one might be a good place to start?

Or perhaps they would be happy to have the best of three, five, ten too?

There was to be no new indyref unless something major change the political situation. Does Brexit not count?

misti look it up in the dictionary or ask the German financial experts, that is how their analysts described it, not me.

You mean it's how a pro-Brexit newspaper who employs our PM described it.

Do you, personally, describe 0.5% GDP growth as "freefall"? I have checked the dictionary and freefall has the word "fall" in it. However the German economy is still growing, inflation is low, they have a budget surplus and consumer demand is strong.

Is this your personal definition of "freefall" and are you a native English speaker?

bellini On the contrary. I thought about voting remain for many months after doing a fair amount of intensive research I made my decision.

I can understand that for some people it is a frightening prospect. They may feel the UK is a small island nation and needs to be attached to something bigger than us. I have more confidence in our military to protect us so this doesn't worry me, but I can see why some would worry.
Or remainers may worry for job security or relations between us and Europe. I, myself believe we can cut red tape and really help business, but I understand you may not agree. Relations will improve with the EU when we have left, and they can crack on and fully integrate without the UK holding them back.

In the end it is a decision made by each of us to vote for the future. The leave vote won, and would win again today.

I prefer the prospect of being an independent nation again, making global deals and remaining democratic. I accept you disagree.

PS Bellini you wanna argue this one, pick the gaping holes in the non-existent argument made by someone who doesn't appear to speak fluent English.

Urbanlife, Scots has been treated with contempt by the stories for far too long.

David Cameron told Scots that to remain in Eu they needed to stay in UK.

More Scots voted to remain in EU than stay in UK.

Who knows why will happen up there. But I do believe that Scotland deserves another referendum because of the changes that have happened since 2014. Although that referendum should only happen if UK does leave the EU.

Boring. 2019. It's all about No Deal or not unless we accept a border in the sea.
I won't accept No Deal. I'll tolerate anything else.

misti you can find it in every single paper regardless of political leaning. Look at my links or I will post them again for you:

www.ft.com/content/419e9408-ac7d-11e9-8030-530adfa879c2

www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/24/deutsche-bank-job-cuts-trigger-biggest-loss-since-financial-crisis-business-live

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-24/germany-s-factories-go-from-bad-to-worse-as-economy-treads-water

Yes, German manufacturing has slowed down and one bank has laid some people off.

But the economy is still expected to grow by 0.5% this year, and your post refers to the German economy, not manufacturing or one German bank.

So, in what sense is 0.5% growth "freefall", unless you don't clearly understand the English word "fall" and how it is different from "growth". Are you an English speaker?

just I agree. I support democracy in all forms. Of course Scotland should have another vote after we have left. I could not agree more. It is not the brexiteers that have the issue with it. We hope Scotland will stay, but not with a gun to her head. We would like you to vote to remain part of the UK, but you must decide.

But lets get the referendum vote honoured, and then we can discuss what comes next. If you want to live in a democracy you have to start by respecting the vote result. It all starts and finishes with that.