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Brexit

No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

496 replies

bellinisurge · 03/07/2019 20:14

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 20:13

Aquilla
Is that your carefully worked out plan or something you got from the Daily Mail?

Isthisafreename · 05/07/2019 20:22

@Aquilla -No deal is soooooo much better than the bottom fucking we will get from any EU sanctioned 'deal'. Is that clear enough for you?

Care to explain, as no, it's not clear?

The EU have given a lot more than would have been expected. They will not break up the 4 pillars. They will not throw Ireland, north or south, under the bus. The reason the current deal is so unpalatable to the UK is because the UK did not consider the impact of their red lines on the GFA. The EU is simply insisting the UK uphold an international peace treaty signed with a member state.

Aquilla · 05/07/2019 20:24

letsrunfar you are dead right. The snobbery is incredible.

bellinisurge · 05/07/2019 20:28

DUP should realise that making NI a special economic zone postpones the inevitable demographic change which will make them a minority.

OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 05/07/2019 20:29

Aquilla
This is the theme of this thread.

No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

Would you like to offer any reasonably thought out downsides or upsides to Brexit?

People who wanted to remain would like to see some possible reasons why they should get behind leaving, but so far there has been very little by way of reasoned discussion from the 'leave' camp.

TheBigBallOfOil · 05/07/2019 21:02

Not sure what snobbery has to do with it, unless you believe that reasoned and informed discussion is the sole province of the upper classes.
Very odd outlook on life.

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 04:07

why has it taken 3 years for the UK government to come up with ACHIEVABLE benefits

Because T May is a remainer who was give a leavers Job.

Like asking Muslims to sell bacon sandwiches outside of a Christian church. They won't try hard to achieve something they never wanted.

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 04:15

The EU is simply insisting the UK uphold an international peace treaty signed with a member state

So lets build a freeport zone on the coast of Belgium. It is 65km long so there is enough space.

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 04:21

And why is my suggestion of a border in the sea (not an actual wall for those who think I mean that) such an anti democratic version of Leave?

As per the GFA and WA the border has to be offshore. So build one.

That solves the GFA, but not the WA which allows EU to reject UKs border suggestions for eternity which would result in No Brexit.

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 04:26

Quite aside from that, the referendum was advisory so the result need not be implemented. Additionally, the leave campaign was found to breach electoral law. The only reason the result could not be set aside was because the referendum was advisory rather than binding. You could make a very strong argument that in this instance the democratic course of action would be to set aside the result as that is what would have happened had the referendum been binding

Article 50 was voted in by 500+ MPs after the referendum.

Conservative and Labour pledged to honour the result

Brexit Party is second in polls

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 04:29

remain would like to see some possible reasons why they should get behind leaving

The result of a binary vote does not have to be re-demonstrated to the satisfaction of the losing side.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/07/2019 06:05

Well then, luckily for you you won't need to keep posting then, will you Smile

Any other leavers want to answer the thread title? What do we GAIN, other than £90bn hole annually in our budget, if we ND?

lifesnotaspectatorsport · 06/07/2019 07:00

Ok, I'll can't just read this and not answer it.

@LifeContinues Upside of a no deal are;

Proves that government delivered their promise to leave the EU. This restores confidence in government taking into account the number of times Uk government has made manifesto promises for the purpose of being elected only to ignore once they have been elected.

Given how split the country is and will continue to be, I fail to see how adopting the most extreme interpretation of the leave vote is going to restore confidence among the 48% and even more moderate leavers. In fact the conduct of the government and Tory leadership candidates right now is the complete opposite of confidence-restoring. Even if you're right, it will evaporate fast in the face of a car-crash 'no deal' so no lasting benefit.

Potential instant savings of £39 billion. That goes a long way.

Two things: 1) that's only possible by reneging on pre-agreed commitments while a member which is going to be toxic to our international reputation, and 2) this will be wiped out by the estimated £90 billion pound hit to the Exchequer from a no-deal Brexit. It won't 'go' anywhere.

Free to trade directly with other countries without the need for EU approval. The world becomes open. Remember EU is 15% of world trade only.

As EU members we benefit from mutually agreed preferential trade deals with over 60 countries. A no deal exit ends these immediately and IIRC I think Liam Fox has secured interim arrangements with about 9 including such powerhouses as the Faroe Islands and the Palestinian Authority Hmm. As an independent, we are not going to get as good terms with these 60 countries as if we are part of a 28-country bloc, that's just abundantly obvious.

The EU, US, China and Japan account for almost 50% of world trade between them - the 'world' of 200+ splits all of the rest. In addition it is obviously MUCH easier to trade with your nearest neighbours geographically in terms of logistics. Doing a deal with Australia for example will be no help to your just in time industries, fresh food deliveries etc for which our economy is heavily intertwined with Europe. If there were fabulous untapped wealth lying outside those 60 deals the EU has, they'd be chasing them. 'Freedom' is a nice-sounding word that has no relation to the realities of global trade.

Europe GDP growth is nowhere near that of the developing economies which are 85% of the World economy.

Developing economies do not account for 85% of the world economy as mentioned above. In addition for trade it's volume that counts as much as growth, in addition to geography and 'fit'. Brazil may be growing fast but we don't have much call for their major exports.

UK growth as an individual country exceeds the overall growth of the EU. Reason is that it subsides the other 18 EU members who do not pay into the EU, but take money from the EU.

This is untrue. Growth in the EU and Eurozone was higher in the last 12 months than the U.K. The issues with the UK's growth cannot be explained by a net contribution to the EU which is less than 0.7% of our GDP. You're talking actual rubbish here.

No further subscriptions payable to the EU which saves UK 9 Billion per year.

Leavers are obsessed with the money we pay into the EU because it's a figure you can put a name to, unlike the benefits we obtain as a member in terms of ease of trade, access to preferential EU trade deals etc. The hit to our economy from the loss of these, not to mention the services since U.K. is primarily a services economy will easily outweigh the 'saving' on our subscriptions. What about financial services alone? The loss of passporting rights will cripple the City.

In conclusion, your 'upsides' amount to possible temporary political gain and wishful thinking.

*Downsides

This is subjective as no other EU member has left the EU before so there is no hindsight to compare with. However, here is a try:

Free trade access with EU is lost overnight until new deals are made. Chaotic transition WTO very likely*
Agreed, except substitute 'very likely' for 'certain' and maybe expand on the consequences of this such as higher food prices, crises in just in time industries, and Northern Ireland etc

Effect on GFA not clear and GFA may fall by the wayside. Hostilities that GFA was intended to eliminate may reappear
In my opinion this one downside eliminates all your putative upsides.

Not paying the exit bill may discourage other countries from trade deals
Not may, will.

Many other examples could be added for sure

Potential break-up of the U.K. as Scotland votes for independence and violence resumes in Northern Ireland

Inability to tackle the fundamental problems facing the U.K. in health and social care, deprivation, increasing inequality etc owing to ridiculous obsession with self-immolation in the cause of Brexit 'freedom'

I could go on...

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 07:52

Inability to tackle the fundamental problems facing the U.K. in health and social care, deprivation, increasing inequality

This is a valid point as nothing else has been tackled by Government for 3 years. All more the reason to deliver on 31 October 2019 so that UK Government can look at other issues.

bellinisurge · 06/07/2019 07:54

With magic beans to pay for it presumably.

OP posts:
LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 08:15

Remain supporters have had 3 years to push down the throats of Leave supporters that the UK will be worse off, but it does not seem to be working as evidenced by the recent success of the Brexit Party whose policy at present is solely for UK to leave the EU. Likewise the Change UK Party whose policy at present is for UK to remain in the EU has flopped.

So I am convinced that Leave voters did not base their choice solely on financial considerations, but considered intangible benefits too. What exactly they are nobody can say for sure.

lifesnotaspectatorsport · 06/07/2019 08:35

@LifeContinues This is a valid point as nothing else has been tackled by Government for 3 years. All more the reason to deliver on 31 October 2019 so that UK Government can look at other issues.

So are you saying the rest of my points are not valid? Because you've ignored all the evidence against your alleged upsides.

Leaving the EU will not mean time freed up for the government to look at other issues; they'll be dealing with the fallout for years!

1tisILeClerc · 06/07/2019 08:35

{This is a valid point as nothing else has been tackled by Government for 3 years. All more the reason to deliver on 31 October 2019 so that UK Government can look at other issues.}

And why is this? We have already established that the financial contribution to the EU is only around 0.7% and the amount spent by the UK gov on 'domestic activities' is around 70% of GDP, so why have they sat on their arses for 3 years and FAILING to address NHS, schools, roads, invest in industry that will have to magically spring into action on 1 November.

Parker231 · 06/07/2019 08:49

Brexit isn’t going to happen ( thank goodness). The EU won’t reopen discussions and the WA isn’t going to get voted through Parliament. A no deal will be blocked by enough MP’s. There will be a General Election but’s no party will have a majority and will be unable to agree on a way forward regarding Brexit. The last three years has caused huge economic uncertainty and unfortunately that will continue. Britain will loose its position as a major world player as it’s credibility is non existent.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/07/2019 09:09

So I am convinced that Leave voters did not base their choice solely on financial considerations, but considered intangible benefits too. What exactly they are nobody can say for sure.

Said every genius never. Why would anyone think it was 'good' to Brexit on this? The better off won't be affected by poverty - yay! Let's do it! The healthy won't be affected by hospital closures (yet) - let's do that too!

It is all about pride. Some people simply can't admit they voted for chaos and refuse to believe it will be worse. They refuse to read the facts and hear the news and dismiss it all as project fear. They couldn't have voted for a bad thing because they are good people.
Doesn't make it a good decision.

LonelyTiredandLow · 06/07/2019 09:11

@Parker123 remainers and leavers both have said that for 3 years. I'd rather not drop the ball and assume all will come good and prepare for what is more likely; incompetence followed by ND.

LifeContinues · 06/07/2019 09:20

So are you saying the rest of my points are not valid? Because you've ignored all the evidence against your alleged upsides

Not saying that. If UK is certain to be worse off then obviously people voted leave based on intangible benefits. Remain have had 3 years to convince Leavers that UK will be worse off, but it has not made any difference. Brexit Party success and Change UK Party flop tells me that Brexit is very much alive.

A no deal will be blocked by enough MP’s

Thought the motion to allow MPs to block a no deal was defeated 309 votes to 298?

No deal is not the best option, but if EU does not move on WA then it looks like No deal is the only outcome?

Isthisafreename · 06/07/2019 09:38

@LifeContinues - +That solves the GFA, but not the WA which allows EU to reject UKs border suggestions for eternity which would result in No Brexit.*

Do you actually read any of the replies in here? No, it does not solve the GFA issue unless NI remains in the CM and SM, which contravenes one of the UK red lines.

1tisILeClerc · 06/07/2019 09:46

{Brexit isn’t going to happen ( thank goodness).}

Brexit is already happening and I hope 'leavers' are content with what they are getting, because the economy dipped sharply after the referendum, and has not resurfaced yet. Any rises have been due to stockpiling or short lived 'spikes' for a day or so depending on PM's announcements.
Various industries have prepared and are ready to leave at a time they see most suitable.

{No deal is not the best option, but if EU does not move on WA then it looks like No deal is the only outcome?}

The WA (or something identical but in different font size) will be signed, either before or a while after 31 October (unless the UK gets yet another extension).
Signing before the UK crashes out has an advantage of a 'controlled descent' and some possibility to make reasonable deals. If the UK crashes out it will become a 'free for all'. The fire sale will begin and any industry worth having in the UK will be bought out with the probability that it may simply be closed completely after asset stripping as the world trade is diminishing, and it would be a convenient way of killing off competition.

1tisILeClerc · 06/07/2019 09:50

The UK's 'red lines' mean nothing to the rest of the world. The UK is not a dominant power, and if it wants to set red lines that stop the UK negotiating then the rest of the world can happily say 'OK fine' and move on without the UK.
By failing to engage, the UK is writing itself into history.

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