No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

[bellinisurge]

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

For those saying that a no deal won’t be a disaster, how do you think supplies for the just in time production industries and food supplies will work?

By failing to engage, the UK is writing itself into history.

This is what dying Empires do. OK our Empire is dead, apart from being kept on life support with a few overseas territories and delusions that the Commonwealth is really Empire, but it's the very last gasp before the machine is switched off and the plug pulled out.

NI remains in the CM and SM

Up to 31 December 2020 at latest by which time the protocol was meant to be superseded by agreement between EU and UK. However, the WA wording left it open ended as no obligation on EU to accept any proposal. So 31 December 2020 would be extended forever.

{However, the WA wording left it open ended as no obligation on EU to accept any proposal. So 31 December 2020 would be extended forever.}

If the UK government continues to bugger around and not negotiate anything positive, then yes it COULD extend forever. The UK is the one causing the problem, as the EU is not the one leaving. It will not go on forever, the losses that the UK is incurring on the EU will not be tolerated for much longer. The EU27 can propose and eventually write a condition into a treaty that allows expulsion (it would take a few years but it would get high priority). If you were a haemophiliac and started bleeding profusely, would you leave it a few days before seeking medical attention?
Currently the UK will leave by default on 31 October, and the UK will have to ask the EU negotiators very nicely to get another extension.
Officially an extension can be granted if the UK is seen to want a GE or possibly PV, a SIGNIFICANT change in the current state of batshittery, and a demonstrable change of heart. Granting an extension is not going to be automatic, and stunts like Farage and the twats party will certainly dissuade the EU27 to grant an extension.

MeganBacon

There will probably be a huge stimulus package in the event of no deal. Wa would constrain the shape of the stimulus so although it would soften the blow I think the medium term outlook is better under no deal. I’m pretty sure (from memory) that Carney’s forecast did not include stimulus, or much stimulus.

Agree. You are the sole voice of reason on these threads Meganbacon.

I think we will look back on the referendum as a turning point for the UK. I expect big investment in deprived regions, big investment in green technologies, significant tax breaks all round.

Stimulus funded by the magic money tree

{ I expect big investment in deprived regions, big investment in green technologies, significant tax breaks all round}

While it would be nice to think this, the track record of UK governments over many decades suggest that it probably won't happen. It will also be doing this at a point when the Pound will likely devalue sharply.
Out of the EU the UK will be 'fighting' for trade globally, at a point in history where there are very large powerful trade blocs, none of whom will see the UK as a significant 'partner', so the UK will be dictated to by the 'leaders'. Being a member of the EU bloc has/had an advantage in that it is/was a significant partner and had moulded itself to integrate with the EU, plus a major benefit of the aspects of commonality of citizens. A trade deal with the USA will be on USA terms only, and they won't care about citizens. They are not about to offer the people of the UK carte blanche to emigrate to the USA.

Magic money forest the way some MPs talk.

I agree with you on that @LifeContinues

The magic money forest has always been out there. If we No Deal, the govt (which could be Corby or Bojo) will have to make good use of it. And about time too.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-merseyside-48790657

I wonder how many of those favouring a no deal Brexit will be as positive when they start loosing their jobs. I’ve a client who has this week decided to move the remainder of their UK business out to Singapore due to the uncertainty in the UK economy.

Parker. It will be a big change. The car manufacturers that send lorries full of parts back and forth over the channel 24/7 will suffer. It will be the job of the govt to entice other greener industries into the areas hit by the subsequent job losses.
Car manufacture in is in total turmoil. Time to invest in new technologies. We have the skills. And where we haven't, points based immigration will bring more in.

I expect big investment in deprived regions, big investment in green technologies, significant tax breaks all round.

I don't. This could have been happening over the last 30 years and without the major political parties getting a huge kick up their backsides, it won't happen.

@Largs - the UK production industry will be hit horrendous so they all use a just in time approach. It’s wont just be the car industry. Greener industries which take years to develop (and currently rely heavily on EU research funding) wont help those unemployed. The UK doesn’t have the skills as the brightest and the best are looking at leaving the UK.

{It will be the job of the govt to entice other greener industries into the areas hit by the subsequent job losses. }
Sorry to say 'Greener' has a degree of unicorn about it.
Of course doing things in a way that won't destroy the planet is a good thing, but the societal change that will be necessary is MASSIVE.
From cutting back on meat consumption, DRASTICALLY reducing travel and a reappraisal of food production, house construction and so on.
So you have to 'sell' the concept of:
Meat, say once per week.
Walk or cycle to work.
Massive amount of insulation of buildings to keep heat out or in (depending on climate).
Perhaps 1 or 2 plane flights a year.
Design as many products as possible to be repairable and not disposable.

Electric cars are not a 'magic solution'. They move pollution out of apparent sight but are not significantly 'greener' than existing vehicles when you look at the materials needed to manufacture them and production of electricity to run them.

Peregrina
This could have been happening over the last 30 years and without the major political parties getting a huge kick up their backsides, it won't happen.
Agreed. But I think the referendum was the first huge kick and the Euro election result was the second. They have to act now or the next kick could really hurt.

{They have to act now or the next kick could really hurt.}
BoJo and hunt are already thinking of ways to blame the EU, so that will be their 'get out of jail' card for a few years, before it becomes apparent that they have no real plan or wish to 'reform'.

They won't be able to blame the EU if they do manage to Leave. They will have to deliver for the country, or their party will be finished forever.
They do both have good plans for a post-Brexit UK to be fair on them. What they don't have is a convincing plan for getting any kind of Leave to actually happen. Unless they are bold enough to go for a GE.

Neither Jonson or Hunt have produced explicit post Brexit plans, even to their fellow MP’s. All they have done is release to the press a series of wild ideas without any detail or funding to back them up. A number of proposals they have made have already been rejected by other MP’s who would have to vote on them to get them through.

Largs
The 'It was the EU wot dun it' will be the default excuse until probably a year AFTER all negotiations are over, which may be a good 10 years.
Even with a 'crash out' the UK will ultimately have to sign up to the (or A) WA to START negotiations. This will take a year or probably considerably more. Brexit is a long haul, 10 year or more exercise, and will rumble on probably another 20 years in some way.

Some in the EU have admitted they regret not countered the lies that were told by many in the Leave campaigns. They have seen how many in the UK seem to have believed the crap that BoJo and so many others were spouting which the UK press SHOULD have been correcting and calling out, but it seems were mostly complicit.

Some in the EU have admitted they regret not countered the lies that were told by many in the Leave campaigns.

No, that would not have worked, that would have been the EU interfering.

{No, that would not have worked, that would have been the EU interfering.}
It could have been done in a subtle way, by putting the realities of some of the outlandish statements on the EU website for example. Anyway, the time has passed.

I am afraid LeClerc that not many Leavers understand subtlety.

But I think the referendum was the first huge kick and the Euro election result was the second. They have to act now or the next kick could really hurt.

Agree, and Remainers who see only doom and gloom ahead may like to focus on the positives in this. Osborne (whom I utterly loathe since his appalling petty treatment of Theresa May as editor of the Evening Standard so it pains me to say anything good about him) and more recently Hammond have rebuilt the balance sheet of UK plc, and there is capacity for fiscal stimulus. Yes UK may be downgraded but there will still be appetite for our debt. Andy Haldane, the Bank of England's Chief Economist, predicts UK growth at 1.5% for 2019, without mention of stimulus, describes this as "slow but steady" and is talking about a rate hike being necessary (in an article published on the Bank of England's website on 8 June).

In Q1, UK growth was 0.6% compared to EU 0.4% (Source: Bank of England Inflation report May 2019). (The disputed numbers up thread are over a longer historical period I believe, so both posters are correct just over different timelines. It would benefit the debate on this thread if people could be specific and cite their sources when giving numbers or expert opinion).

Yes this could all have happened anyway, but it didn't and it wasn't going to, and now it might. Not definitely, but more likely than before.

{Agree, and Remainers who see only doom and gloom ahead may like to focus on the positives in this.}

I am not going to argue that it wouldn't be welcome for a 'stimulus' because some cash has been found under the sofa BUT the fact there is cash there that has not been spent correcting what leavers and remainers alike have been shouting about for the last 3 years, failure to invest in industry, housing, NHS and so on strongly suggests that the money will not be spent on anything that the poorer in society will see, apart from HS2 and other pet projects. What is the point of a high speed train to get you from one place with few jobs, to another place with few jobs?