No Deal supporters? Can you see any downsides? If so, why are these outweighed by the upsides.

[bellinisurge]

Genuine question. I was prepared to accept WA but that was apparently not sufficient. So, why is No Deal better?

For me, it is about emotion rather than the money.

It is a sense of nationalism. After so long, I would love to say a big fuck you to Tusk, Soubry, Grieve, Umunna, Macron and that twat in Ireland.

If there is an economic crash, so be it. Maybe it will materialise, maybe it won't but I have got nothing to lose anyway. Life will go on.

I also love the drama of a crisis. It makes the news worth watching.

The Deutsche Bank job losses are believed to be nothing to do with Brexit, but do we need more job losses, whatever the cause? That's more people out of work, more people perhaps only finding work at a lower salary so having to cut back on spending, or not being able to afford mortgages or rent?

Where is the buoyant economy that the Brexiters implied was just waiting for us?

that bit. Did you read that bit Bear? In the first post? At 17.56?

Yes I did. And I’d still like to understand how you reach the conclusion that if that inflation is caused by the weak pound, which in turn is a result of Brexit, you can conclude that it doesn’t affect people unless they go abroad.

I kind of admire your honesty winebottle.

I suspect you have further to fall than you think but only time will tell.

Where is the buoyant economy that the Brexiters implied was just waiting for us?

Exactly.

Whatever the cause of job losses, Leavers aren’t exactly queuing up to tell us about the wonderful opportunities we have that will replace them are they?

Not sure if your post is in irony, Winebottle, but if perhaps some leavers could comment on this POV that would be interesting.

Ps I’m British, and this nationalism bullshit makes me sick to the stomach. Htf do we stand together?

Bear.
Because what they care about is inflation. Which may go up, as indeed interest rates might in order to constrain inflation within the target range. They only care about the fx rate when they actually have to convert currency. Importers have to convert currency but the average person just sees that in the form of increased inflation (or increased interest rates to constrain inflation).

FFS megan this is literally pointless.

I can’t comprehend that that you can’t comprehend that Brexit induced inflation will affect people.

But I said in the first post that they "only care about inflation", so your comment above is just ingenuous.

Megan, my Sil was incredibly high up in certain financial circles in this country, before she and my brother fucked off to somewhere with a future. We had long chats many a time about fx rates blah blah inflation blah blah. If you think we can ride this out with a magic money rainforest then I feel you’re sadly deluded.

Megan. Try joining some dots, as others have said.
My reason for mentioning the Deutche Bank was not just that they are being made redundant, which is of course not good, but the bit that you are not getting is that PRE BREXIT the likelihood that they could almost walk into other jobs in the same city was a lot higher. Other banks are not hiring as chunks of the banking industry are moving out of the UK due to Brexit. They rely on passporting and banks operating in many financial sections of the EU have to have their main offices situated in the EU. Some may get offered positions in other European banks but they will have to move to Germany, France or wherever.

For goods manufactured in the UK using raw materials from abroad, the cost of these materials will be rising as the Pound falls.
With new tariffs, adding maybe 10% to the cost of bought in materials, then tariffs again to export the finished goods, that could be nearly 20% hit in cost for the prospective buyer.
BMW have already said that the cost of a Mini made in the UK will cost EU buyers around an extra £1500. Many models of cars are made in Europe and if these tariffs come in, which is what will happen if the UK uses WTO 'base' ratings, UK built cars are simply not viable in the longer run.

megan you started that post by saying This point about the pound in your pocket being worth only 95p matters very little to most people

If you are now agreeing that it will matter to people that their spending power has reduced by 5% because of Brexit induced inflation I think we can all move on

If you think we can ride this out with a magic money rainforest then I feel you’re sadly deluded.
Are you talking about the stimulus package? That was the best suggestion I had to bring the country together, but I acknowledged that it was a very high risk strategy. I'm far from confident about it.

Good look to your SIL and brother by the way.

Let's move on, but no, 5% off the fx rate will not translate into 5% on to inflation.

Thanks Megan, but stimulus package = what exactly?

Why wasn’t this done all along? Why has stuff been pared back to the minimum for god knows how many years? Sack all the police officers and close our libraries. And did that have an effect amongst people re the Brexit vote? Of course. In the meantime has austerity helped our deficit?

Let's move on, but no, 5% off the fx rate will not translate into 5% on to inflation.

Agreed, but it will affect everyone. Most notably the poorest who’s income is predominately spent necessities like food.

And it’s a bit more than 5% if you look at where it came from (more than £1.5 to Us$) to...,,,probably less than parity, so let’s clear that one up.

The stimulus package is a good idea, but it will come at a time of great turmoil and uncertainty and the amount of money suggested so far is woefully inadequate.
The has been talk of a £26 Billion 'war chest'. Well an estimate for the repair of the UK's roads is £9 Billion, and then there is the NHS, Schools, Universal Credit upgrade, Brexit costs (estimated around £90 Billion) and so on, and that is hardly doing anything to redress the failed investment in infrastructure around the UK.
Having just seen the exchange rate for my purchases today, it is 5% lower than 18 months ago.

Yes it's way more than 5% off the fx rate, but amazingly, inflation is still at the target of ..... 2%.

Yes it's way more than 5% off the fx rate, but amazingly, inflation is still at the target of ..... 2%.

And we haven’t actually left yet.........

Brexit is looking so exceedingly positive isn't it.

Fucking peachy

If you want to see what a real disaster looks like, consider Venezuela where recently the inflation rate was over a million percent. Not sure of the actual percentage but the price of everything doubles every 10 days.

The point of talking about the exchange rate is that with luck it will be similar to now on 31 October. Without anything else happening except changing to WTO 'base' conditions where we have zero tariffs with the EU, that jumps to around 10% on Nov 1st. If you remember there was unrest in mid February because goods going by sea to China, which can take 6 weeks, the tariffs that might have been payable when they arrive might have been totally different from when it set off.
Not only will the tariffs change, but the HMRC computer systems to accommodate the changes are not going to be ready in time as the volume of transactions needing tariffs will triple.

@Winebottle - After so long, I would love to say a big fuck you to Tusk, Soubry, Grieve, Umunna, Macron and that twat in Ireland.

I think the Irish have a bit more justification in telling the UK to fuck you to the UK after all this time. But, hey, whatever floats your boat.